The New Year is here, let's have some fun!
After all, many times the pain comes from comparison, seeing that people have more year-end awards than themselves, and the mood is easy to be anxious and depressed;
But if you see that others have lost a lot of money, in addition to showing the sympathy of friends, there may be a trace of unkind relief in the depths of your heart;
I intend to use the second as a gift to give you a little comfort to your soul, which has nowhere to rest because of its irritability.
preface
Comrades and friends!
6 years have passed, from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2021, I lost 38.56 percentage points of the CSI 300 Index by strength, and there is a truth:
What the? You asked me why I started in 16 years, because 15 years is so tragic, so at the end of 15 years, in order to be in a better mood, I changed to the current brokerage, so I only showed the data from the beginning of 16 years.
Although the data started in 16 years, I really can't forget it in 15 years.
So, the story still has to start from 15 years.
One
In 2015, coinciding with the 70th anniversary of the victory of the War of Resistance Against Japan, relations in the Taiwan Strait were tense, the international situation was delicate, and the military industry was bullish.
In the fiery years of the bull market, I looked at a few steel hammers in my hand, just like the clever woman who had no rice, the Lü Bu who lost the red rabbit horse, and the monkey was anxious like the great saint who could not find the golden hoop stick.
There are lofty ambitions in the air, looking at the big market that happened once in ten years, and it is difficult to sleep.
Finally made up my mind: why not come to a big one, less struggle for three or five years!
What if I don't have the principal?
Remembering a little brother I met before, young (about 25 years old), he joined forces with several buddies, used some small tricks and means, and applied for a credit card with a limit of about 500,000 yuan in each bank, purchased a batch of pos machines, and used the machine to brush out the money.
Relying on the interest-free period of the credit card and the difference between the wealth management income and the card fee before the swipe fee, with 2-30 million rolling funds, earning a nearly risk-free return, and making a fortune in just a few years.
Do you remember the era when The Balance Treasure 6%+ was more?
Did you hate yourself at that time for not having enough principal, after all, 10 million funds, a year of 600,000 income, ah, anyway, I am envious and jealous!
Time is running out!
But we know that time is money, and efficiency is the most reasonable saying of life.
After a weekend of intense and serious comparison, I finally chose a pos that can be T+0 to the account.
T+1 is really afraid to use it, I am afraid that stealing chicken will not make it and losing the rice.
Place an order to pay, arrive two days, and apply for a credit card withdrawal at the same time.
After two hours of anxious waiting, the money from the card arrived, and the mood rose instantly.
After weighing it up confidently, I bought the Military B.
That's right, it was the tiered fund that was later wiped out by the CSRC.
At that time, graded funds ran rampant in the investment of the jianghu, class A was responsible for defense, and class B was responsible for offense, what a perfect combination.
(Looking back at the time, I probably knew that this product design was flawed, but who cares about so much, do not sprint at this time, do you have to regret the bear market?) ）
Do you understand, I bought a highly leveraged product with leveraged funds.
As a result, the first day of buying, it grew by 3%, and then it went up and down for three consecutive days. The money in the account is soaring according to compound interest, which is too exciting, equivalent to a 37% increase in 4 days+.
The fifth day opened with a limit, opened in the afternoon, and traded sideways with an 8% gain, and finally closed at -3%.
It doesn't matter, normal adjustment, fall is healthier.
Consolidate the chips for better growth in the future.
And then what
Then there was no more, the stock market crash came, the book went from profits close to 6 figures to losses close to 6 figures, a dismal end...
To sum up, leverage + leverage + concept + overvaluation.
At that time, the military industry was about a price-earnings ratio of 200-300, and now look, it is too high for him!
But at that time, it was a bull market, and in the bull market, did anyone still look at the price-earnings ratio, and everyone looked at the market dream rate!
Two
World War I fame!
Thanks to me, I haven't eased up for a year.
It seems that it is still necessary to take the right path. He was originally a well-behaved child, and it seemed that he was doomed to not earn the money on this kind of knife edge.
In order to make a return on my capital and prove my business vision, I turned my attention to growth stock investment.
Go to the market to find and buy the young Tencent, Amazon, Google, NVIDIA, etc., with time to accompany them to grow, and when they become towering trees, I will also achieve (return to the original) name (prove my business vision).
Due to limited funds, I do not have accounts for Hong Kong stocks and US stocks, and can only be carefully screened in A shares, god has eyes, and finally selected two.
The first is to make supercomputers, and the impression is that there are 10 world-class supercomputers in China, and 7 of them are produced by their family.
The other is only to do the secondary development of the Android system, almost all Chinese mobile phone manufacturers have purchased its mature development modules, that is to say, whether it is a big brand or a miscellaneous brand, as long as it is a mobile phone, it is all his customers.
Although at that time, the mobile phone had passed the era of volume growth, and the growth curve had slowed down, but this company, in addition, opened up the Internet of Vehicles business as a new growth point, and there was another business that was also laid out.
That is to say, the company's first curve grows steadily, the second and third curves are properly laid out, and the growth can be expected.
After thinking, the first technical strength is strong, is the state-owned background, the supercomputer is really powerful, but also does win glory for the country, but how to commercialize, do not understand.
Second, the business model is clear, optimistic about the future iterative development of mobile phones, and as a stable upstream of mobile phone manufacturers, profitability is guaranteed.
