Rising inflation is adding fuel to global macro liquidity changes

"Turning Stones into Gold" is a collection of weekly financial information and business information by the Research Center for Finance and Taxation Big Data and Policy of Zhejiang University, inviting experts to make in-depth comments to present you with attitude and valuable news.

　　Hot topics this week

　　Three sectors: By 2025, the new energy industry will become an important channel for farmers to increase income

　　Three squirrels have broken out low-level errors and can control risks is a mature posture

　　Many places include the courier brother in the work injury protection

　　Germany's inflation rate for the full year 2021 reached 3.1%, the highest level since 1993

　　Foreign media: The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates earlier than expected, and the NASDAQ plunges more than 3%

　　According to Zhongxin Jingwei, recently, the National Energy Administration, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the National Rural Revitalization Bureau issued a notice on the Implementation Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Rural Energy Transformation and Development to Help Rural Revitalization. The "Opinions" require that by 2025, a number of green and low-carbon pilots of rural energy will be built, the proportion of wind power, solar energy, biomass energy, geothermal energy, etc. in rural energy will continue to increase, distributed renewable energy will develop and grow, and the new energy industry will become an important supplement to the rural economy and an important channel for farmers to increase income。 The "Opinions" also mentioned that it is necessary to guide charging business operators and new energy automobile enterprises to build charging and replacement power stations in large villages and towns, relocation and centralized resettlement areas, tourist scenic spots, public parking lots and other areas, give priority to promoting the use of electric vehicles for official vehicles, buses and taxis in the county, and promote the application of new energy vehicles in tourist scenic spots and characteristic towns. Explore the establishment of an intelligent vehicle networking platform with vehicle pile station linkage, information sharing, and intelligent dispatch, and promote new energy vehicles to become an important part of rural microgrids.

　　Comments: The content of this news is very economically predictable. First, it has pointed out a brand-new path of economic development for solving the problems of "three rural areas" in rural areas, agriculture, and peasants. The rural microgrid, composed of renewable energy sources such as wind power, solar energy, biomass energy, and geothermal energy, indicates that China's rural areas and farmers will become a living force for achieving sustainable human development. Second, promoting new energy vehicles to become an important part of rural microgrids indicates that important changes will occur in the industrial structure, and agriculture, industry and service industries will be closely integrated in rural areas. The status of rural industry will rise considerably, and the service industry will develop accordingly. Third, the development of distributed renewable energy indicates that the distributed peasant living mode characterized by decentralized residence will be further improved, and it is necessary to treat the urbanization construction characterized by centralized housing with new ideas to avoid being troubled by traditional thinking. Fourth, distributed technology will do a lot. "Turning Stones into Gold" addresses this issue many times: "The Industrial Revolution developed centralized technology. The steam engine is the center of all machinery and equipment, and production revolves around the steam engine. In the era of electrification, power plants were centralized, but machines and equipment were distributed. Now, distributed technology is also used for power generation. The shift from centralized to distributed technology application is a revolutionary progress in human production and a major trend in the future development of technology. ”

　　According to the Yangcheng Evening News, recently, some netizens pointed out that in the "331 Brain Patch" advertising chart previously released by three squirrels, the picture of two teenagers wearing red scarves was not compliant, and the relevant information of the Young Pioneers could not be used for advertising. On January 3, three squirrels sent an apology letter on Weibo and said that in response to the above problems, the company has carried out self-examination and self-correction in many aspects. At the end of December 2021, because of the squinting eyes and thick lip image of the sour chili powder product advertising model, some netizens believe that the advertisement is yin and yang weird and deliberately ugly. Subsequently, the three squirrels officially said that in response to netizens' feedback that the model's makeup did not meet the public aesthetics and caused discomfort, the three squirrels apologized and had replaced the page to prevent similar situations.

　　Comments: This news says that if it is really because of advertising that the performance has declined, and it has repeatedly committed public anger, then it is to spend money to hit your own feet. However, if this phenomenon is attributed to the understanding and ability to grasp social psychology, it is an understatement of this problem. The low-level mistake of the three squirrels is that the corporate culture is wrong. Generally speaking, corporate culture refers to the sum of the common consciousness, values, professional ethics, codes of conduct and norms formed through social practice under certain social and economic conditions and followed by all members of the enterprise, and is a unique cultural management model with value as the core formed by the enterprise in the process of its own development. Some enterprises lack a correct understanding of the fundamental problems of social and economic development, which also makes the corporate culture biased. The lesson of the three squirrels angering netizens shows that companies must pay attention to the cultivation of their own culture. Risk management depends on cultural literacy, and enterprises without culture have no future.

