Since the New Year, oil and gas prices in Kazakhstan have soared. In Mangerstao, for example, LNG prices doubled from 60 tenge per liter to 120 tenge on top of doubling in 2021, which caused public dissatisfaction.
After all, the price increase of oil and gas is the first to affect the logistics industry. Under the influence of the epidemic, the inflation rate in Kazakhstan has increased by 8%, and the rise in freight rates has led to an increase in prices, and some Kazakh people have taken to the streets to protest.
Tokayev
However, with the development of events, the protests are no longer purely economic demands, but mixed with political demands, and the popular protests that have broken out in many places have also begun to appear violent, and the figures of demagogues and extremists have also appeared frequently.
In this context, Kazakh President Tokayev announced on the 5th that he would accept the resignation of the government and appoint a new acting prime minister, while launching the cabinet reorganization process.
Unfortunately, President Tokaev's "fast knife" did not "cut off the chaos" at the first time, and the protesters rushed into the Almaty municipal government on the evening of the 5th in the case of impacting the municipal governments in many places.
This is definitely not good news, because the city of Almaty is the largest city in Kazakhstan, the country's capital between 1929 and 1997, and is currently a financial and educational center, hosting diplomatic receptions on many occasions. It is no exaggeration to say that the city of Almaty is not the capital, but it is more like a capital.
Almaty MunicipalIty "Lost"
But now, the Almaty city government has been rushed in by protesters, and there are even gunshots at the scene, indicating that the evidence in Kazakhstan has been so bad that even the capital, Nur-Sultan, is not safe.
As a result, President Tokayev has signed a decree that the capital, Nur-Sultan, is in a state of emergency and that control measures will continue until January 19, while a curfew is enforced at night.
All in all, Kazakhstan is experiencing a serious "political storm". Behind the storm, it is necessary to remind 3 key points.
First, is there interference from outside forces? The answer is obvious. Merely because of the rise in oil and gas prices, which have sparked protest marches that have gradually spread across Kazakhstan, is in itself difficult to achieve without organization.
In this regard, President Tokayev and Almaty Mayor Sarkintayev also said that internal and external forces are stirring up the situation with ulterior motives.
Biden
This is not difficult to understand. As a member of the former Soviet Union and located in Central Asia, a transportation hub through Eurasia, Kazakhstan's geopolitical value is self-evident.
What's more, after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the strategic value of the Central Asian region has become more and more significant, and the US military has been seeking to station troops in The Central Asian region, such as hinting at the construction of military ports along the Caspian Sea in Kazakhstan, but has been repeatedly rejected by the Kazakh side.
In addition, Kazakhstan, like Ukraine, not only has deep ties with Russia, but also has a geographical proximity to Russia, and if it is successfully evolved by Western countries, Russia will be attacked on its backs and left and right.
It should be noted that Ukraine after the "color revolution" is a lesson for the past. Combined with the recent poor relations between Russia and Europe and the United States, coupled with the sword-rattling on the Ukrainian border, the West is likely to see Kazakhstan as a "breakthrough".
Second, the protests that swept across Kazakhstan, which began because of "oil and gas prices", have now completely "changed their flavor".
It should be known that the governments at all levels in Kazakhstan have made very sincere concessions, and the presidential office has also specially convened an economic conference to not only admit the mistake and reorganize the cabinet, but also put forward a series of specific measures, including temporary supervision of oil and gas prices, and the opening of the investigation of the price manipulation by the procuratorial agency.
In addition, food, electricity prices, rent, public health and children's issues are all involved, which shows that the Kazakh government is preparing to give a "shot in the arm" to the sluggish economic situation under the epidemic.
But the effect did not seem obvious, the "protest" crowds stormed government institutions in many places, and even the sound of gunfire began to appear, and the protest was moving in the direction of riots.
Don't forget, Kazakhstan's per capita GDP is around $10,000, a figure that has doubled 12 times in the 30 years since independence, and the economic situation will not deteriorate to the point where it needs to overthrow the government in a riot.
Nazarbayev
Third, note that a slogan appeared during the protests: "Grandfather, go away." Among them, the grandfather refers to the first president of Kazakhstan, Nazarbayev, who is equivalent to Lukashenko of Belarus.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Nazarbayev has quickly stabilized the domestic situation in Kazakhstan and chosen a national path suitable for the development of Kazakhstan, so that Kazakhstan will have political stability and economic growth for a long time, and will not fall to the level of Ruthenia, Ukraine and other CIS countries.
But as many have commented, many of Kazakhstan's contradictions could be suppressed while this brilliant politician was in office, but since he resigned from all political positions in April 2021, Kazakhstan's opposition forces have been stirring.
But Nazarbayev is still alive after all, and President Tokayev is also the "heir" he chose, and the ability and strength to deal with this large-scale protest in the country are still there, so the situation will not be eroded.
Putin
But if Belarusian President Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin also leave office, will Belarus and Russia experience similar disasters?