Raider @ Tiger (5:30 Beijing time on Sunday)
Daniel Carlson kicked not only lightning out of the door, but also kicked the raiders' ticket destination from Kansas City to Ohio, and the odds of passing away from home skyrocketed.
Although the Raiders are mediocre and don't have many strong points, they are experiencing four consecutive wins, and they also directly send "playoff-level" opponents such as Ponies and Lightning home, and they themselves cannot infer their strength with common sense. In the tenth week of the regular season, they lost to the Tigers by 19 points, in fact, the first three quarters have come and gone, that is, the fourth quarter collapsed, and the result of another battle is difficult to say.
Moreover, the most obvious shortcomings of the Tigers: attacking the front line, releasing a pressure rate of 30%, the third highest in the league, why the Tigers attack the regular season ups and downs, poor protection is the biggest reason; the strong point of the raiders: the rushing pass group led by Crosby and Ngaku, only uses a 10.7% raid rate (the lowest in the league) to complete a 35.4% pressure rate (the sixth in the league), and four-man pressure + cover3 is the magic weapon of their regular season defense. In the 11th week showdown, the Raiders used only 3 raids to create 11 pressures, and this disparity in the duel may put Joe Burrow under pressure, play out of order, and affect the direction of the game.
Of course, the Tigers have the PFF score of the first quarterback Boro, the breakthrough of the devil runback Mixon, the supernova receiving group led by Chase and Higgins, and the second half of the EPA-0.025 league 13th defensive group, and the most terrifying "indissoluble throw Chase" this trick of the universal solution, the paper strength is much stronger than the raiders.
But the playoffs are different, the Raiders defense data seems to be very poor, but if it were not for Herbert's gods, in fact, lightning could not hit the Raiders defense. The Raiders offense is really not a long pass threat, but offensive coordinator Greg Olsen seems to have touched the key to victory and can always make the right passing choice in key slots. If there is a possibility of a cold spot in the three playoff games in the American League, then I think it is only possible in this game.
Win-loss prediction: The Raiders win within one touchdown
Patriot @ Bill (Sunday 9:15)
The regular season seems to be equally divided between away and away games, but as long as anyone who has seen the game knows:
In week 13, the Patriots ran to the death of Bill with three passes in the whole game, and the key to that battle was when the Patriots used 18 gears to stare at people, when JC Jackson defended Steven Diggers only had 4 passes and 2 of 32 yards, Josh Allen was obsessed with pocket passes, Bill attacked and stopped, and Allen could only get more and more anxious. At that time, the league's first defense run Bill was stunned to prevent the Patriots from rushing the ball, the security guard was not good at lifting the box, and Allen could only stare off the field.
Twenty days later to fox fort, Brian Dabor is not stupid, as long as the Patriots stare at people again let Aaron run out of the pocket to rush to kill, coupled with Aaron's super sense of superiority, the 7 waves of attacks that the whole field seriously advanced had 6 waves of points, when the Patriots fell behind, had to give up the rush to force the class to pass, the Patriots had difficulty catching up with Bill in the pure soaring score battle.
Of course, after a long period of preparation, it would be difficult for Allen to replicate the miracle of Week 16 against Belicek, but it was absolutely unlikely that The 13th Week would be unmoved.
On the contrary, the Patriots attacked, perhaps the "three-pass victory" exhausted the character, from that game, the Patriots' offensive EPA 0.126 so far ranked 14th, in large part thanks to the wild Jaguars brush data. The Patriots receiver's ability to get rid of the defense deteriorated as the season progressed, holding the ball longer and longer in the class, and then had to pass dangerous balls in those small spaces. The second is that patriots do not have vertical weapons, and they do not rely on long passes to eat full lessons, and it is very difficult to encounter headwinds.
Beal's defensive EPA is still the league's number one, but due to the injury of star cornerback White, it has slipped from -0.171 (first) in the first half of the season to -0.041 (12th) in the second half of the season. However, Sean McDermott's Beal is a team based on defense, and the ability to defend long passes is also significantly ahead of the whole league, and it should not be a big problem to pinch the full class in the wild card battle.
