At the end of the year, taking stock of the industry, the most promising and popular industry sectors of the stock market, wind power is a major sunrise industry and a hot topic in the stock market that cannot be ignored.
Near the end of the year, wind power is good again!
On December 25, the Three Gorges Yangjiang Shaba Offshore Wind Farm, located in the south of Shapi Town, Yangxi County, Yangjiang City, Guangdong Province, achieved full capacity grid-connected power generation, becoming China's first megawatt-class offshore wind power project.
The project will provide about 4.7 billion kWh of clean electricity to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area every year, meet the annual electricity consumption of about 2 million households, save about 1.5 million tons of standard coal and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about 4 million tons per year.
The Yangjiang Wind Power Project has once again absorbed wind power in China and become one of the most promising and promising clean energy sources under the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.
It is worth mentioning that the Yangjiang wind power project belongs to offshore wind power, and the public account of Zhongjin Dianqing believes that the wind power industry is experiencing land-sea resonance, and the upward cycle of the industry is more established.
The reason why the upward cycle of the wind power industry is more established is inseparable from the clean energy substitution under the "double carbon" goal, the wind power industry gradually entering the era of parity, and the gradual realization of domestic substitution of wind power equipment.
First, wind power is one of the more certain clean energy sources under the "double carbon" implementation path。
Countries around the world have successively established offshore wind power targets。 China is also vigorously developing wind power, and the current installed capacity of wind power grid connection has exceeded the 300 million kilowatt mark, ranking first in the world for 12 consecutive years. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, coastal provinces have set wind power targets, and CICC expects that the new installed capacity of wind power in China during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is expected to achieve an average annual average of more than 55GW and more than 70GW under conservative and optimistic conditions.
Second, parity is the premise for large-scale application of wind power.
After years of development, China's wind power technology level is increasingly improved, the development of the industry is becoming more and more mature, the encouragement policy is gradually decreasing, and the industry is about to enter the era of parity.
From 2021, newly approved onshore wind power projects will fully achieve grid parity, and the state will no longer subsidize。 From 2022, it will enter a full price parity, and the newly connected projects will be on the Internet at an affordable price. Like onshore wind, domestic offshore wind power will also usher in a transition period of parity. According to the research report of Zheshang Securities, the wind power partnership plan strives to reduce the cost of offshore and far-reaching wind power to 0.4 yuan and 0.5 yuan in 2025, respectively, and offshore wind power strives to achieve full parity in 2024.
Third, domestic substitution can be expected.
Although China's wind power equipment did not start early, it has formed a complete wind power industry chain and supply chain with leading level and global competitiveness, becoming the world's largest producer of wind power equipment, accounting for more than half of the world's output.
From the perspective of the current industrial chain development, most of the components of wind power have been localized, but a few components such as the main bearings, converters, transformers and pitch systems of large-capacity offshore wind turbines are still dependent on imports.
With the advancement of the "double carbon" goal, the investment in the wind power industry is accelerating, and under the high prosperity, it is expected to promote the development of technology again, and domestic replacement can be expected.
Wind power equipment company performance "gratifying"
Boosted by the investment brought by the demand of the wind power industry, industrial chain enterprises have ushered in a spring breeze of development, and the development of wind power towers, submarine cables and machine operators is in full swing.
Zhongjin Dianqing public account wrote that the business model of the whole machine / tower / submarine cable link is relatively excellent, the whole machine and tower enterprises have incremental business space, and the value of the submarine cable in the process of wind turbine large-scale is expected to remain at least unchanged, and these three areas have a large market space.
First, the whole machine
Specific to the field of the whole machine, the domestic listed companies mainly include Goldwind Technology, Mingyang Intelligence, Electric Wind Power, Yunda Shares, Dongfang Electric, and Sany Heavy Energy.
What has changed in the performance of wind turbine operators since 2020 and the "double carbon" target?
In the first three quarters of 2021, from the perspective of revenue scale, Goldwind technology and Dongfang Electric ranked in the forefront of wind power machine manufacturers with revenues of 33.550 billion yuan and 33.419 billion yuan respectively. Followed by electric wind power and Mingyang Intelligence, the revenue scale of Yunda shares is relatively small.
However, from the perspective of revenue growth that reflects the growth of enterprises, electric wind power is far ahead with 88.47%, followed by Yunda Shares, Dongfang Electric and Mingyang Intelligence. In the first three quarters of this year, Goldwind achieved a growth rate of -9.4%, which was unexpected.
