At eight o'clock in the evening of the weekend, I sang with several real estate friends on grilled skewers and listened to the live broadcast of a brick house in Qingdao. Everyone found a trumpet, and took turns to ask various tricky questions below, forcing the brick family to change the topic and take out a reserved program - scolding the feng shui master for a quarter of an hour, making everyone laugh.
A friend endured the tears of laughter, chewed the freshly served roasted crispy bones while crunching with me, and joked with me: Brother Needle, you said that our Qingdao real estate market brick family is not true love for you? If he used the kung fu of scolding you for a blind date, he would not have found an object sooner...
At this moment, the real estate brick family in the live broadcast room widened their eyes and began a new round of spitting out fragrance: @#¥%&... (In swearing)
As a result, everyone laughed, and the air inside and outside the live broadcast room was filled with happiness.
Yes, the days pass quickly, it is already 2022, it is time to write a summary and outlook of the Qingdao property market.
In 2021, Qingdao's main city property market analysis
In 2021, Qingdao West Coast property market analysis
In 2021, Qingdao Chengyang property market analysis
Of the three articles Written at the beginning of last year, among the property market writers in the main city who are bullish, emphasize the importance of schools and educational resources, and sing about the decline of the suburbs, I am the only one who predicts that the property market in Qingdao's main city is about to turn down, and unfortunately all of them are in their words.
Therefore, the feng shui master's needle has been repeatedly scolded in the live broadcast room of the brick family in the real estate market, and has even become a reserved program that people in the Qingdao property market have recently heard. In fact, in essence, it is still a showdown between the two major factions of Qingdao's property market "buying the main city" or "buying the suburbs". Of course, personal attacks are not great.
How to buy the Qingdao property market? From an emotional point of view, the main city has a high population density, there are supporting resources is an objective reality, and many old owners, the feelings of the place of residence are still there, resolutely refuse to move the nest, a large number of geographical customers have the need to improve, there is a "realistic basis" for raising house prices.
When the eastern region was developed, many "authentic Qingdao people" in the old West Town, the old Sifang, and the old Cangkou cried their fathers and mothers, and did not go to Maidao and the old man of Shi was already a laughing stock, becoming a "lost generation" in the process of urban expansion, but do you believe that in 2022, there is still old Qingdao can say so? However, there are, and there are many.
However, from a rational point of view, Qingdao's purchase of housing, giving priority to buying suburbs, buying suburbs, and buying suburbs is a point that we have emphasized very much in recent years. Why is there such a point of view? And still insist? The reason is very simple: qingdao's main city, housing prices are inflated.
Qingdao's main city of housing prices in the end is too much, if you only look at Qingdao a city and a place is difficult to draw conclusions, the following figure is Ningbo, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Xi'an, Jinan and other sister cities and Qingdao districts of the house price list.
It is not difficult to see on the figure that in the case of the average house price in Ningbo, which is 10,000 yuan / square meter higher than that of Qingdao, the Yinzhou District with the highest house price can only rank third in Qingdao, which is slightly lower than the level of the south district of the city. And Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Xi'an, Jinan (and even can include Chengdu, Chongqing), which have housing prices similar to Qingdao, the most expensive areas in the main city are often the level of Qingdao North, and what's more, the most expensive areas in Xi'an and Zhengzhou can't even catch up with Licang.
From the perspective of statistics, the "variance" and "deviation" of housing prices between various districts in Qingdao are a bit large.
This phenomenon can be explained for various reasons, such as the pleasant climate of Qingdao's main city, warm winter and cool summer, high happiness index, or excessive concentration of high-quality educational resources, and some people explain that from the urban area to the west coast, the high-tech zone, the Shanghai Cooperation need to cross the sea, to the Blue Valley need to climb the mountain...
The huge gap between the housing prices in Qingdao's main city and suburban sectors, and the obvious high housing prices in the main city in cities with comparable GDP, the formation of this phenomenon may make sense, but the results of several major harms caused by the phenomenon are indisputable:
First, due to the high housing prices in Qingdao's main city, there has been population loss and aging.
There is a saying: Zhengzhou Erqi, Xi'an Yanta, Wuhan Wuchang, Jinan Lixia these areas, although the housing prices are only the level of Qingdao North, or even Licang, but the education, medical resources, and job opportunities gathered in these areas are certainly not comparable to Shibei and Licang, and even better than Shinan and Laoshan.
