Image source @ Visual China
Text | Kaiboluocaijing, author | Jiaoying Wu, Editor | Golden Dragon
The new consumption in 2021 is like riding a roller coaster, rushing to the highest point after a sharp turn, falling sharply.
In the first half of the year, online beauty, drinks, tide play, offline tea, noodle shops, baking, were invested by capital over and over again. In the second half of the year, the investment project list of well-known VC institutions was almost all occupied by meta-universes and hard technologies, and a very small number of people who could still take money were the head players who were desperately fighting. "We don't pay much attention to new consumption anymore, except for food technology." One investor said bluntly.
When the tide rises, hot money pours in like crazy; when the tide recedes, the track bubble bursts. From hot to cold, in 2022, is there still a chance for new consumption?
Through exchanges with a number of investors and analysts, Kai Pineapple Finance summarized the new consumer investment trends in the past six months, combined with multiple industry forecast reports, and summarized the eight new consumption tracks that are expected to usher in new opportunities in 2022.
Among them, some track stock markets are huge, and new consumer enterprises still have the opportunity to complete brand replacement and upgrading through micro-innovation, such as healthy snacks, alcohol-free soft drinks, and functional skin care.
Some tracks are already quite hot and fiercely competitive, but the market is not fully covered, and there is still room for improvement in penetration, such as offline chain coffee and sugar-free food.
There are also some emerging categories that are in the early stages of development and have not yet run out of the head player, and there are still new stories to tell, such as plant-based, outdoor sports, and vertical beauty.
The opportunities in these tracks are either that products meet the needs of new consumer groups, or that the brand market is undergoing structural changes, or that supply chain technology upgrades may bring about disruptive changes. Whether it is a new brand that wants to rise up in the wind, or an old brand that wants to fight back, or an old brand that wants to take off in the track full of opportunities, the first step is undoubtedly to get out of the old dream of Internet celebrities who have new consumption in the past.
The first category: new stories in emerging categories
Plant-based
In the 2022 global food consumption trend forecast released by a number of cutting-edge data agencies and well-known consumer enterprises, plant-based has a place.
Since 2021, a number of brands have been financed on the two major tracks of plant meat and plant milk. Even in the second half of 2021, when new consumption is cold, the enthusiasm of the capital market for plant-based is still undiminished.
On January 11, 2022, Zhou Zero completed a $100 million Series B financing, and the old shareholder Jingwei Venture Capital also invested in another plant meat brand "Plant Professor" in the second half of 2021. New consumer head player Xicha, just entered the VC in the second half of 2021, and invested in a plant milk brand "Wild Plant YePlant".
"Week Zero" plant meat dish
The substitution of plant-based meat for animal meat is linked to the global rise of environmentalism, vegetarianism and animal welfare. Chinese food industry analyst Zhu Danpeng once analyzed to the opening of pineapple finance, relying on consumption upgrades and the just needs of the healthy population, in China, plant meat will be one of the rapid development of the industry in the next two to three years.
However, due to the current technical system and supply chain is not yet mature, the industry will also experience a long cycle of technology iteration. A number of investors told Kai Pineapple Finance that when the plant meat process is more mature, reaches the scale of industrialization, reduces costs, and reaches the hands of consumers in the form of terminal products, it will usher in the favor of the market.
In contrast, the Chinese market for plant-based milk is rapidly opening. Its "predecessor" plant protein drinks soy milk, coconut milk, walnut milk was once popular, which is a category that has been verified by market demand, and the latest applications such as enzymatic dissolution technology have also created better taste and nutrition for plant milk.
"Plant milk is closer to consumers, in addition to the popular oat milk in 2021, coconut milk, badan wood milk, etc. are also entering the market." In the view of Chen Momo, a senior consumer investor, no additives and compounding (a variety of plant collocations) will become a new trend in plant milk innovation.
Outdoor sports
"Outdoor sports should be recognized as a track that can tell new stories." One investor said that because the track is still in its early stages and there is no vertical head brand, there is a great opportunity for new players.
