The impact of La Niña continues, and soybean production estimates in South America are revised downwards

Affected by La Niña, extreme weather will continue in South America, with some areas in southern Brazil going to be dry for more than 60 days, while some areas in northern Brazil will last more than 60 days without sunlight. Southern Brazil did have some rain last week and over the weekend, and the weather forecast said there would be sporadic showers later this week. Rainfall was not enough to ease the moisture pressure on soybeans in southern Brazil.

We know that drought-affected soybeans in southern Brazil will suffer yield losses. What is less clear is what the effect of persistent cloudy days, lack of sunlight and heavy rains on soybean yields will be. As I mentioned in last week's report, a rough guess is that 35-40% of soybeans are in dry areas and 50-60% of soybeans are in wet areas.

Mato Grosso State — Last week, some of Mato Grosso's early-grown soybean fields began harvesting, with most of the harvest concentrated in the northwestern cities of Sapezar, Campo Novo do Parecis and Brasnorte. That's about 20 days ahead of last year. In mid-January, the state harvested less than 1 percent of soybeans. In the better areas of northwest mato grosso, early yields are expected to be 58 to 65 bags per hectare (52 to 58 bp/acre), and some may even be as high as 75 sacks per ha (67 b/mu).

In the cities of Solisso, Nova Mutum and Lucas verde in central Mato Grosso, there are reports of moldy beans growing and sprouting in pods. Given the rainfall in the region, delays in harvesting are expected. If the pods are close to moist soil, they increase the chance of bean kernel rot and poor quality. It is also more difficult to use the required fungicides.

The Mato Grosso Institute for Agricultural Economics (Imea) expects the state's soybean production to reach a record 38.14 million tonnes, up 5.8 percent from last year. For now, depending on the severity of the reduction in arid regions of southern Brazil, the proportion may even be higher.

Paraná - The situation in western Paraná has deteriorated over the past week. There were only a few light rains and sporadic showers, and the temperatures were higher. Soybeans in the western Paraná River are in a critical period of pod filling, with numerous reports of dwarf soybeans, pod failure and early plant wilting. In the worst case scenario, some farmland yields less than 10 pu/acre. In the worst areas of the western Paraná River, some farmers even cut down soybeans for feed because their yield potential is essentially zero.

The Department of the Rural Economy (Deral) has not issued crop ratings since Christmas. Their next report, which will be released earlier this week, is expected to show a further deterioration of the soybean crop, with perhaps less than 50 percent of the crop in good condition.

Rio Grande do Sul - In Rio Grande do Sul, soil moisture is severely inadequate, and some farmers have not yet completed soybean planting due to a lack of soil moisture. As of late last week, 93 percent of soybeans had been planted, 90 percent were in the vegetative growth phase, and 10 percent had begun to flower, the report said.

A good thing about the state (if it can be said to be a good thing) is that most soybeans have not yet entered the critical pod filling phase.

The weather in Goiás-Goiás is also humid, but not as humid as in the more northern regions. Conditions in Goiás continue to be good, and soybean yields should at least be trend lines, if not better.

Mato Grosso do Sul - The situation in Mato Grosso do Sul is volatile. The weather in the northern half of the state has been good, while the southern half is dry, but may not be as dry as the neighboring state of Paraná.

Bahia — As I mentioned earlier, farmers in the state worry that the lack of sunlight in the state over the past month and a half could reduce their soybean yields. They are concerned about increased pressure on insects and diseases, but they are unable to implement the necessary control measures. At this point, it's hard to quantify the losses (if any), but dry weather is sure to be welcome. The situation is similar in the states of Maranhow, Park and Tocantins.

This week, Brazilian soybean production is expected to fall by 2 million tonnes to 138 million tonnes in 2021/22.

Brazilian soybean growth stage: 28% emergence, flowering 20.1%, pod 43.5%, ripening 7.3%, harvest 0.5%.

Argentine soybeans

Central Argentina has had several rains over the weekend and several sporadic showers in the weather forecast this week. Higher than normal temperatures and below normal rainfall will put pressure on crops in the northern and eastern planting areas. High temperatures and drought conditions have slowed soybean cultivation, especially in northern Argentina.

So far, I've been hesitant to drastically cut the valuation of Argentine soybeans because the crop is still under cultivation and in the nutrient growing phase. I decided to cut production sharply this week because 30% of the first-season soybeans are in bloom, and the forecast for the first half of January is worrying. In the weather forecast for the first half of January, there is very little rainfall and dry weather will be accompanied by very high temperatures.

You also have to think about whether all of the expected double-cropping soybeans will be planted, especially if they stay dry as predicted. Farmers in Argentina can still grow soybeans until the end of January, but that would exceed the limit.

As of late last week, Argentina's soybean planting rate in 2021/22 was 81.4 percent, compared to 87.5 percent last year, with an average of 88.4 percent. That means it's up 8.2 percent this week. In the core production areas, soybeans are 95-100% grown, 60-90% grown in southern Argentina and 25-40% planted in northern Argentina. Drought conditions are slowing the planting of double-cropping soybeans, with a doubling rate of 71.5 percent as of late last week.

Soybeans are rated 8% poor/pole, 36% average, and 56% good/excellent. The excellent rate was down 15 percentage points from the previous week. The soil moisture in maize is 31% short/extremely short and 69% favorable/optimal. The favorable/best percentage decreased by 11 percentage points from the previous week.

This week, estimates of Argentine soybean production for 2021/22 fell by 3 million tonnes to 45 million tonnes.

This article is derived from oil meal noodles