This battle is difficult to judge the direction, even if it is consumed into a defensive battle, Allen's passing attribute will always find an opportunity to tear apart the Patriot defense line, but if the routine attack cannot be opened, it is difficult for the Patriots to shake Bill with the offense.
Win-loss prediction: Beal has a small win over one touchdown advantage
Eagle @ Pirate (Monday 2:00)
In the sixth week of the match between the two teams, the Eagles' initial rush rate was only 26.7%, and finally in the fourth quarter, they remembered to play the rush, relying on Hertz's two punches to save face, and also made the Hawks coach Nick Cyriani fully awakened: we will focus on the rush in the future.
The Turning Point in the Hawks' season was almost the battle with the Pirates: the Hawks had a 40.3 percent kick rate in the first seven weeks of the season, the eighth-lowest in the league; then soared to 57.3 percent, a positive fifth. The large increase in the number of punches not only improves the offensive success rate, but also the large number of reading options and RPO also allows Jaylen Hertz to fully play his personal technical characteristics.
On the other hand, the Pirates, AB and Godwin, who received 137 yards and 1 touchdowns for the Pirates in the sixth week, will be absent from this battle, and the unknown Cyril Grayson who has just played is also injured in the final week of the regular season, so the Hawks have a chance to take advantage of your illness to kill you?
First of all, the Eagles rush the ball, but in 2019 and 2020, the Pirates are the first defensive passes in the league, and this season is also the tenth in the league, such a defensive team that will be carved into the gene has a tough defensive front line to fight against the Hawks' strong offensive front, as well as enough rich lineback resources to monitor Hertz, and it is not easy for the Eagles to easily buckle the road.
The significance of the wild card battle is to eliminate those mixed teams, and the Hawks, who are 9-8 and quarterbacks who can't pass the ball in their pockets, are of course the biggest bastards in the National League. We have to face up to the huge gap between the two teams, now the Pirates offensive weapons are quite attrition, but the Hawks are not a team based on anti-pass, their anti-pass EPA and PFF anti-pass scores are in the middle of the league, in addition to Darius Slay, there is no particularly good anti-pass resources, plus the rush pressure rate regresses to the middle of the league, facing the league's first pass protection Sixth week Eagles 42th gear rush only creates 9 pressure, and relies heavily on the attributes of double high area defense, It is possible to greatly limit the vertical bombardment of pirates, but in the face of the forty-year-old man who has played exceptionally stable this season, the regional defense problem of the Eagle is not big, and the old man's sense of revenge is exuberant, and he will not repeat the mistakes of four years ago.
Win-loss prediction: The Pirates win within one touchdown
49 People @ Cowboys (Monday 5:40)
In the 1980s and 1990s, the League of Nations battle was staged again, and if it were not for the broadcasters giving it to CBS, it would have been very exciting if Troy Ekman had the opportunity to explain this battle.
First of all, my point is that this is the only one of the six wild card battles that has not been rehearsed in regular events, and it is also the most suspenseful battle in the entire wild card round.
The Cowboys have scored 50 points in two of their last three games, and their last seven games have exceeded 20 points, and their offense is extremely solid. The battle between the 49ers and the Rams is a battle of metamorphosis, the offensive defense is tough against the opponents at the playoff level, the big score is not panicked, compared with the National League hegemon two years ago, the offense is almost the same, the defense is just a long pass of the defense is a bit regressive.
Cowboys this season anti-run EPA-0.048 league 20th, anti-run PFF score 47.5 league 22nd, so they may not be able to force 49 people into the third gear long yardage by choking the road, the cowboy's top punch + make mistakes ability may not be able to exert, 49 people's changeable offensive routines can always create large sizes. Nick Bossa and Omennihu have the league's top pass winning percentage, but facing the First Offensive Front of the Cowboy League may not be so easy, and the defensive backcourt has to use Ambury Thomas and Emmanuel Mosley to pick the beams, such a configuration is difficult to match with the Cowboys' young catcher group, considering that Cedric Wilson exploded after Gallup's injury, the Cowboy catcher group is more difficult to defend. In summary, this game may form a mutual explosion.