When faced with high housing prices in Qingdao's main city:
Qingdao local natives will say: the elderly to see a doctor, the wife to work, the eldest to go to school, the second to enter the nursery, qingdao main city of this place, the house is expensive and rotten also have to buy ah!
Foreign buyers will say: this price, such a quality, if you come to Qingdao can only choose such a house, then why do I come to Qingdao as a leek? Isn't it nice to go to other cities?
Laoshan 50,000 yuan of "blocking discs", other cities such low-quality communities may be unique, even the reverse of the property market teaching materials, but in Qingdao, but sold some people's sense of superiority, even known as mansions ...
In the face of high housing prices, what red tiles and green trees, blue sea and blue sky, warm winter and cool summer are pseudo-propositions, then the inference is very simple, qingdao's main city, the population of the "four districts in the city", the probability of the situation is only in and out.
From the 2021 "Seven Pu" population data of the population changes in each district of Qingdao's main city, our derivation is directly supported by detailed data:
On the climate, on the historical background, on the education and medical resources, Shinan is undoubtedly the best area in Qingdao, but the population loss of Shinan District in ten years is more than 10%.
The birthplace of Qingdao dialect, drinking draft beer, and playing enough grades, countless old Qingdao hearts and minds, full of feelings in Shibei District, after reaching the peak of population in 2018, it also began to decline year by year.
With severe population loss, there is also a deep aging, from the official data, the aging rate of the city south district has reached a staggering 26%, less than four people have one is over 60 years old.
Another friend who works in an office told me internal data that the street with the highest average age in Qingdao is Badaxia Street, 57 years old, followed by Shuiqinggou Street, 53 years old. This data is not confirmed from the Internet, but it does not look so bad. Listen and analyze.
Many Qingdao people, talking about the high housing prices in Shinan and Laoshan, are especially willing to use high-housing cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Xiamen to make comparisons.
But the problem is that Hangzhou's annual population increased by 550,000, the smallest Xiamen increased its annual population by 180,000, and Qingdao had 100,000. Of these 100,000 people, 110,000-12 million additional people went to Chengyang and the west coast - which means that these two districts will also "draw blood" from the main city.
Why do everyone say that Qingdao City South City north is good, but when it comes to buying a house and settling down, the body is very honest?
It's not because of the room rate!
Second, due to the high housing prices in qingdao's main city, the industry in the urban area has also been lost.
Compared with the "only in and out" of the population, what is more frightening is the "only in and out and not in" of the industry.
Hangzhou's housing prices are higher than Qingdao's, and it can also attract 550,000 people to settle down, the key is because There are Internet giants led by Alibaba in Hangzhou who can attract talents with high salaries, thus activating a series of supporting related industries. In contrast, in the main city of Qingdao, in addition to the red tiles, green trees, blue seas and blue skies, and five golden flowers of home appliances that have been said since decades ago, the construction of trees in recent years has been pitiful.
And the more fatal problem is that the existing real industry, because of the high housing prices, is "raising its legs and running away".
You can think that in recent years, countless large companies and large enterprises that have moved from the main city of Qingdao have abounded. Whether it is haier Hisense's production base, or steel mills, Haijing Chemical, Double Star Group, CRRC...
In 2021 alone, there will be Qingdao Ocean Institute to go to Guzhenkou Military-Civilian Integration Zone, Haiti to Go to Blue Silicon Valley, Haiyi Institute to go to the Shanghai Cooperation Demonstration Zone...
In fact, Qingdao's investment promotion in recent years can not be said to be small, but the introduction of large projects, basically all in the west coast, Jiaozhou, Chengyang High-tech Zone and Jimo. Only a few in the main city, such as Goertek Acoustics, are still on Songling Road in Laoshan District.
Songling Road, in the eyes of many old Qingdao people, already belongs to the edge of the city and can no longer be counted as an "urban area".
In other words, in the main city of Qingdao, the "cage" was vacated, but the "bird" did not come in.
You can think about it, at present, in the office buildings on Hong Kong Road, what kind of companies are mainly in the office, in addition to import and export freight forwarders, shipping companies, that is, some law firms, teaching and auxiliary institutions - is this not the case?
