Old Xing next door
On the first trading day of the new year, Tesla stock news was hotly searched in the financial circle and achieved a super opening. On January 3, it rose more than 13.5% in a single day to close at $1199.78, just one step away from the all-time high of 1229.91. According to the "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" reported on January 4, the reason for the surge in Tesla's stock price on the same day was mainly because the number of complete vehicles delivered in the fourth quarter far exceeded the expectations of almost all mainstream research institutions, reaching 308,600 units.
In 2021, Tesla has completed more than 930,000 vehicle deliveries, an increase of a staggering 87% year-on-year. It seems that an era of cars belonging to Tesla is coming. As of January 3, Tesla's total market capitalization was $1.2 trillion, more than double the combined market capitalization of the four auto giants of General Motors, Ford, Toyota, and Honda! What impact will all this have on our people? Lao Xing does not make any investment recommendations, but interprets the development expectations of Tesla Motors with this article, and displays the real income data, looking forward to bringing you a dry reading experience. Tesla's "ok" and "no"
Before showing tesla concept stocks and Tesla theme fund income data, let's first analyze the "concept axis" that these stocks and funds jointly surround - Tesla. First, let's talk about why Tesla "works". First of all, Elon Musk is the biggest variable for Tesla to continue to soar. Time Magazine once described Musk's focus on Tesla, "In 2018, Tesla suffered a production capacity crisis, and for most of the entire month of April, he lived on the factory floor, personally inspected the monitor, personally rewrote the code for the machine tool, and personally checked one process at a time until the quality of the assembly line and the delay problem were solved." ”
Looking back at the life summary of this "technology number one player", it is clear that the world's richest man's distinctive "hard technology" innovation and entrepreneurship ability will bring opportunities for Tesla's development. 1) The children of the rich were born in South Africa, the father was an electrical engineer and adventurer, the mother was a model, and at an early age he lived a very rich material life with his father's career success. But childhood experiences are not all happiness, young Musk also suffered from his parents' divorce, traveling from place to place, and tasted the pain of being bullied by school bullies, learned to be independent very early, and wrote a "rich child early home" children's story. The young Musk has long demonstrated his superior scientific and technological wisdom and assertiveness. At the age of 12, he programmed and developed a mini-game, and when other children may still be complacent, he was like an experienced entrepreneur, making a decisive decision, selling the original code of the game, and earning the first pot of gold in his life, $500. 2) An investment banking analyst who hated an MBA, he graduated from Penn university very smoothly, but studied a major that had almost nothing to do with Tesla's auto industry, earning a double bachelor's degree in physics and economics. The economic background may provide a theoretical and original motivational basis for its subsequent judgments on various economic matters. The background of physics laid a solid foundation for its subsequent hard technology entrepreneurial ideas on space technology, brain-computer connectivity, new energy vehicles, and high-speed trains. Regarding academic qualifications and careers, Musk has expressed his disdain for Wall Street investment bank analysts and MBA degrees in multiple public interviews. He thinks it's ridiculous that analysts can predict Tesla stock performance that even he can't predict, and that these top analysts often have an MBA from a top business school. 3) Musk, who abandoned the Bo business in his 20s, also like many American technology entrepreneurs, withdrew from stanford's doctoral studies in materials science as standard to start an entrepreneurial journey. Entrepreneurial achievements are simply "great success in a very short period of time". The first project, Zip2, a piece of software that provides web services to newspaper publishers, was a huge success and was acquired by Compaq Computer in 1999, the craziest of the dot-com bubble, and Musk made a $22 million profit. The second project PayPal, and I don't need to say more about the specific introduction, from musk's founding to the acquisition of only three years, Musk earned $100 million. The third project, SpaceX, has now contracted most of NASA's space launch missions and begun to launch the ambitious satellite communication "Starlink" program. He is still the CEO and chief engineer of the company, which is a true love. In addition to the above three earlier projects and tesla, the subject of this article, 50-year-old Musk is still attacking many fronts, fighting in many commercial battlefields such as Neuralink, artificial intelligence laboratory OpenAL, and "underground pipeline ultra-high-speed train" The Boring Company. The extensive new technologies accumulated in these ventures will also become Tesla's technical reserves. Secondly, Tesla has a deep foundation