Dong Lihua: The overall consumer market continues to recover, and the consumption structure is optimized and upgraded

Source: China Economic Network

In 2021, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, all regions and departments will conscientiously implement the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, scientifically coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development, continue to expand the scale of market sales, optimize and upgrade the consumption structure, and maintain an overall recovery trend in the consumer market.

First, the scale of the consumer market has steadily expanded, and market sales have continued to recover

The market size continues to expand. In 2021, the total retail sales of consumer goods totaled 44.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.5% over the previous year and an increase of 8% over 2019. Excluding price factors, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 10.7% in real terms. In terms of quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter and the fourth quarter exceeded 11 trillion yuan. Among them, in the fourth quarter, driven by factors such as the National Day holiday and the "Double Eleven" e-commerce promotion, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in the quarter reached 12.3 trillion yuan.

The consumer market continues to recover. In the first quarter, due to the low base of the same period last year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 33.9% year-on-year, with an average growth rate of 4.2% in two years; as the epidemic prevention and control situation continued to improve, the consumer demand of residents was steadily released, and after excluding the impact of the base, market sales in the second quarter accelerated growth. The average growth rate in the two years was 0.4 percentage points faster than in the first quarter; affected by the epidemic and extreme weather in some areas, the average growth rate in the three quarters and the two years fell; the consumer market continued to recover in the fourth quarter, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by an average of 4% in two years, 1 percentage point faster than the third quarter.

Total retail sales and growth rate of consumer goods in each quarter of 2021

Second, the urban market continues to recover, and the rural market recovers better than that of the towns

The urban market continues to recover. In 2021, the retail sales of urban consumer goods increased by 12.5% over the previous year, and the average growth rate in two years was 3.9%. In terms of quarters, the urban market in the fourth quarter increased by 3.3% over the same period last year, an average growth rate of 3.9% in two years, and the average growth rate was 1 percentage point faster than that in the third quarter.

The recovery momentum of the rural consumer market is relatively strong. The mainland's comprehensive victory in poverty alleviation has led to the improvement of rural residents' consumption capacity and the improvement of the consumption environment in rural areas, and the per capita disposable income of rural residents in 2021 will increase by 9.7% over the previous year, and the growth rate will be 2.6 percentage points higher than that of urban residents. Since the second quarter, the sales growth rate of the rural market has continued to be higher than that of cities and towns. Among them, the retail sales of rural consumer goods in the fourth quarter increased by 4.4% year-on-year, an average growth of 5% in two years, both 1.1 percentage points higher than that of cities and towns.

Third, the retail sales of goods have grown steadily, and the consumption of catering has continued to recover

The retail sales of goods have a good growth trend. In 2021, retail sales of goods increased by 11.8% over the previous year, an increase of 9.2% over 2019, and an average growth of 4.5% in two years. Among them, the retail sales of goods in the fourth quarter increased by an average of 4.7% in two years, 1.2 percentage points faster than the third quarter. Nearly 80% of the commodity categories above designated size have a year-on-year growth rate of more than 10%; from the average growth rate of the two years, the retail sales of all categories of goods have maintained growth.

The recovery of food and beverage consumption in the fourth quarter has accelerated. Contact consumption such as catering has been more obviously affected by the epidemic. In 2021, catering revenue increased by 18.6% over the previous year, down 1.1% from 2019, and down an average of 0.5% in two years, and the scale of catering consumption has not yet recovered to pre-epidemic levels. In terms of quarters, the catering revenue in the fourth quarter fell by an average of 0.5% in two years, and the decline was 1.1 percentage points narrower than that in the third quarter, and the recovery of catering consumption accelerated.

Fourth, online consumption has maintained rapid growth, and offline retail operations have improved

Online consumption is growing rapidly. Affected by the epidemic, residents have reduced their travel, and the demand for online consumption at home has increased significantly. In 2021, the national online retail sales increased by 14.1% over the previous year, of which the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 12%, an average growth rate of 13.4% in two years, and the growth rate was significantly higher than that of offline consumption. Judging from the development of the postal express industry, which is closely related to online shopping, driven by the rapid growth of online consumption, the volume of express delivery business and business revenue in 2021 will maintain double-digit rapid growth compared with 2020.

Physical retail stores are doing well. In 2021, among the retail sales of stores above designated size, the retail sales of convenience stores, supermarkets, specialty stores and specialty stores increased by 16.9%, 14.1%, 12.8% and 12% respectively over the previous year, with an average growth of 7.5%, 11.2%, 3.3% and 5.1% respectively in the two years.

Fifth, the retail growth of basic living goods is relatively good, and the demand for upgraded consumers continues to be released

Sales of grain, oil, food and daily necessities grew rapidly. In the face of adverse factors such as the spread of the epidemic and extreme weather, all regions and departments have actively implemented policies and measures such as "ensuring basic people's livelihood", and basic living consumption has grown rapidly. In 2021, the retail sales of grain, oil, food and daily necessities above designated size increased by 10.8% and 14.4% respectively over the previous year, and the average growth rate of 10.4% and 10.9% in the two years increased by an average of 10.4% and 10.9% respectively. Among the online retail sales of physical goods, the retail sales of eating and using goods grew rapidly, increasing by 17.8% and 12.5% respectively.

The demand for upgraded consumers continues to be released. In 2021, the retail sales of cultural and office supplies, sports and entertainment supplies, cosmetics, gold, silver and jewelry and communication equipment of units above designated size increased by 18.8%, 22%, 14%, 29.8% and 14.6% respectively over the previous year, with an average growth rate of 12.1%, 15%, 11.7%, 11.2% and 13.7% respectively in the past year, and the growth rate was significantly higher than the average retail sales of goods.

In 2021, the overall market sales will continue to recover, and the optimization and upgrading of the consumption structure will be obvious. In 2022, as the normalization of epidemic prevention and control becomes more accurate and effective, the income level and employment status of residents continue to improve, the policy of promoting consumption is gradually implemented, the consumption upgrading trend is expected to continue, and the scale of the consumer market will continue to expand.

(Author: Dong Lihua, Director General, Department of Trade and Foreign Economic Statistics, National Bureau of Statistics)