In 2021, camping took the lead in detonating the outdoor economy. "Little Red Book 2022 Top Ten Life Trends" shows that in 2021, the number of releases of Little Red Book camping, pulp boards, frisbees, etc. increased by 5-6 times year-on-year, and the search volume of "ski tutorials" increased by 100% year-on-year.
The rise of the outdoor economy will first trigger the revolution of fashion clothing.
"For example, some life-like, confrontational outdoor sports, the requirements for clothing and equipment are very different from traditional sports, may not need to be so professional, but need to be more fashionable and better-looking." Chen Silently analyzed that the new sports scene will inevitably bring new product demand, and the brand must grasp the core pain points of the target consumer population.
In addition, the market prospects of outdoor sports-related equipment are also optimistic. According to the "Alibaba 2021 "Eleventh" Holiday Consumption Travel Trend Report", the sales of Tmall camping products in September increased by more than 50% year-on-year, and the number of Fliggy tents and camping bookings rose by more than 1400% month-on-month.
It is worth noting that consumer investment institutions with a keen sense of smell have entered the market in advance. According to the enterprise investigation, in November 2021, Challenger Capital, helmed by Yuanqi Forest boss Tang Binsen, invested in the trend sports brand "Flipped Lab Buoyancy Lab". According to reports, it takes the Z generation and women who chase the trend and express their personality as the main consumer group, facing the pan-sports scene, advocating more diversified scenes and a more casual and free wearing experience.
Draped makeup
Perfect Diary's market value has plummeted, Huaxizi's growth has been weak, and after two years of madness, the beauty track seems to have entered a bottleneck period.
However, in 2021, the more segmented beauty drape market has emerged a number of phenomenon-level brands, such as Blank me for base makeup and Into you for lip makeup. The attention of the capital market has also turned to emerging beauty categories such as beauty pupils and eyelashes.
The closest to the air outlet is Mi hitomi. The U.S. pupil brands Moody, Coddy, and Colala have successively won multiple rounds of investment from VC and CVC institutions such as Matrix Partners China, Hillhouse Capital, Sequoia Capital, Country Garden Venture Capital, Fengrui Capital, Tencent Investment, etc., and Moody completed the C round of financing of 1 billion yuan in One fell swoop in November 2021.
In the second half of 2021, there will be very little financing for the beauty track, but two brands that focus on eyelash products have been favored by capital. In October, the new eye makeup brand "WOSADO Yue Hitomi" received hundreds of millions of yuan of investment from Sequoia China, Hillhouse Venture Capital and other investments, and its main product is zero glue light false eyelashes. In December, the beauty brand "MLEN DIARY Milan Diary", which focuses on flashing eyelashes, received a series A financing led by Fengrui Capital.
Yue Hitomi offline stores
It is worth noting that these two brands are expanding offline stores, Yue Hitomi has opened more than 20 stores across the country, Milan Diary is also developing new nail art tools, and the intention of intercepting the traffic of traditional nail art eyelashes is self-evident.
Kai Pineapple Finance learned that the recent popular wear of nails (different from traditional nail art, which can be worn and removed at any time) is also one of the most favored projects for consumer investors at the beginning of the new year.
Although enough subdivided categories are easy to hit the ceiling of scale, in the eyes of some entrepreneurs, these vertical segmentation tracks cater to the needs of a new generation of consumers who are personalized enough, and the professional players who are the first to enter the game are most likely to become the dark horses of the second half of beauty.
The second category: micro-innovation in the stock market
Functional snacks
Health and wellness is the just need of the current young consumer group, and it is also one of the major trends of global food consumption in 2022. Today, there is a consensus on food consumption: whoever can do it healthy and delicious will win over consumers.
Dolphin Society co-founder Na Mingyuan believes that most of the traditional food and beverage tracks have been occupied by foreign brands, and there are not many local enterprises that can make good products and seize the minds of consumers, and creating new user minds through the concept of health is an opportunity for new consumption.
