During the New Year's Day, the corn market ushered in a rare red rise, and rose for several days in a row, which made many farmers very excited. After all, the price of corn continued to be depressed in December, and farmers could only choose to sell at a high price. But I didn't think about it, it was not easy for corn to go higher, but now the market has fallen again, which has caused many farmers a headache.
In addition to the decline in corn, wheat and soybean markets are not too good, and the overall market is sluggish. But what people did not expect is that urea, which fell successively in December, ushered in a wave of price rise after New Year's Day. The cost of planting land has increased again, which has caused the old farmers a headache!
01, corn fell again?
New Year's Day corn ushered in a red rising, which made the originally despondent grain farmers suddenly like "fighting chicken blood", began to speed up the sale of corn, but did not think that in the past few days, corn prices fell again.
From the market point of view, Shandong is the main decline area, generally fell 0.3-2.5 points, such as Tianli Pharmaceutical fell 1.3 points, the quotation was 1.352 yuan / jin; Linqing golden corn fell 2.5 points, the quotation was 1.314 yuan / jin; Shouguang Chenming fell 2.3 points, the quotation was 1.352 yuan / jin; Shouguang golden corn fell 1.7 points, the quotation was 1.348 yuan / jin; Pingyuan Fuyang fell 1.5 points, the quotation was 1.375 yuan / jin.
Shandong's market fell, mainly because the number of people selling grain increased, after all, the number of people returning home on New Year's Day increased, and many people took the opportunity to sell corn, and as a result, enterprises seized the opportunity to reduce prices. A few days ago, the arrival of corn dropped to more than 100 vehicles, but today the arrival volume rose to 1196 cars, 719 more than the previous day.
It was farmers who frantically sold corn, and prices are now rebounding to fall. In the final analysis, enterprises and traders still hold a price-suppressing sentiment on today's corn, and in view of last year's loss-making experience, traders have not dared to purchase corn at a high price.
In the northeast and Inner Mongolia, corn also ushered in a steady decline, a decline of 0.5 points, such as Bashan starch fell 0.5 points, the quotation was 1.305 yuan / jin; COFCO Elm fell 0.5 points, the quotation was 1.21 yuan / jin; Suihua Xiangyu 30 water fell 0.5 points, the quotation was 0.93 yuan / jin.
The decline in the northeast market is, in the final analysis, because of the increase in the number of people selling grain, and the reason why shandong has seen a large increase in vehicles is also because some corn in the northeast has flowed into Shandong.
At present, it is difficult for corn to go higher years ago, mainly because there are too many people who are reluctant to sell in the early stage, and there will be a wave of people actively selling grain.
02, wheat downturn
Wheat, like corn, has fallen since December, but even if the market declines, the decline is not too large, so it fell for 1 month, and the average price of wheat fell from 1.44 yuan to 1.43 yuan / catty.
Judging from today's wheat prices, the overall market is stable, and Huarui Noodles fell by 0.5 points, with a quotation of 1.43 yuan / catty. In this way, it is difficult for wheat prices to have a large fluctuation in the short term.
You know, today's official release of 500,000 tons of wheat, still did not let the wheat price have much decline, it can be seen that the wheat market supply is tight, especially high-quality wheat, so there is no possibility of a big fall in wheat, it is expected to remain between 1.4-1.43 yuan years ago.
03, soybeans fell
During the New Year's Day period, all the cofco warehouses directly under the northeast all lowered the purchase price, such as bei'an, Harbin, Bayan, and Acheng directly subordinate warehouses fell by 1 point, and the purchase price was 3.12 yuan / jin; the Dunhua directly subordinate library fell by 1 point, the quotation was 3.15 yuan / jin; the Suileng directly subordinate library fell by 4.5 points, the quotation was 3.075 yuan / jin.
It can be seen that the soybean market is not too good, but the purchase price of northeast soybeans exceeds 3 yuan, which has set a record high, so even if the price of beans falls, it is still at a historical high.
Of course, the price of beans fell, but also because the market purchase price is still at a high level, the enthusiasm for selling grain at the grass-roots level has increased, and enterprises have begun to reduce prices. So, will the price of beans continue to fall next?
In fact, it is not the case, as the year approaches, soybean companies increase the scale of production, soybean consumption increases, so it can also support the stability of soybean prices. Coupled with the reduction in soybean imports in 2021, the port inventory is about 7.7528 million tons, compared with 8.1627 million tons in the same period last year, so soybean prices can also be stabilized.
04. Why is urea rising?
The price of urea in 2021 has been high, and the international general rise is more than 200%, and there has been a "urea shortage" in Japan, South Korea, Australia, India, etc., which once affected the logistics and transportation chain.
The price of urea is higher, mainly due to the rise in raw material prices, coal, natural gas, the two major raw materials rose sharply last year, resulting in a significant increase in the cost of urea production. Internationally, the urea quotation has risen to about 6000 yuan / ton, and China's highest time has also risen to about 3500 yuan.
However, under the repeated blows and regulation of China's officials, urea began to fall in November, and generally fell to 2300-2400 yuan / ton in December, which was about 1000 yuan / ton lower than the previous highest price.
I thought that urea would continue to fall in 2022, and it should be known that the price of urea in previous years was 1700-1800 yuan / ton. But did not think, after the New Year's Day, urea began to rise, such as Shandong rose 50-60 yuan, the mainstream price of 2520-2530 yuan / ton; Henan rose 40 yuan, the mainstream of 2480-2520 yuan / ton; Jiangsu rose 60 yuan, the mainstream of 2550-2570 yuan / ton.
It can be seen that urea in many places has risen to 2500 yuan / ton, up about 100-150 yuan / ton from the previous period. As for why it is higher, on the one hand, some enterprises have begun to stop work and overhaul, resulting in a tight supply of urea, while some farmers in the northern winter wheat area have begun to purchase urea and wait for the timely fertilizer of wheat during the Spring Festival.
Coupled with the fact that some traders began to "bottom out", the market urea supply was tight, driving the market higher.
For farmers, last year, due to the increase in the cost of urea, the cost of planting land also rose by 70-100 yuan / mu, and many farmers complained. Now the three major staple grains and soybeans are sluggish, but urea is rising again, which makes old farmers headaches. However, it is believed that with the end of this wave of fertilizer buying boom, urea will fall again.