From the perspective of net profit scale, Mingyang Intelligent has extraordinary strength, and the net profit attributable to the mother in the first three quarters of this year reached 2.161 billion yuan, ranking behind Goldwind Technology and surpassing Dongfang Electric's 1.866 billion yuan. However, from the perspective of net profit growth, Yunda shares are absolutely leading with 287.76%, followed by 252.20% of electric wind power. Mingyang Intelligent also achieved a high growth rate of 131.71%.
Overall, the net profit growth of the whole machine operators has performed well, which is inseparable from the cost reduction and efficiency increase brought about by the large-scale of wind turbines and technological progress. The well-performing net profit has also allowed these companies to gain high popularity in the secondary market. Since the beginning of this year, Yunda shares have risen by more than 160%, Dongfang Electric has exceeded 115%, and Mingyang Intelligent has risen by more than 35%.
Second, the tower
The main listed companies of tower enterprises are Tianshun Wind Energy, Daikin Heavy Industry, Taisheng Wind Energy, Tianneng Heavy Industry and Haili Wind Power.
Judging from the performance of the first three quarters of 2021, the market can feel that the wind power generation boom is being transmitted to industrial chain enterprises. Haili Wind Power and Daikin Heavy Industry's revenue growth rate is eye-catching, of which Haili wind power revenue growth has doubled, and Daikin Heavy Industry has increased by more than 57% year-on-year.
The net profit attributable to the mother performed well also by Haili Wind Power and Daikin Heavy Industry. The net profit attributable to Haili Wind Power exceeded 140%, and Daikin Heavy Industry exceeded 40%.
Haili Wind Power has just been listed on the Growth Enterprise Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in November 2021, and its main products are wind power towers, pile foundations and conduit racks, covering mainstream specifications such as 2MW to 5MW and high-power products such as 6.45MW and 8MW.
Unfortunately, although the performance is eye-catching, the company's stock price has fallen by more than 28% (as of the close of December 24), on the contrary, the stock price of Daikin Heavy Industry has risen more than 3 times this year, Tianshun Wind Energy has exceeded 1.35 times, Tianneng Heavy Industry has risen by more than 67%, and most of the wind power tower stocks have gained good gains.
Third, submarine cables
The main listed companies of submarine cable are Dongfang Cable, Zhongtian Technology, Hengtong Optoelectronics, Han Cable and Baosheng.
In terms of revenue scale, in the first three quarters of 2021, Zhongtian Technology and Baosheng shares ranked first, achieving 37.394 billion yuan and 31.615 billion yuan respectively during the period, and the revenue scale of Dongfang Cable was relatively small, only 5.773 billion yuan. However, from the perspective of revenue growth, Dongfang Cable is far ahead with a growth rate of 63.91%, and its net profit growth rate attributable to the mother is also as high as 56.76%, leading comparable companies.
Benefiting from the growth shown by the performance, the stock price of Dongfang Cable has risen by more than 85% this year, and the stock price of Zhongtian Technology, the performance "Dana", has risen by more than 49%.
From the perspective of the general trend of the development of the wind power industry, demand to promote the development of the industry is on the one hand, but technology is still the core force that dominates the development of the wind power industry. The technical path of wind power is relatively clear, and along this trend, the cost reduction and efficiency increase brought about by the large-scale wind turbine will become the endogenous growth momentum of the wind turbine industry, which will generally benefit the industrial chain enterprises.
Among the whole machine manufacturers, the large-scale technical advantages of the unit, and the large-capacity units that have realized the lifting and grid connection of the prototype at present, mainly include Mingyang Intelligent 10MW, Dongfang Electric 10MW, Electric Wind Power 8MW and Goldwind Technology 10MW.
Wind turbine parts have become an important consideration in the implementation path of wind turbine large-scale, among which the use of carbon fiber by wind power blades has become an important landing path for wind turbine lightweighting. Carbon fiber materials have high hardness and light weight, which can significantly reduce weight, and can also improve the weather resistance of wind power blades, which is in line with the trend of large-scale wind power blades. In 2015, Vestas began to apply carbon fiber, leading wind power blades into the era of carbon fiber. At present, the domestic Sinoma Technology, Zhongfu Lianzhong, etc. have launched carbon fiber blades, if you want to know more about carbon fiber, you can check the Caihua Society's "domestic carbon fiber breeding new opportunities" related topics.
Li Ying