Therefore, is your mother forcing you to take the public examination, the examination for the editor, and the examination for the teacher's qualification certificate?
The large number of people rushing to the system is itself a proof of the lack of real economy and employment opportunities.
Take a look at some of the photos from a year ago to see where the job opportunities in Qingdao really are. Show you 3 screenshots of Baidu maps. Note that the time is 5:27 PM.
Many people stubbornly think that Qingdao people "can't afford to buy the main city to buy the suburbs, buy suburban houses to rush to the main city to work", and it turns out that this is not the case. At least a large part of the population "bought a house in the main city and had to rush to work in the suburbs."
This situation is very rare in the country's large cities.
Third, the construction of qingdao metro is of great significance to leveling the "housing price fault" of Qingdao's main city and suburban plates.
Qingdao's main city has high housing prices, the suburbs are sluggish, and the huge housing price gap is largely a commuting gap between the source of the city and the suburbs. As a result, some people had to stay in the main city. This is an objective and undeniable reality.
However, buying a house must be considered forward-looking, and the third phase of the Qingdao Metro project is a "sharp weapon" to solve this commuting problem.
Many people think that if the subway is repaired to the doorstep, the house price will rise. In fact, not necessarily, the subway, just the means of transportation. For a city, the construction of subways and expressways will not bring about a general increase in housing prices, but will play a role in "big shifts", smoothing the peak of housing prices and filling in the valley.
So the problem is, at the end of 2021, Line 1 will be fully opened to traffic. Many communities on the west coast and Chengyang have been pulled into the "one-hour commuting circle" in the south of the city.
At the end of 2022, Line 4 will be fully opened to traffic, and people who buy houses in Blue Silicon Valley will have the opportunity to transfer in Zhangcun and thus go to the city of Beidarong City to work.
Around 2023-2024, the southern section of Line 8 will be opened to traffic, and the owners of some communities in Hongdao and Hetao can "drive directly into May Fourth Square".
Around 2027, people working in Laoshan Financial Center can transfer to Line 15 in Licang to reach Xiazhuang, and before Laoshan worked, Xiazhuang buying a house was probably a very unrealistic move.
In just a few years, due to the construction of the subway, a considerable number of houses in the peripheral area can enter the line of sight of buyers working in the urban area. So what is the impact on the housing prices in the main city that the buyers who have to buy the old and broken houses in the south of the city and the high-priced houses in the new capital after the fushan are released due to the pressure of commuting?
Many Qingdao property market authors predict that in the years after the full opening of Line 1, a "housing price collapse belt along Line 1" will be formed. The main location is between Tuandao and Shengli Bridge on Line 1, of course, there is another one that is Tuandao - Banqiaofang, which is highly overlapped with the No. 5, No. 30 tram and No. 325 bus lines.
The old houses in the collapsed belt will not see any prospects in the future, like the Shanghai Demonstration Zone and the West Railway Station, "falling and falling", and even selling the unit price of the suburbs in the future, falling below the 10,000 yuan mark, just around the corner.
Fourth, the dilution and equalization of educational resources in the main city
This topic cannot be expanded due to space limitations, and interested friends can discuss it.
Having said so many negative factors in the property market in Qingdao's main city, can't buy a house in Qingdao's main city? not necessarily.
From 2018 onwards, qingdao's main city and suburban housing prices have diverged, and there has been a general trend, so who will face high housing prices and lost population, and buy low-quality, high-priced real estate in Qingdao's main city with a hard scalp?
Aren't these people thinking normally? No. And on the contrary, this group of people is quite resolute, because they have a common identity - Qingdao natives.
For this group of people, the circle of children going to school, the elderly seeing a doctor, commuting to work, and partying after work has been fixed, and the first consideration for buying a house is to solve it on the spot, not to move the nest.
The meaning of local solution, to say that the good point is "a bowl of soup distance from parents", saying that the joke is that the old West Town must be able to eat electric barbecue meat stinky tofu, the old four parties to buy a house range is not more than one kilometer of Xinmingming ramen, lao Cangkou after buying a house not only has a pot sticker to eat, but also get a big slide - that can have a happiness index, so no one can recommend them to other places for any reason, unless they go by themselves.
From the perspective of Qingdao's population data, there are more than 3 million stock population in the four districts of the city, and their demand for housing is very large.