The health of snack products and the snacking of functional products are considered to be a major breakthrough in food consumption.
The CBNData report shows that the health care products purchased by consumers from the Tmall International platform show a trend of "snacking" without a sense of medicine. Among them, the post-90s/95 population prefers new forms of health care products such as comprehensive nutrition meal packs and functional snacks.
"Healthy" fudges sold on e-commerce platforms
"The new health food must be scientifically based and anti-'IQ tax'." Chen Momo pointed out that when new consumption is the hottest, there are many so-called health foods, which are actually just the concept of rubbing natural or health. Today's consumers are less so easy to deceive, they are more and more involved in the selection of products, and put forward higher requirements for the product itself.
In her view, functional foods that serve the needs of women's health, intestinal health, sleep health, mental health, etc., and whose efficacy can be significantly feedback and have been verified, will be favored by consumers if they can be more snacked and scenario-based.
Song Liang, a senior dairy analyst, pointed out that functional and healthy is also an inevitable trend in the development of dairy products. On the one hand, there is still market space for cheese and low-temperature milk combined with personalized and functional needs; on the other hand, with the improvement of basic nutrition professional research and development technology, special medical food will become the biggest bright spot in the market. (Special medical food, that is, formula food for special medical purposes.) ）
"Before the special medical products were mainly aimed at infants and young children, in 2021, Danone, Nestlé, etc. began to launch adult special medical foods, and in the future, domestic enterprises will follow up after the breakthrough in technology research and development." He believes that new products are likely to take the lead in large dairy companies with research and development foundations, and new brands have the opportunity to enter the market by cooperating with pharmaceutical manufacturers with professional nutrition research backgrounds.
Energy drinks
In 2021, low-alcohol liquor is favored by young people and has become a new entrepreneurial outlet. But by the end of the year, low-alcohol hadn't taken off against the wind as expected, and more capital had shifted to alcohol-free soft drinks.
According to Ai Media Consulting data, the compound growth rate of China's soft drink market from 2014 to 2019 is 5.9%, and the market size will exceed one trillion yuan in 2020, and it is expected to reach 1,323 billion yuan in 2024. Among them, packaged drinking water, functional drinks, and coffee have grown rapidly.
Some investors revealed that the new opportunities for soft drink brands lie in the brand substitution upgrade of functional beverages such as energy drinks and herbal tea products, as well as the combination of various beverage forms, such as "coffee + tea" and "bubble + coffee / tea / juice".
Among them, energy drinks are considered to be one of the tracks with the largest growth space in the food and beverage field in 2022.
Genki Forest launched the "alien" energy drink
This can also be seen from the investment layout of some new consumer head players. In 2020, Yuanqi Forest launched the energy drink brand "Alien", which focuses on the combination of functionality and sparkling water; in November 2021, Yuanqi Forest launched a second functional beverage brand "Big Devil", strengthening the label of low-sugar functional beverages and seizing the market intention.
Many analysts pointed out that the biggest pain point of energy drinks at present is that the brand is too old. "The traditional Red Bull, Lehu and Dongpeng special drinks belong to the 'drinks of the previous generation' in the eyes of young people." Na Mingyuan pointed out that the current demand for energy drinks by young consumers is not reduced, and it is not affected by traditional brand marketing, and new players have every opportunity to seize the opportunity of brand replacement and rebuild energy drink brands.
Functional skincare
In 2021, the functional skincare track performed eye-catching. With the growth of the skin care ingredient party, a number of domestic brands such as Kwadi, Runbaiyan, Winona, and Polaria have risen rapidly. On the other hand, companies such as Shierjia and Kefumei have successfully gone out of the circle by relying on the SKU of medical beauty masks, seizing the "mechanical brand" market and even knocking on the door of the IPO.
Bloomage Bio's "Kwadi" functional skin care products
However, starting from the second half of 2021, the regulatory policies related to the cosmetics industry have been intensively adjusted.