in the layout of new energy vehicle technology, and has great potential for efficient capacity expansion and improvement. Tesla's current stock market performance is not all from the bubble, but also related to its 3 "sharp weapons" in the fierce competition in the automotive industry. Sharp weapon one: the accumulation of electric vehicle technology is deep, the shortage of components that plague other car companies and the supply chain problems are solved in the face of Tesla's strong scientific and technological innovation. We do not list the new technologies that have not yet been listed, such as the 4680 cylindrical battery jointly developed by Tesla and Panasonic, which claims to be ahead of the entire lithium battery industry for many years. For example, if you take an example that has been achieved, you must remember the dilemma faced by the automotive industry as a whole in the first half of the year - the shortage of chips. So why is Tesla less affected? The reason is that it adjusts the software design and creatively compatibles with chips from different manufacturers. It sounds simple, but there are really few car companies in the world that have Tesla's software development capabilities. Sharp weapon two: Tesla has a patent for battery technology, charging pile assets and a high-performance supercar factory. These will enable Tesla's future production capacity to continue to increase, profitability continues to maintain industry leadership. According to a recent morgan Stanley research report, Tesla's upcoming Texas factory and Berlin factory will continue to increase its production exponentially, and the scale effect will enable Tesla to reduce costs. Production will be a key factor in Tesla's share price changes in 2022.
Sharp weapon three: Tesla never advertises, because there is an "internet celebrity" Musk. Tesla's marketing strategy is very different from that of traditional car companies, never making any form of advertising, but from media reports, especially Musk's social media traffic to find marketing breakthroughs. Mr. Denholm, chairman of Tesla's board of directors, said, "Mr. Musk's strong communication skills on social media are a huge asset for the company. The real connotation of "live streaming with goods" really counts Musk. Leaving aside the fact that his performance at the official media conference is more natural and funny, just take him to publish some strange talk on social media every three to five minutes, which is enough to attract countless attention. People never "live stream with goods", but Tesla's sales have risen as he appears at the top of the hot search list every day. Everything has two sides, Tesla is absolutely impossible to go smoothly, let's talk about why Tesla "can't". First, into the musk, defeat also Musk. Musk often makes a big fuss on social media, and some of them can even lead to fatal crises. For example, in 2018, he suddenly announced tesla's privatization and delisting on social media, and detailed the privatization valuation and the name of the invited acquisition agency. Subsequently, Tesla's stock price fluctuated sharply (mainly up), and subsequently, there was no following. Who is the most clueless? I see it as wall Street short-sellers of Tesla and U.S. securities regulators. The former exploded and suffered heavy losses; the latter was furious, issued a huge fine, and demanded that Musk resign as chairman. Conspiracy theorists may speculate that Musk's motivation may be to short Tesla's fund managers at a smaller cost. But Musk does consistently have a "nonsense" attribute. Like what:
Push the "fart" software upgrade to Tesla owners and vigorously publicize it.
Social media taunted Bezos, taunted Mark Zuckerberg, mocked senior U.S. lawmakers who suggested he pay more taxes, and so on.
Publicly attacked California's COVID-19 epidemic prevention policy and issued statements deliberately reducing the harm of the new crown virus.
Not to mention the gossip and headlines of his private life.
Will these seemingly playful moves hurt his Tesla? So far, the SEC has the heaviest punishment for him to resign as chairman, and if he has similar violations of laws such as securities trading, Tesla's stock price and even the entire supply chain will face a crisis. Second, the competition of automobile companies has intensified, and new forces and traditional car companies have begun to attack Tesla. Just as the so-called gun hits the head bird, Tesla's leading position in the field of electric vehicles is bound to cause it to become the target of public criticism. It mainly faces two major threats from new forces and traditional car companies. Limited by the length of this article, here are just two examples of the two new forces in the United States. At present, in the US market, competitors who have the potential to take Tesla's path and make Tesla have no way to go are Rivian and Lucid, two more mature companies. Rivian specializes in the design and production of electric pickup trucks. Pickup trucks are the number one selling model in the U.S. of all car segments. Rivian's greatest strength lies in the heavy investment and support from Amazon, which is controlled by Bezos, which has announced that it will purchase 100,000 Rivians. It's clear that Musk, musk's almost overt business enemy, Bezos is plotting a plan to take down Tesla.