The Internet of Vehicles and intelligent manufacturing modules are also super beautiful directions, coupled with excellent management, the founding team of technical origins, the chairman has led the team to visit Huawei many times, always taking Huawei as an example, technology is king, attaching importance to research and development, and the management is relatively stable.
How to look at this is like a copy of Peter Lynch's growth stock investment standards.
I decisively gave up the first one and re-warehoused the second one.
In the process of its decline from more than 80 to 50, I began to buy in batches, although the price seems to be more expensive, but I am going to accompany it to grow for a long time, and the short-term fluctuations are floating clouds.
Once the performance breaks through, at least 100 yuan, the performance of the volume, 120-130 is also very normal, encounter a good situation, 150-160 is not impossible.
Then, it began to enter a bear market that was slowly falling.
The GEM actually fell from 4000 to 1200.
I've always been committed to the philosophy of value investing, paying serious and intense attention to each issue of its quarterly report (what, read the annual report, do you think I'm waiting for a year and a year).
Looking at the quarterly report, I consoled myself: it's okay, the R&D investment is stable, the management is dedicated, there are no major strategic mistakes, and the performance is not too bad, although it did not exceed expectations.
Later, the R & D investment was stable, the management was dedicated, there were no major strategic mistakes, and the performance occasionally did not meet expectations!
If you do this, my mentality is a little bad.
Because the performance did not meet expectations, the market in the bear market did not buy its high valuation, looking at the price-earnings ratio of more than 100 times, I began to panic.
The heart began to be in a state of repeated suffering in a state of still optimistic about its long-term development and expecting its short-term outbreak to rise.
Finally I accompanied it down to more than 20.
Ironically, the first one I gave up decisively, has doubled in the process, due to the steady high growth of performance, it has become a rare bull stock in the bear market, from more than 20 to more than 50.
The buddies finally couldn't hold back and cut off the horse with tears.
Thinking back to that conversation with my assistant at that time, I really wanted to slap myself twice.
The assistant asked: Feige, you see this company (this first is our long-term cooperation customer) is so powerful, the performance is good, why don't you buy something?
I replied meaningfully: Because I found something better than it.
To summarize:
Buy high-valued growth stocks at high prices, dance with wolves, and be bruised.
In this battle, the loss was about 60% of the last one.
ps：
Friends, did you make it, a year and a half after I sold it, it peaked at 167 and is now 138.
Please stick your slap out and wait for me!
Three
The night was long, lonely and sleepless, and after 19 years, the situation was better, but I had no bullets.
There is no way to re-position to seek a return to the cost, thinking of learning some trading strategies, changing your brain, and cleaning up the mood to wait for the comeback.
I carefully studied the three main strategies, asset allocation, target market capitalization, and grid.
Since the first two are particularly anti-human long-term strategies.
So I focused on the grid, and then I finally found a good trading instrument: oil.
Looking back at the curve of oil, often fluctuating up and down around a trend line, there are several opportunities in a year to achieve high throw and low suction, repeatedly make money, really love it too much, so perfect!
After observing for a while, I took the shot.
For insurance, I deliberately waited for it to be 5% of the trend line, that is, when it was in the second network of others, before starting my first network, less than 10 days of smooth withdrawal of 5%, the experience is good.
When it reached the same level, I started buying again.
And then, it, it, it, it doesn't bounce back, all the way down, all the way down, all the way down, all the way down,
All the way down、、、
When others were afraid, I followed the teachings of the saints and began to be greedy.
In the face of this once-in-a-century opportunity, I broke through the grid strategy and began to gradually bottom out, and the grid test allowed me to slowly buy into a heavy position.
Finally, you all know, in 2020, a few months after my bullets ran out, the international oil price fell below 0 yuan.
Comrades, friends, I really ran out of money.
You have to ask me, if I had money at that time, would I still make up the position, I really don't know.
At that time, no one really knew whether oil prices would rise back.
If I had money, I might have already hit out in the process of bottoming out;
Maybe looking at the BOC crude oil treasure gang of difficult brothers and sisters, I really instigated, scared to pee, dare not buy again.
I just remember that I began to pay attention to and seriously study the situation in the Gulf, pay attention to the dynamics of the OPEC meeting, watch Putin and the oil-producing countries not reduce production, and hate it、、、、、
Thank you for world peace, thank you to the party and the government.
Under the leadership of the Communist Party of China, the Chinese government and people have set an example for the world to fight the epidemic.
The economic machine has turned again.
By the end of 2020, oil prices had picked up.
I bit my lip out of the blood and watched it bounce back step by step.
Finally one day back to my cost line.
The moment I clicked Sell, I changed my mind.
This breed that almost got me heart disease, do I just let it go?
No, no, absolutely not, at least I'm going to make 4% interest and sell.
As you might expect, the next day it fell again, and so did the second and third days.
Oh, my God!
Comrades and friends, there was once a sincere love placed in front of me, I did not cherish, until I lost it, I regretted it, the most painful thing in the world is nothing more than this, nothing more than this、、、、、、
In the midst of extreme pain and suffering, it finally rebounded again.
After it went back to 90% of my cost price and followed by a big yin line.
This time I peed directly and cut out.
In this battle, the loss was about 20% of the first battle.
Summary: Easily break through the trading strategy, just play, you actually fall in love, ah! Scum!
epilogue
Did you see a different teacher?
Seeing me so miserable, are you in a better mood?
Seeing that I am improving more and more (and the amount of loss is decreasing every time), are you happy for me from the bottom of your heart?
Posted on 2022-01-02 20:57