However, the strength of the 49ers lies in the offensive routine, in Dibo Samuel as an X factor to create a large-size offense, but once the offense falls into three long yards, the 49ers' weakness of lack of pure single-handed targets will be exposed, George Kittel is strong but can not always point to him to catch the ball, the playoffs rely on routines, rely on the advantages of catching the ball after the promotion can not be relied on. In week 18, Gallopolo's calmness in the face of three long yards can be described as a millennium wait. In addition, the 49ers right interceptor McGrench reported that the offensive front as a whole was "left strong and right weak", and the Cowboys would let DeMarcus Lawrence and Parsons focus on attacking the 49ers right interceptor Tom Compton, and it would be difficult to resist the double ghost and shoot from the same side.
Compared with the 49ers, the Cowboys have fewer obvious flaws, can also achieve "no rush Prescott cooking", in a clean pocket can be stable output, offensive coordinator Karen Moore in the offensive configuration, passing options, route design are quite thoughtful, the 49ers are basically impossible to defend the Cowboys, plus some advantages brought by the home field, I am more optimistic that the Cowboys can win.
Win-loss prediction: The Cowboys have a touchdown advantage over small wins
Steelman @ Chief (Mon 9:15)
Twenty days ago the Chiefs went berserk at the 26-point advantage on the Arrowhead Court, in which the Chiefs offense, with Kelsey absent and Cheetah Hill only playing 40 percent of the gears, faced the Steelers' regressive defense and exploded for 36 points, attacking EPA0.362 before entering garbage time.
We have a lot of respect for Big Ben, but we have to admit that he is the Steelers' biggest weakness today, and it is difficult to connect the attack with a steady pass. As for the chieftain's anti-run rot? The Steelers did push 130 yards with a 25-stop rush in the regular season showdown, but so what? The Steelers' first seven waves of offense were kept clean and didn't get a touchdown until garbage time. This is the smallest suspense of the six wins in the wild card round.
Win-loss prediction: The Chiefs win with two touchdowns or more
Cardinal @ Ram (Tuesday 9:15)
The two teams meet in the regular season to take the away game equally, the key is that when Murray's PFF score in both games is around 80.0, the Cardinals' pass attack EPA 0.429 in the fourth week and the EPA-0.044 in the 14th week, what is the key?
In the fourth week, 39 passings played 20 fake run real passes + screen short passes, and in the 14th week, 58 passes only played 22 slots of such routine attacks. In the fourth week, a large number of routine attacks allowed Murray's pass depth of 6.7 yards and a true shooting rate of 82.8%; in the 14th week, it was a large number of direct retreat passes, resulting in a pass depth of 10.7 yards and a true shooting rate of 70.2%, and Murray's pressure rate also soared from 28.2% in the fourth week to 50% in the 14th week. I mean, Murray's ups and downs after the injury, whether Kingsbury arranges enough routine attacks to help his beloved Murray share the pressure, will be the key to the game.
In the fourth week, the Rams used Ramsay and David Lang to deal with Ho Dad, the effect was average; in the 14th week, the adjustment was made immediately, with Darius Williams strangling Ho Dad to death, the two of them only had 8 passes to Ho Dad in the middle of 8 passes and 40 yards, Williams also brushed three destructive passes, and the Cardinals were very uncomfortable after the dragon was strangled. I mean, without The Wild Card Battle, which destroyed the city and slammed down four rushing touch-ups in the first two duels, the Cardinals' offensive weapon can only be AJ Green, and he is afraid that he will be doomed.
In the defensive group part, the opening season seven consecutive wins over the Cardinals defense EPA-0.183 league second, but the second half of the season four wins and six losses stage defensive EPA 0.092 only the tenth to the bottom, JJ-Watt's first 37% raid rate can create a 32% pressure rate, but watt's 40% raid rate after the game can only create a 29% pressure rate, and the last five games are the most five long-term transmissions in the league.
On the other hand, the Rams, the road attack EPA-0.111 league before the 13th week, but the last month of the road attack EPA 0.014 league ninth, Sony Michelle is mighty, the new big coffee von Miller and XiaoBei also have continuous contributions, in my opinion, Tang teacher does not need too much superstar level defense, as long as Matthew Staffor can control the mistakes and win the game.
Win-loss prediction: The Rams have a small win with a touch-up advantage