Therefore, speaking of this, the local tycoons who can buy sea-view villas in the south of the city and the Qianhai line of Laoshan Mountain, most of the people who buy houses in Qingdao can meet the following two characteristics:
1. Parents, children, brothers, and girlfriends are in the main urban area of Qingdao, the working environment and personal relationship network are in the main urban area, and they know that "house prices are high and wages are low", but it is difficult to leave the main urban area.
2, still holding the sense of superiority in the main urban area, do not know that the outside sister cities, southern cities, suburban new areas have been developed upside down.
Most of these two types of buyers have a characteristic: they do not have no house to live in Qingdao, but they originally have a house and need to buy a house again. The significance of re-purchasing houses for them is to expand the living area and improve the quality of living.
Simply put, they are all improvement buyers.
Therefore, the premise of selling well in Qingdao's main city is that it must meet the needs of improved buyers. As for the dead or alive that is just needed, it does not matter, anyway, most parts of qingdao's main city just need to buy.
Qingdao's main city, what kind of real estate can meet the requirements of the old citizens to improve? There are two.
First, there are properties, parking spaces, parks, apartment types, new houses with good lighting and ventilation.
Second, high-quality school district housing.
So, what kind of real estate, even if it is located in the main city of Qingdao, is also difficult for no one to take over? There are also two types:
First, the old and the small.
Second, the old is broken.
This passage has actually been written once in last year's article, but the situation has not changed, so take it out and say it again: the secret of buying a house in the main city of Qingdao is: buy a new house, a new house, the higher the quality, the better, away from some low-quality communities, away from the old broken community.
The following is still the old rule, with a few words to analyze the property market situation in Qingdao's major sectors in 2022
City South Laoshan Coast: The position of the king continues to be in demand
Qingdao has a saying of "rags with gold edges", and Qianhai in Laoshan Mountain in the south of the city is the "golden edge" of this "rag". As the king of qingdao's image, you don't need to have any worries, it's just a word, money, and you can afford it.
Qingdao property market over the years of real estate sales amount ranking, will not deceive you.
Depth of Songling Road, Laoshan: House prices are bullish in 2022
Standing in the conscience of a property market person, the Zhangcun river area "strongly discouraged", this area is insufficient, the house price is high, belongs to the 100% sale plan, the developer package does not lose money in the area, once the planning has a three long and two short, buyers are easy to "chicken fly eggs fight". In addition, Zhangcunhe itself is a "freak" of the collision of laoshan coastal mansion belt and Zhuzhou Road industrial zone, with poor environmental quality and not much purchase value.
However, from the perspective of investment, the Zhangcun River, as the last and largest urban village in Qingdao's main city, has been included in the plan to tackle tough problems. Large-scale shed reform and old reform are bound to release the demand for housing on a large scale, so the houses around this area may have the potential to rise.
After the floating mountain and the new capital heart, if you go overboard, you will fall, but you will not "fall to the edge"
Just like the SCO Demonstration Zone, which relied on the concept of speculation in 2018 and the crazy rise in house prices, finally could not hold back the end of the waist, in 2019 and 2020, after the floating mountain of the house price was rolled by the speculation of educational resources, how much the house price rose in the end had to be spit out. Think about it and understand that there is no new key school, the original key school ranking has not really improved - but the house price has risen first, which is also a speculative concept.
Since the autumn of 2021, before the legend of "not worrying about selling" after the floating mountain after the emergence of slow sales, to December 2021, the second-hand house transaction price after the floating mountain has appeared "brush brush" decline, although some people still do not admit, or bite the teeth to say that the price reduction is scrap material, but in recent months, the major data platforms show that most of the second-hand house prices after the floating mountain have fallen to within the 30,000 mark, and some even fell below the 2.5 mark.
Think about it and understand, as I said before, the main purpose of buying a house in qingdao's main city is to improve, Qingdao's main city house prices are high, they need to sell the old house first to replace the new house - but the old house can't be sold, and the new house is also a mirror flower and water month!
In 2022, several real estate projects in this area continue to be bearish, and it is currently up to see when the new project developers cannot hold on, and things such as special-priced houses and hardcover changes to rough blanks have appeared.
