Goodbye 2021, hello 2022.
Looking back at the 2021 year that has just turned the page, some people are happy, some people are worried; some people have caught big bull stocks, and some people have bumped into "black swans", and differentiation has once again become the main tone of A-share 2021:
Lucky people, in the bull market: in 2021, more than 320 stocks (new stocks listed in 2021 have been excluded) have risen by more than 100%, and 24 stocks have risen by more than 300%, and Hubei Yihua has risen by more than 566% during the year, becoming the king of A-shares in 2021.
Thunderstorms, bear market torment: as many as 240 stocks fell by more than 30% in 2021, and 28 stocks were slashed, the annual decline of public education in China was more than 77%, suffered 2 waist cuts, and 23 listed companies were delisted in 2021, a record high.
In 2021, the topic of "A-share earnings per capita of 50,000" has made many investors become the target of the average. In this year, although the major A-share indexes were not alarmed, the market funds were terrifying, and the total transaction amount of the whole year reached 257.25 trillion yuan, exceeding 254 trillion yuan in 2015, setting a new record for A-shares.
By sorting out the movements of public funds, northbound funds, quantitative transactions and leveraged funds, the main reason for the record turnover of A-shares in 2021 is that the large-scale position adjustment game of public offering institutions, quantitative transactions are becoming more and more popular, and northbound funds continue to allocate A-shares, rather than the entry of large-scale incremental funds. In addition, the continuous growth of the A-share market has made the A-share transaction amount a historical record.
rare! A shares traded 257 trillion yuan a year
The 2021 year of A-shares has officially come to an end, and this year, although the major indexes are not alarmed on the surface, the amount of market transaction funds is magnificent, directly creating the highest transaction record in the history of A-shares.
According to Wind data, as of the close of trading on December 31, 2021, the annual turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen has reached 257.25 trillion yuan, exceeding 254 trillion yuan in 2015, a record high.
Purely from the perspective of total transactions, the 2021 year of A shares can be described as very intense, and the liquidity of funds is very sufficient. Specifically, during the period from March to May 2021, the trading volume of A-shares was once very sluggish, and the single-day turnover exceeded trillion yuan, but after entering July, the single-day turnover of more than one trillion yuan has become the norm, and the transaction amount of more than one trillion yuan has been created for 49 consecutive trading days.
Such a hot trading volume is also very rare in the history of A-shares. A share single-day turnover exceeded one trillion yuan began at the end of 2014, followed by 2015 staged a round of vigorous bull market, under the blessing of the bull market, single-day trillion turnover has become the new normal of A shares in 2015, the turnover of 114 trading days in that year exceeded trillion yuan, during which the transaction amount of 99 consecutive trading days exceeded trillion yuan, and this record has been maintained to this day.
Although the turnover of A shares in 2021 hit a record high, the trend of A shares has not been significantly strengthened, and it has been in a sideways pattern. As of the close of trading on December 31, the Shanghai index was at 3600 points, up 4.8% during the year; the Shenzhen Component Index was up 2.7% during the year; and the ChiNext Index was relatively strong, up 12% during the year.
From a global perspective, the growth rate of A shares in 2021 is not outstanding, and the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Composite Index are almost at the bottom of the world. The Hong Kong market performed the worst, with the Hang Seng Index falling 14.1% in 2021, the lowest in the global market.
So the question is, while the trading volume of A-shares is so hot, why are the three major indexes not alarmed? Behind such a huge transaction amount, who is buying? Who's selling?
The fiercest game
Behind the turnover of more than 260 trillion yuan in 2021, the main driving force is inseparable from the following forces:
Since 2021, the largest "gold owner" of A-shares, the public fund, has contributed most of the trading volume to a certain extent.
According to Wind data, as of now, since 2021, the scale of public fund issuance has exceeded the 3 trillion mark, 3.05 trillion yuan, which is also the second annual new fund issuance scale of the public fund industry after 2020 to exceed 3 trillion yuan.
Compared with the new funds, the influence brought by the restructuring of the huge existing public funds will be stronger. According to data released by the Asset Management Association of China, as of the end of November, the number of public funds in China reached 9,152, with a net asset value of 25.32 trillion yuan, a record high. As of the end of the third quarter, the total market value of A shares held by public funds was 5.72 trillion yuan, accounting for 8.31% of the circulating market value of A shares, the highest level in the past decade, and once there is a sustained large-scale rebalancing, it will inevitably have a direct impact on the trading volume of A shares.
A large brokerage source said that since the second half of 2021, there has been a certain divergence in the funds of institutional investors, and the signs of continuous position adjustment are obvious, so the overall transaction of the A-share market has begun to be active, but the A-share market has not appeared a significant joint pull-up trend.
Looking at it again, A shares are another important force that cannot be ignored: foreign capital.
According to Wind data, as of the close of trading on December 30, the total turnover of northbound funds in the year has exceeded 27.5 trillion yuan, accounting for more than 10% of the total turnover of A-shares, which also directly enlarges the total trading volume of A-shares.
