Author: Yin Da Source: Yan Finance Bureau
It was originally trapped in a minefield that was bound to die;
But looking at the fragmented information revealed now, it is still possible to see that the situation seems to be improving!
That is to say, evergrande's development is likely not to fall down and be dismantled, but from "serious injury and incurable" to a glimmer of vitality.
The story does not develop into an imaginary template;
It is really surprising, the script does not dare to write like this, Evergrande may resist this wave.
Peeking at the leopard from the following points may be visible.
First, from the beginning of the month when the Guangdong working group entered the market, to the middle of the month to find out the situation to suspend the disposal of assets.
On December 3, Evergrande announced that it could not fulfill its obligation of guaranteeing US$260 million, which was equivalent to announcing that "I can't hold back, come and save me". On the same day, the central bank and several major ministries and commissions spoke out one after another, and then the Guangdong provincial government sent a working group to Evergrande.
According to the conventional thinking, and there are HNA disposal cases in front of it. When the working group entered the scene, its job was to dispose of assets and then reorganize the bankruptcy of Evergrande Group.
The goal is to resolve debt and minimize risk and impact.
However, immediately after that, it was reported that on December 12, the working group orally notified Evergrande's regional companies, requesting the suspension of all asset disposal matters under Evergrande.
Insiders revealed that the reason for the suspension of the disposal of assets should be to clarify the true situation of assets and liabilities.
Around that time, the working group proposed that all executives of companies that had provided personal guarantees for Evergrande's debts and had not yet been processed must report the guarantee.
Looking at the above integration, it reveals many possibilities: First of all, Evergrande's assets and liabilities are more complicated than imagined, but they may not be insoluble!!
At the beginning, it was rushing to dispose of assets and bankruptcy reorganization, but in the process, it was found that "there is still anger", and perhaps there is salvation, which must be rethought.
It is impossible to look at it and still have a breath, and insist on sending it to the crematorium, right?!
Secondly, many executives with vested interests have made guarantees when financing, so executives have the responsibility to take money out to save the scene.
These big guys have a lot of family backgrounds, they used to eat and drink spicy, and now they are in trouble, it is time to see the truth; and xu Jiayin, even if he is an iron man, can't play a few big nails, but so many executives are working together, the situation is completely different.
Second, Evergrande's resumption rate exceeded 90%, that is to say, it returned to before the thunderstorm!
According to first financial reports, as of December 26, Evergrande's national resumption rate was 91.7%, an increase of 40% over the "Baojiao Building Oath Conference" in early September, and the number of resumed workers was 89,000.
Just look at this data, we have to admit that the discounted house is true, and the "guarantee and delivery of the building" is also true!
Otherwise, under extreme difficulties, it is impossible to have such a high rate of resumption of work.
And this data should have been reviewed by the government working group, there should be no moisture, and no one dares to release water.
Moreover, it is reported that more than 80% of builders have resumed cooperation, and more than 80% of long-term cooperative material suppliers have also resumed supply, signing 6869 material supply contracts.
Why are so many builders and suppliers resuming cooperation?
It must be that all aspects of the negotiation, the business know how to choose, two choose one, Evergrande poured may never get the money, it comes back to life, then there will be money to earn.
Moreover, there must be the silent support of the government working group behind this, and it is easy to solve it with confidence.
These data alone can be judged that Evergrande is likely not to follow the old road of bankruptcy and reorganization of HNA.
Third, I thought that Hengchi Automobile was also "Jabs's PPT car", but now it seems that it is not.
Today, there is news that Evergrande Automobile's first new car, Hengchi 5, has finally officially rolled off the production line.
Later, the Economic Observer Network reporter asked Evergrande Automobile for verification, and insiders said, "It is not counted (officially off the line), but the (assembly line) is fully through." As for when to go offline, the other party said "soon, wait".
In my opinion, the credibility of this matter is still very large, at least stronger than Jabs shouted for several years of PPT car building.
Xu Jiayin recently stressed: Never allow anyone in Evergrande to lie flat, and the leaders at all levels of the group must lead all employees, carry forward the spirit of never giving up, and continue to work hard and fight day and night. As long as we do a good job in resuming work and production at all costs and doing a good job in project construction, we will certainly be able to deliver the house to the owner, and we will certainly be able to resume sales, resume operations, and pay off debts.
This statement obviously means that Evergrande must be saved!
A large part of the bottom line should come from Hengchi Automobile, after all, this is the real thing, it can attract huge amounts of money!
With the laying of eggs, there is no worry about not being able to make a comeback.
So, the question is, what about the investors, the groups that buy houses?
Investors who stepped on Evergrande Thunder are estimated to have to wait.
Evergrande has just come out of the ICU, so that it can go to work at once to mine and repay the money, which is estimated to be unlikely.
But now that Evergrande is gradually recovering, it is definitely much stronger than the end of the building and the indefinite cessation of financial management.
After all, Evergrande's resumption rate is super high, the guarantee of housing is basically a nail, and the financial payment is also sooner or later, and the probability will be better than the institutional fund redemption.
In life, you either have money or goods.
Evergrande does not have much money in hand now, but its assets are still quite a lot. Looking at the sporadic information, it is basically certain that Evergrande is saved.
I have to say that it is definitely much better to be able to come back from the dead than to fall, and once it falls, it is the scene of the disaster; turning the crisis into safety is equivalent to lifting the time bomb.
There are enough unemployed people, and it is good to have one less family.
Moreover, this way of resolving is also a demonstration for other housing enterprises.
A stick directly overturns a boat of people, good or bad a pot of stew is certainly not right.
Due to the policies and specific solutions of enterprises, it can not only revitalize enterprises, but also protect ordinary investors;
Why not!