By the way, although this place has lived a few ex-girlfriends, but I have no hatred for this place after Fushan, the house price has dropped in place, so that you just need, the middle class can get on the car smoothly, and after Fushan is still a good location for education and commuting convenience in Qingdao. Therefore, it is impossible to fall into the sky after the floating mountain, at most it is to squeeze the water, and that's it.
Along Line 1: collapse, the problem of houses falling more and falling less.
A few days ago, someone sent out that the yan'an three-way old broken small 13,000 transactions, fell into the "suburban price" thing, really let some arrogant old Qingdao "shocked", in fact, this kind of thing has long been seen more than strange.
As early as half a year before the opening of Line 1, some people sent tuandao west town old houses, hanging out from 2018, experiencing N price cuts, the unit price of 16,000 still can not be sold, the old Sifang HaiyunAn near the "old broken" residential, now want 15,000 transaction difficulties are very large.
Still that sentence, in the future, with the passage of time, the population continues to age and lose, and there is no bottom line for the decline of old and broken small houses in Qingdao's main city, falling below the 10,000 yuan mark, and it is a matter of time.
As for new real estate such as Jinmao Bay, Xiaogang Famous City, Liyuanli and Lily Garden, it should be relatively valuable, but this is also relative. After all, once the subway is connected, the 32,000 Jinmao Bay is also facing competition from 18,000 Yuehuali, Sunshineli, Shanwan, Fuyuan Mansion, Kanazawa Confucian and other real estate on the other side of the sea.
Although a considerable number of old TuanDao still say that they are very determined to fight and cannot go to the other side of the sea to buy a house, but when it comes to buying a house, buyers face the same area of 2 million differences and only 14 minutes of commuting time, who will know if their bodies are also very honest?
As for Shuiqinggou, several communities around the Shengli Bridge, I will not say anything, Line 1 sit for 15 minutes more, the house price fell by more than 1 million things staged again, and there is no key supporting facilities, high-quality environmental resources blessing, are you sure you can hold up?
Li Cang: Popular area, but it is a little difficult to make the house rise
The first is Dongli, as a hot spot in qingdao's property market, with a good environment and low house density, but the educational resources that many parents value have always been short boards. Commuting is also not convenient. After all, the biggest positive line 2 is also far away.
At present, many new residential areas in this area have broken 3 house prices, although it has always been believed that the house prices in the main environment and low-density areas should be higher than those in the main education, medical and commuting areas, but before the opening of the No. 2 East Extension Line, it is not realistic for the Dongli house prices to fully exceed the Fushan blessed by Line 4. In addition, the environmental selling point of East Lee also faces the competition of the Xixia plate on the west coast coast and after the opening of Line 15. Therefore, the future prospects of this region are there, but do not expect too much.
The second is the Licang North Plate, because of the blessing of Line 1, and the existence of the "house price cliff" between the steel mill and the Victory Bridge, many house prices in Li Cangbei and Chengyang South are less than 20,000 mark real estate that are just needed and just changed by Qingdao. It is also the only area in qingdao's main city property market that can "walk momentum".
But then again, after all, this plate belongs to the fringe of the main city, in addition to the lackluster supporting facilities of Line 1, the "Future City" after the airport transformation and a large area of land are about to be released.
Although for the steel mill plate, I think it is the most favorable area of Qingdao Metro Line 1, but do not expect too much, there is a possibility of a small rise, but it is almost irrational to want to level the Victory Bridge.
Finally, I ended with last year's article: from the data point of view, the houses in qingdao's main city account for only about 10% of Qingdao's property market sales, most of which are improved by local residents in Qingdao, and the foreign population is willing to buy Qingdao's main city, which has been very few.
"Improvement accounts for the majority, just need to reach, investment is not reliable", keep in mind these 15 words, recognize the reality, adhere to rationality, do not let feelings influence their choices.
It should not be difficult for improvers to choose a house in the main city of Qingdao. The key difference is whether the improvement is in place or the gradual rise.
We have witnessed the 30 years of real estate development in Qingdao, personally experienced the great development of the east, the main urban area, the west coast, the city and the sun changing day by day, and the ups and downs of housing prices. Dare to tell the truth, not afraid of resistance, not to follow the tide, not afraid of people's words, smash all kinds of lies, and insist on delving into the truth of Qingdao's property market.
Our slogan is: Qingdao home purchase compass, buy a house this thing must be more real.
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