The next six months of epidemic research and judgment! Zhang Wenhong: This may be the last "cold winter"

National Health Commission: Added on January 15

There are 65 locally confirmed cases

From 0 to 24:00 on January 15, 2022, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 119 new confirmed cases. Among them, there were 54 imported cases (24 cases in Shanghai, 14 cases in Guangdong, 6 cases in Sichuan, 3 cases in Yunnan, 2 cases in Liaoning, 2 cases in Guangxi, 1 case in Beijing, 1 case in Tianjin, and 1 case in Fujian), including 6 cases of conversion from asymptomatic infected persons to confirmed cases (2 cases in Liaoning, 2 cases in Sichuan, 1 case in Guangdong, and 1 case in Yunnan); 65 cases in local cases (33 cases in Tianjin, including 32 cases in Jinnan District and 1 case in Xiqing District; 29 cases in Henan, including 15 cases in Anyang City, 7 cases in Xuchang City, 7 cases in Zhengzhou City, and 1 case in Beijing, in Haidian District 1 case in Guangdong, zhuhai city, 1 case in Shaanxi city, in Xi'an city), including 6 cases converted from asymptomatic infected people to confirmed cases (all in Tianjin). There were no new deaths. There were 9 new suspected cases, all of which were imported from abroad (all in Shanghai).

On the same day, 109 new cured and discharged cases were cured, 2390 close contacts were released from medical observation, and the number of severe cases increased by 2 cases compared with the previous day.

There are 1264 confirmed cases (no severe cases) imported from overseas, and 14 suspected cases. The cumulative number of confirmed cases is 12,064, the cumulative number of cured and discharged cases is 10,800, and there are no deaths.

As of 24:00 on January 15, according to reports from 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, there are 3,461 confirmed cases (including 13 severe cases), 96,767 cured and discharged cases, 4,636 cumulative deaths, 104864 confirmed cases and 14 suspected cases. A total of 1478462 close contacts have been traced, and 53,299 close contacts are still under medical observation.

31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 52 new cases of asymptomatic infection, including 47 cases imported from abroad and 5 cases from the mainland (3 cases in Shanghai, including 2 cases in Putuo District and 1 case in Baoshan District; 1 case in Zhejiang, in Hangzhou City; 1 case in Guangdong, in Zhongshan City); 12 cases were converted to confirmed cases on the same day (6 cases imported from abroad); 30 cases were released from medical observation on the same day (29 cases imported from abroad); and 753 cases of asymptomatic infected people who were still under medical observation (701 cases imported from abroad).

A total of 30,705 confirmed cases were reported from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. Among them, there were 12,857 cases in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (12,366 cases discharged from hospital, 213 deaths), 79 cases in Macao Special Administrative Region (77 cases discharged from hospital), and 17,769 cases in Taiwan Region (13,742 cases discharged from hospital, 851 deaths).

How toxic is Omikejong? Do you want a fourth shot? Zhang Wenhong interpretation

On January 15, 2022, Zhang Wenhong, director of the National Center for Infectious Disease Medicine and director of the Department of Infectious Diseases of Huashan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University, was interviewed by CCTV News "Theory of Relativity" to answer questions about Shanghai's "minimum medium-risk area" and the Aomi Kerong strain.

Zhang Wenhong: The division of "minimum medium-risk areas" has two prerequisites

The communication chain is clearly visible and big data tracking is in place

On January 13, Shanghai reported 2 locally confirmed cases and 3 local asymptomatic infected people, all of which were associated with an imported asymptomatic infected person from abroad reported by the city on the 11th.

Among the above 5 infected people, 3 are the service staff of a milk tea shop at No. 228 Yuyuan Road, Jing'an District. The milk tea shop is listed as a medium-risk area and is also called "the minimum medium-risk area" by netizens.

Zhang Wenhong told reporter Zhuang Shengchun that there are two main reasons for such "accurate division": one is that the current round of epidemic in Shanghai is in a very early stage and the transmission chain is clearly visible; the other is that big data tracking is in place, and most people in the surrounding neighborhoods have not entered this milk tea shop. If widespread community transmission is already occurring, the division of risk zones will need to be adjusted accordingly. "Shanghai's precise prevention and control, as long as it involves risk areas, must be in place, and at the same time, it must not be blindly expanded."

Zhang Wenhong: The toxicity of Omike rong cannot be ignored

The import risk in the next six months should still be very high

Recently, the domestic epidemic situation has been sporadic at many points, and according to the published circulation situation, some of them have come from relatively independent overseas imports. Zhang Wenhong said, "In the next six months, the import risk should still be very high. ”

In Zhang Wenhong's view, the severe illness of Omi Kerong is declining, but the toxicity cannot be ignored. His team made a wide-ranging comparison of the Ami keron and Delta viruses, the former causing no less fever than the latter. "Judging from the latest calculated case fatality rate in the United States, if nothing is really done, it will have very serious consequences." Speaking about China's experience in fighting the epidemic, Zhang Wenhong said with confidence: "If we are fast enough and the epidemic prevention runs ahead of the virus, we can win every victory of dynamic zero clearance." ”

Zhang Wenhong: The COVID-19 vaccine has been effective in reducing severe illness and mortality

The global spread of COVID-19 has once again sparked public discussion about the role of vaccines. Zhang Wenhong told reporters that studies on mutants have shown that the new crown vaccine has a significant effect on reducing severe illness and mortality, especially the third dose of vaccine can increase antibody levels by dozens of times. As for the fourth stitch, he thinks it is too early to say, "There is no need to be so anxious now, and we can have more international experience for us to use." ”

"This could be the last 'winter'"

Zhang Wenhong said that in principle, after the next year, whether it is the level of herd immunity, or the immune barrier established through vaccines, or the listing of new crown treatment drugs, it means that "this may be the last 'cold winter'".

"We believe in China, we believe in the world, there are so many people working together, we survive this cold winter, next year's Spring Festival will no longer be so cold."

Source: National Health Commission, CCTV News WeChat public account

Intern Editor: Peiwen Bai

Supervisor: Mu Haoqiang

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