In terms of horizontal comparison, the total turnover of northbound funds in 2021 increased by more than 31% compared with 2020, and increased by more than 1700% compared with 1.47 trillion yuan in 2015.
In addition, the enthusiasm of northbound funds to allocate A shares in 2021 is still high, as of the close of December 31, northbound funds have accumulated net purchases of A-shares in the year has exceeded 430 billion yuan, which is 20 times more than in 2015.
In addition to public funds and northbound funds, in 2021, quantitative funds are undoubtedly the most concerned force in the market, and it is also one of the reasons for the record turnover of A-shares.
Many people in the industry believe that since 2021, the quantitative trading volume of A shares has increased significantly, contributing a large part of the turnover of A shares. According to the investigation of the Chinese reporter of the securities company, in the second half of 2021, the quantitative trading day turnover of the A-share market is about 200 billion yuan, and the transaction proportion in the whole market is about 20%.
In addition, since the implementation of the registration system on the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the ChiNext Board, the limit on the rise and fall of individual stocks has been expanded to ±20%, providing stronger operability for quantitative trading, and some short-term quantitative traders are more active.
In fact, since the new regulations on asset management in 2018, quantitative private placement has developed very rapidly, and tens of billions of quantitative private placements have emerged rapidly. In the first half of 2021, quantitative private equity ushered in another wave of great development. As of the end of July 2021, the scale of quantitative private placement has officially exceeded one trillion, and as of the end of December, the number of quantitative private equity firms has risen from 11 at the end of 2020 to 27, and the proportion of quantitative private placement in the entire private securities market has also increased to more than 21%, compared with 40% of mature markets, there is still room for further growth.
In addition, leveraged funds are also the most active force in the A-share market. At present, the scale of A-share financing margin is approaching the scale of 2 trillion yuan, and as of the close of trading on December 30, the scale of A-share financing reached 1,840.8 billion yuan, setting a new high in nearly 6 years since July 3, 2015.
Finally, individual investors into the market is also one of the forces that can not be ignored, according to the data disclosed by China Settlement, as of the end of November, the number of A-share investors reached 1.96, in the first 11 months of 2021, the number of new A-share investors reached 18.2598 million, which has exceeded the new scale of 2020 and is a new high since 2017.
The other side of the 257 trillion turnover
In fact, it may be inevitable that the A-share turnover will refresh the historical record in 2021, because the volume of A-shares is growing rapidly, and the market funds are naturally rising.
In 2021, the number of new stocks listed on the A-share market reached 524, raising more than 540 billion yuan, including many giants with a market value of more than 100 billion yuan such as China Telecom, Three Gorges Energy, and BeiGene, while only 23 were delisted during the year.
If you look at the long cycle, in the past 3 years, the number of A-share listed companies has increased by more than 1100, the number of A-share listed companies has increased by about 75% in the past 6 years, and the inflow of fresh blood has continuously pushed up the volume of A-shares, the pool is getting bigger and bigger, and the water level of the pool will naturally rise.
This can also be confirmed by the indicator of the turnover rate of A shares (turnover relative to the market value of circulation), although the turnover of A shares in 2021 hit a record high, but the turnover rate of A shares has not increased significantly, and has remained below 4%. During the 2015 bull market, the daily turnover rate of A shares often exceeded 5%, and the highest daily turnover rate once reached 8.19%.
Obviously, the total transaction amount of A-shares in 2021 will exceed 257 trillion yuan, which has a certain relationship with the growth of A-shares. This also explains why the trading volume continues to be hot, but the trend of A shares is not alarming, and it continues to be sideways.
Combined with the volume of A shares, turnover rate and other indicators, the current transaction amount of A shares continues to enlarge, not caused by large-scale incremental capital entry, mainly due to on-site funds, A shares or will still be dominated by structural markets, and the fierce fluctuations of popular tracks may continue.
Looking forward to 2022, most institutions are generally optimistic about the funding of A shares.
Among them, public funds are still the most important source of incremental funds for A-shares, and are expected to provide trillions of yuan of incremental funds for the A-share market. CITIC Securities expects a net inflow of 850 billion yuan for public funds in 2022. CICC is more optimistic, expecting that the contribution of equity and hybrid public funds to the incremental funds of A-shares in 2022 may be 0.9 trillion to 1.2 trillion yuan.
In terms of northbound funds, institutions generally give net inflow expectations of 300 billion to 400 billion yuan. CITIC Securities expects that in 2022, northbound funds will still increase their allocation of A shares, with a net inflow of about 400 billion yuan. CICC said that the net inflow of overseas funds into A-shares in the whole year may be 200 billion to 400 billion yuan.
In addition, under the general tone of not speculating in housing, real estate is no longer the best asset allocation tool, and the trend of residents' funds entering the market may continue in 2022. Cinda Securities expects that the incremental funds transferred by the bank and securities in 2022 will be about 100 billion yuan.
Brokerage China