Three Advantages and One Opportunity to Help the KMT's "Nine-in-One" Chance of Winning is Not Small

Source: Taiwan Straits Network

Taiwan Strait News on 18 January (Wang Wei) After two consecutive defeats, the KMT's "old problem" has been committed again. Not only is the atmosphere within the party extremely depressed, but everyone is busy reviewing and even attacking each other for "catching war criminals," giving people the feeling that the future is bleak.

Zhang Yazhong, president of Sun Wen School, said in a speech at the founding of the reading club in Kaohsiung on January 16 that the KMT's defeats in the elections have highlighted many problems, including: first, the lack of policy discourse that can move the people, second, lack of unity, and third, lack of resources.

It should be said that many people in the Blue Camp, including Professor Zhang Yazhong, have recently been very profound in their self-examination and have also grasped the problems of the Kuomintang. However, the author believes that it is not only difficult but also unrealistic for the Kuomintang, which has been sick like a mountain, and the Kuomintang, which has been accumulating shortcomings for a long time, wants to solve all these problems in a short period of time. Some things, anxious to eat hot tofu, can only come step by step.

At present, the biggest problem of the KMT is not only to find ideas and methods, but also to restore the confidence of its supporters.

Indeed, the defeat in the "Four Referendums," the defeat in the "Legislator" by-election in Taichung, and the defeat in the recall of Lin Changzuo are all major setbacks for the KMT, but is the end coming? I'm afraid I don't have to be so pessim

In 2014, under the influence of the "Sunflower Student Movement", the KMT lost the "nine-in-one" election at the end of the year, holding only 6 seats in all 22 counties and cities in Taiwan, while the DPP won 13 seats in one fell swoop; in the 2016 "general election", the DPP not only seized the "big seat", but also occupied an absolute majority in the "legislature", and for the first time "fully governed". At that time, the situation of the Kuomintang was much worse than it is today.

But in 2018, the DPP's ruling chaos triggered an all-Taiwan wave of "hating the DPP". In the "nine-in-one" election at the end of 2018, the KMT rebounded strongly, with the ruling counties and cities soaring from 6 seats to 15 seats, while the DPP fell from 13 seats to 6 seats.

In the 2020 "general election", the KMT once again fell into a trough, and the DPP maintained "full governance". The recent "four major referendums" and the defeat of the "legislator" by-election and the removal of Lin Changzuo in Taichung can, in a sense, be regarded as the bottom shock of this downward trend in 2020, as long as the KMT can stabilize the basic disk, it does not rule out the emergence of a political "pendulum effect".

There are many problems with the KMT, but the advantages cannot be ignored, let alone be arrogant.

First of all, as a century-old party, the KMT has a perfect organizational system and strong grass-roots strength, which can be described as "deep roots". Even the DPP cannot match this.

Secondly, there are many talents in the Kuomintang, and as long as there are suitable opportunities and stages, they can shine. In 2018, Han Hanyu set off a "Korean Wave"; in 2022, whether Hou Youyi will set off another wave is worth looking forward to.

Moreover, in the handling of cross-strait relations, the KMT has its own tremendous advantages, and this is the real foundation of the KMT's founding.

In addition to the above three points, the CHAOS of the DPP's administration is also creating opportunities for the KMT to make a comeback. Since Tsai Ing-wen was re-elected, the scenery on the surface is unlimited, but in fact there are many crises, introducing "Lai pigs", underworld storms, scandals in the Internet army, epidemic prevention loopholes, vaccine storms, and deterioration of cross-strait relations... Once these problems resonate, the DPP will certainly be countered by the stronger public opinion. Therefore, as long as the KMT strengthens unity, reorganizes its morale, readjusts its strategy and tactics, and straightens out contradictions within the party, the "nine-in-one" election at the end of the year will not only lead to a war, but also have a good chance of winning.