Lucid is a more typical "Tesla copycat". Its founder is the chief engineer of Tesla's first-generation Model S sports car. Lucid specializes in the manufacture of high-performance electric sports cars, and its first-generation supercar Air Sedan has already received automotive awards of the year, including automotive professional media such as MotorTrend. Its strong correlation with Tesla is also reflected in the stock price, which soared by more than 7% in a single day like Tesla on January 3. Third, accidents such as autopilot are frequent, and Tesla has repeatedly become the focus of negative public opinion. U.S. federal agencies are currently investigating crashes related to Tesla's autopilot that have caused multiple casualties. The investigation also focused on whether Tesla's sales department over-glorified or over-publicized the technology that led to these accidents. Of course, similar autopilot and "three electric" accidents will be more or less common in every electric vehicle company, but Tesla will face such a goodwill impairment risk because of its huge brand influence in the world and considerable ownership. Tesla Concept Theme Fund Performance Review
After reading the above analysis of Tesla's strengths and weaknesses, we will expand to the domestic stock market and fund market, showing the stock and fund returns around the Tesla concept. First, look at the problem from a supply chain perspective. Turning your attention to the domestic stock market, as of January 4, as shown in the chart below, the Tesla Index from Wonderland (884216. WI) has soared nearly 36 percent in a year and is currently at an all-time high.
This index includes domestic enterprises involved in production and operation activities around the Tesla supply chain, involving specific industries such as molds, batteries, motors, and on-board electronic equipment, and the more popular names in the investment circles such as Ningde Times, BYD, Ganfeng Lithium, and Lens Technology are covered, which can be said to be a typical target of Tesla's concept of domestic investment. From a very critical valuation perspective, the pee of this index is currently at an all-time high and above the danger value, which may not be a good time for investors who advocate value investment.
Second, from the perspective of the fund. As of January 4, according to the data of the daily fund network, the Tesla concept public fund has a yield of 31.91% in the past year, ranking 18th among all 82 theme concepts, which is in a good situation. However, the performance in the past month has been unsatisfactory, with a yield of -3.06%, ranking only the tenth from the bottom of 85 themes. We can find that the above-mentioned Tesla index from Wonder has not had such a significant drawdown in the past month. It can be seen that in the past month, the Tesla concept index and the Tesla theme fund have diverged sharply. So why is there such a divergence? The reason is that the weight of all 56 stocks in the Tesla index is the same as 1.79%, which makes the Ningde era of super market capitalization and the small market value of Yinfei storage contribute to the overall rise and fall of the index. In the past month, the trend of auto parts and electronic components stocks is significantly better than that of lithium battery new energy companies, which has played a role in hedging each other and the overall upward result. The reason for the sluggish performance of the Tesla fund is mainly because the Tesla concept stocks that the fund has a heavy position are concentrated in those lithium battery new energy stocks with large market value, such as Ningde Times, Ganfeng Lithium, etc., and these new energy stocks have performed very badly in the past month. After reading these earnings data, I summarized the following views: 1. Tesla concept stock has performed steadily in the past year, but the valuation is at a historical high. 2. Tesla theme fund has performed better in the past year, but there has been a significant drawdown in the past month. 3. Whether Tesla concept stocks and funds can have investment value in 2022 also needs to return to the protagonist of Tesla. This is very relevant to the analysis of Tesla in the first part of this article. End
Letting go of the obsession with investment, we must admit that regardless of the success or failure, Musk and Tesla have brought profound changes to the lives of all mankind, and electric vehicles have played and will continue to play an important role in the road of sustainable development of mankind. In 2022, I am more looking forward to seeing the new "Tesla" and "Musk" appear on the entrepreneurial stage.