As we all know, when the domestic pig price is falling excessively, the official pork storage comes into being, at the same time, it also adjusts the value of the domestic pig-to-food ratio, and raises the original "6:1" as the pig floating loss line to "7:1", according to the average price of domestic corn at this stage of 1.28 yuan / catty, the pig price must reach 9 yuan / catty, and the pig can barely protect the capital! However, for self-breeding and self-raising, due to the low cost of piglets, the cost line of fattening at this stage also hovers around 8 yuan / jin, so the pig price of "8 characters" has also become the bottom line of the farmer's psychological endurance!
Entering the New Year's Day holiday, the average domestic pig price sideways "8 character head", limited by the consumption support deviation, pig prices rose from the end of November last year to 9 yuan / jin after the showed a gloomy market, of course, last December pig prices fell by the group pig enterprises before the New Year's Day out of the bar, and into January, with the impact of the New Year's Day, the spring festival holiday, the peak season of pork consumption will also come, the New Year's Day holiday has also become the "warm-up" of the Spring Festival market, but, in reality, the market pork consumption is unusually bleak!
Consumption is not smooth, after the New Year's Day holiday, the market pressure pigs and early production capacity escape phenomenon intensified, pig supply further relaxed, under the impact of small standard pigs, the price of big pigs also went down, the north and south market pig prices fell back, and now, in just 9 days after the New Year's Day holiday, pig prices fell by more than 2 yuan / kg, the average price of pigs bottomed out 13.99 yuan / kg, the market fell below 7 yuan / kg, according to the pig ratio, pig losses showed an intensified performance!
Affected by the outstanding performance of the loss of farmers, in the northern region, the farmers are willing to sell the price of the sentiment to become stronger, in the northeast region, the pig price has risen across the board, and the market in the north and south has become stronger! Slaughtering enterprises procurement difficulty changes, continue to adjust the settlement price of pigs, January 13, pig prices "change face", the market stopped falling, the national standard pig out of the barn price, the average price remained at 13.99 yuan / kg, the market and yesterday's flat!
From the perspective of the performance of the north and south markets, on January 13, pig prices showed a market of 8 up, 7 down and 13 flat, domestic pig prices fluctuated sideways, the scope of decline gradually decreased, and the areas that stabilized and strengthened also increased!
Among them, in the northern market, the average price of standard pigs is 12.3 ~ 14.3 yuan / kg, the price of Hebei pigs is 14.3 yuan, the Beijing-Tianjin market rises to 14.2 yuan / kg, the Xinjiang market stabilizes by 12.3 yuan / kg, the northeast market slaughter enterprise quotation stabilizes by 13.6 ~ 13.8 yuan, and Heilongjiang falls by 0.1 yuan!
In the southern market, slaughter enterprises quote the average price of standard pigs 12.4 ~ 16.6 yuan / kg! Hainan pig prices stabilized at 16.6 yuan, Yunnan market bottomed out 12.4 yuan, in the traditional high-priced areas, Sichuan-Chongqing market maintained at 13.4 ~ 13.7 yuan; Jiangsu and Zhejiang, slaughter enterprises quoted 14.7 ~ 15.4 yuan / kg, two Guangzhou market 14.4 ~ 14.7 yuan / kg!
Overall, on January 13, pig prices showed a sideways shock trend, this round of pig prices fell to a halt, the market rise in the scope of significant increase! The good that supports the rebound of pig prices is not that the market pork consumption has ushered in the peak season, on the contrary, the domestic mainstream consumption presents, Beijing and Shanghai, the wholesale market white strip pig leftover phenomenon is still more, the domestic slaughter loss pressure is still obvious, some market slaughter enterprises to increase the price of pigs, limited by the northeast market before the rebound, farmers are reluctant to sell the mood to increase, the market pig supply is reduced, aggravating the difficulty of slaughter enterprise procurement, pig prices have a narrow rise in changes!
So, with the current round of pig prices stopping 9 consecutive declines, after the stage pig price fell by 12.78%, will the market build a bottom and rise sharply?
Personally, I think that on the one hand, the price difference between the high and low areas of the market is insufficient, and the price difference between the northeast (13.6 ~ 13.8) and north China (13.75 ~ 14.3) is only 0.15 ~ 0.5 yuan / kg; compared with the two Guangzhou (14.4 ~ 14.7), the price difference is only 0.8 ~ 0.9 yuan / kg! The regional pig price difference is insufficient, the market transportation is more difficult, the local pig source consumption is the mainstay, and the local consumption in the northeast market is poor, and the slaughtering external adjustment white strip is limited, which will also limit the performance of pig prices to continue to strengthen!
On the other hand, the supply pressure of live pigs is strong, and the consumption constraints are obvious! Although, in the short term, supported by the price of the breeding end, slaughtering enterprises are facing certain difficulties in procurement, but now that the waxing moon has entered the middle of the month, there is not much time from the end of the year, and large-scale pig enterprises and general farmers still have a backlog of stockpiles, and in the short term, the excess capacity in the market will still be concentrated, and the supply of pigs in the market is still under pressure. On the consumption side, after the curing of bacon, the consumption benefit is only "killing pigs", however, the performance of consumption in the north is poor, and the sporadic cases in many places also have obvious restrictions on catering, ordinary consumption support is insufficient, frozen pork continues to enter the market, and the trend of pork consumption constraints will continue!
Therefore, based on the above analysis, the pig price stop falling is only "point to the end", and with the intensification of panic among farmers, under the constraint of consumption, the pig price will fall again after a short sideways, but with the approaching of the Spring Festival, the rural relatives and friends have visited more, pork consumption also has a slow recovery performance, it is expected that the future market pig prices are mainly weak in shock, and pig prices do not have room for a sharp rise and fall!
Pig prices "change face", 13 days to stop falling, what happened, pig prices to build the bottom up? What do you think about this? The above is for reference only, the content is original, unauthorized, reprinted!