　　According to Workers Daily, recently, Fujian, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Anhui and other provinces have introduced policies to include the express delivery employees of grass-roots express delivery outlets in the protection of work injury insurance in accordance with the "Opinions on Ensuring the Legitimate Rights and Interests of Courier Groups" jointly issued by multiple departments of the state, clarifying that the coverage of work injury insurance is "all employees used by grass-roots express delivery outlets", and stipulating that express delivery companies shall not use seasonality, temporariness, flexibility, liquidity as the reason, or on the grounds of " Have participated in work injury insurance in other courier enterprises" as a reason, refused to apply for the work injury insurance for the courier personnel recruited. The full inclusion of couriers in the scope of work injury insurance and the protection of work injury insurance that give them more powerful and warm work injury insurance is a care for their rights and interests, and also conforms to the requirements and trends of improving the labor security system and supporting the healthy development of new business formats.

　　Comments: Labor security refers to the sum of all measures and actions taken to protect the basic rights and interests of workers. In addition to the right to income, the personal safety of workers is the object that must be guaranteed in the process of labor. From an economic point of view, in order to protect the legitimate rights and interests of workers, enterprises must pay labor security expenses that are consistent with labor costs, and cannot deduct various rights and interests that should have been obtained by workers on the grounds of cost savings. In order to restrain the behavior of enterprises, the labor security system must be strictly implemented. Workers are the main body of wealth creation, and respecting and protecting workers is the main content of corporate culture. Corporate values depend on attitudes towards workers. As mentioned in the previous news, enterprises should form a unique cultural management model with value as the core in the process of their own development. Enterprises that ignore or even trample on the interests of workers have no future.

　　According to the CCTV news client, on the 6th local time, the German Federal Statistical Office said that Germany's inflation rate rose to 3.1% in 2021, reaching the highest level since 1993. The report of the German Federal Statistical Office pointed out that the sharp rise in energy prices, supply bottlenecks and the elimination of VAT preferential policies were the main reasons for the increase in inflation rate in Germany. Meanwhile, Germany's monthly inflation rate has also reached its highest level in 30 years, with a monthly inflation rate of 5.3% in December 2021, only 0.5 percentage points away from the record of 5.8% in June 1992.

　　Comments: German inflation can't stand up this time. Inflation is an economic phenomenon caused by monetary policy, and inflation after the COVID-19 pandemic has one more factor – supply chain bottlenecks. Worse, Inflation in Germany added another reason – the abolition of the value-added tax policy, which increased the production costs of enterprises and led to higher prices. There are reports that the intensification of the overseas inflation situation is constantly promoting the acceleration of the shift in monetary policy, and the global macro liquidity is changing. Judging from the characteristics of inflation in Germany, it is necessary not only to shift monetary policy, but also to adjust fiscal and tax policies. More notably, rising inflation has hit German savings hard, and low-interest-rate ways of saving have lost their appeal. This adds fuel to the change in global macro liquidity. Germany's high savings rate keeps its balance of payments in surplus. As a result, German funds have become an important force to supplement the BALANCE OF PAYMENTS deficit in the United States. A decline in Germany's savings rate will further tighten global liquidity, so the impact of changes in German macroeconomic policy on the world economy cannot be ignored.

　　According to The China News Economics and Latitude, on January 5, local time, the US stock market fell sharply, and the Nasdaq index fell by more than 3%. Previous minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (Fed/FED) meeting showed that the Fed may raise interest rates earlier than expected. Fed policymakers said at last month's meeting that a very tight job market and high inflation could require the Fed to raise interest rates earlier than expected and begin reducing its overall asset holdings as a second brake pad for the economy. Some investment experts believe that the Fed is very worried about signs of inflation, which may form the view that the Fed will actively tighten in 2022. The minutes of the meeting were more hawkish than expected.

　　Comments: Due to the international status of the US dollar, the direction of the Fed's monetary policy has always been an extremely important economic issue of concern to all countries in the world. Whether and when the Fed will raise interest rates has naturally become a topic of media coverage and public concern. The U.S. stock market suffered a heavy setback, reflecting the capital market's response to the Fed's interest rate hikes. Monetary policy has been tightened, the liquidity of capital markets has been weakened, and the supply of funds has decreased. As a result, as the news suggests, rising interest rates will increase borrowing costs for businesses and consumers and depress price-to-earnings multiples for stocks, especially for tech stocks and other growth stocks. The recent rise in US Treasury yields has put pressure on growth stocks. This suggests that U.S. Treasuries are more attractive to money, while stocks are a different story. International capital is the leading force in the global capital market. In the face of the contraction of monetary policy in some major economies of the world, they are bound to adjust their investment strategies. China should also pay special attention to the movement of big international capital.

　　Hot words of the week

　　Corporate culture is the spiritual wealth and material form with the characteristics of the enterprise created in the production, operation and management activities of the enterprise under certain conditions. It includes corporate vision, cultural concept, value concept, enterprise spirit, ethics, code of conduct, historical tradition, enterprise system, cultural environment, enterprise products, etc. Among them, values are the core of corporate culture.

　　(Written by Hou Ruoshi) (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

　　"Turning Stones into Gold", No. 564. The views of the guests in this column do not represent the views of Sino-Singapore Jingwei. Zhongxin Jingwei copyright, without written authorization, any unit and individual shall not reprint, excerpt or otherwise use.