On the one hand is the tightening of regulation. For example, at the end of 2021, the State Food and Drug Administration issued a document to stop "adding 377 ingredients with whitening effects to ordinary cosmetics; requiring the deletion of commonly used product names such as "medical cold compresses and cold compress gels"; and officially implementing the "Cosmetic Efficacy Claim Evaluation Specification".
On the other side is the regularization of new raw materials. For example, since the promulgation of the Regulations on the Administration of Registration and Filing Data of New Raw Materials for Cosmetics, six new raw materials for cosmetics, such as N-acetyl neurine (bird's nest acid), lauroyl alanine (supramolecular amino acid), and snow lotus culture, have been filed, which will bring new opportunities for cosmetics research and development.
Some investors told Kai Pineapple Finance that with the strengthening of cosmetics regulatory policies, the brand pattern of the functional skin care track will undergo great changes. New and old players are bound to turn back from heavy brand marketing and meet the challenges of product development and innovation. 2022 is even known in the industry as the "first year of cosmetic efficacy".
"In the past, a large part of the so-called functional skin care was supported by micro-business. After strict management, there will be regular new products and new brands to replace this part of the market. An investor said that functional skin care and medical-grade skin care are also in line with the trend of scientific and healthy life.
The third category: the re-expansion of popular tracks
Sugar-free food
Many analysts believe that under the trend of healthy consumption, food and beverage will follow the path created by Yuanqi Forest and carry out "sugar-free" to the end.
According to the Zhiyan Consulting Report, the market size of sugar-free beverages increased from 1.66 billion yuan in 2014 to 11.78 billion yuan in 2020; cbNData report shows that nearly 70% of new tea consumers choose to reduce sugar, and the top ingredient is 0 calorie sugar.
In 2021, the penetration rate of sugar-free beverages is unprecedented. In addition to the continuous launch of "0 sugar" tea drinks, coconut water, new brands such as Heytea and Lemon Republic after the sparkling water, as well as traditional brands such as Nongfu Shanquan and Wang Laoji, it is also promoting additive-free sucrose juice and herbal tea.
Yuanqi Forest sugar-free sparkling water
But in the field of food, there is still a lot of room for imagination of "sugar-free". Chen Momo believes that sugar-free will be more widely used in foods other than beverages. "The most typical categories such as baking, ice cream, chocolate, these categories originally have a very high sugar content, but they are not staple foods linked to eating habits, and there is a good chance to correct them."
In her view, along the "sugar-free" healthy trend, more new brands will start from the source to deeply control ingredients, formulas, control unhealthy ingredient intake, which is one of the biggest selling points of baked goods in the future, but this also requires brands to accelerate the research and development problems.
Offline coffee
Offline, the track that is recognized to continue to grow in 2022 and is hotly grabbed by capital is coffee.
In 2021, capital frantically flocked to offline coffee, investors are not lacking in both head VCs and Internet CVC institutions, and in the second half of the year, new consumer players have also joined the battle. ByteDance and Meituan Dragon Ball have successively added Manner, Tencent has laid out Tims and algebraists; Yuanqi Forest has bet on Never Coffee and M Stand, and Xicha has smashed into Seesaw.
Manner Coffee Shop
"The consumer education scenes and the cultivation of usage habits of coffee are all offline, and now that online traffic is too expensive, online coffee brands are also turning to offline stores." Chen Momo believes that the competition of coffee must be a competition for consumers' full-scenario solutions in the future.
Gao Jianfeng, founding partner of Shanghai Bogai Consulting, analyzed that offline coffee has a market size of 100 billion, but most of the chain coffee stores are laid out in first-tier cities, and in some second-tier cities and third- and fourth-tier cities, the proportion of coffee consumption is not high, and the penetration rate of standardized coffee can be improved.
In Chen Momo's view, the opportunity for new brands is to become the honey snow ice city in the coffee industry and seize the sinking market. "For example, to create a convenience store type of small coffee store, the price is comparable to a high-end coffee capsule, the outlets are enough, and it is also very competitive."