Written by / Cow heel Shang
Edit / Huang Dalu
Design / Zhao Haoran
Caption / Shi Yuchao
2021 is the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan for China's National Economic and Social Development (referred to as the "14th Five-Year Plan"), and every five years an economic development plan was originally a plan for major construction projects, the distribution of productive forces and the important proportion of the national economy, etc., and set goals and directions for the long-term development of the national economy. Due to the long cycle and strong planning of the automobile industry, the five-year plan method has been borrowed and adopted by more and more automobile companies.
On August 18, Geely Automobile Holdings Limited (HK.0175) released its financial report for the first half of 2021: Geely Automobile's total sales of 630237 vehicles, up about 19% year-on-year; revenue reached 45 billion yuan, an increase of 22% year-on-year.
The financial report also announced the outline of Geely's five-year plan for business development: by 2025, the market share ranks first among Chinese brands, with sales reaching 3.65 million vehicles (including extreme krypton vehicles), of which smart electric vehicles account for more than 30%. Among them, Extreme Kr Automobile will rank among the top three in the world in the high-end electric vehicle market share by 2025, with sales of 650,000 units.
A month ago, on July 15, On its 68th birthday, China FAW released its 14th Five-Year Development Plan and 14th Five-Year Plan for Technological Innovation:
By 2025, sales will be 6.5 million, of which more than 1 million are Faw-hongqi brands and more than 2 million are independent brands; among them, in terms of new energy vehicles, the whole group accounts for 20%, independent passenger cars account for more than 30%, and Hongqi brands account for more than 40%; by 2030, strive to realize the electrification of most independent passenger cars.
On the same day, less than 6 years after its establishment, Zero-Run Cars released a 2.0 strategy, and in 2025, zero-run car sales will reach 800,000 units. The orders in the first half of the zero run were only 21515, and the number of insured vehicles was only 13760. Zero Run said that in the second half of this year, the target order is 56,200 units, the planned sales volume in the second half of the year is 48,000 units, and the second half of the year is planned to deliver 45,400 units.
In the face of industry transformation and the rapid growth of doubling the production and sales of new energy vehicles at present, China's new and large new and old automobile companies have put forward "small goals" for 2025.
The size of China's auto market in 2025
According to official announcements and media reports, the 14th Five-Year Plan goal of Chinese auto companies can be described as a high progress.
The target of the above 16 companies is to have a total of 44.95 million vehicles by 2025.
Other auto companies that have not yet been announced, such as BAIC Group, Jiangqi Group, Jiangling Group, Xiaokang Group, Weilai Automobile, Yutong Group, Jinlong Group, Dayun Group, Ankai Bus, Zhongtong Bus, CRRC Times and Tesla, Baoneng Group, WM Motor, Skyworth Automobile, Tianji Automobile, FF, Gaohe Automobile, Aiways Automobile, Yundu Automobile, Southeast Automobile, Flying Saucer Automobile and many more car companies.
At the same time, with the normalization of low-speed electric vehicles and the emergence of new new car-making forces such as Xiaomi, Apple, Didi, OPPO and Huawei, and the electrification of multinational companies such as Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Ford, GM, Hyundai, Mazda, Peugeot, Citroen and so on, China's new energy vehicle market will also become a force to be reckoned with.
How big will China's auto market be in 2025?
Ten years ago, in early 2011, Automotive Business Review launched a cover story story, "Asking the Top," inviting industry insiders to predict the peak sales of China's auto market. The highest forecast in the survey results is 70 million vehicles, the reached time point is 2030, the lowest forecast is 25 million vehicles, and the reached time point is 2020.
As of now, China's annual automobile sales record is 28.879 million units in 2017, which has surpassed the pessimists in the forecast of "Asking the Top". Later, in 2018-2020, sales were 25.311 million units in 2020, basically returning to 24.598 million units in 2015, five years ago. But with the strong recovery in 2021, what height the Chinese auto market can reach has once again become a topic of concern for some people.
Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and secretary general of the China Automobile Association, said at the "2021 China Auto Market Development Forecast Summit" that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's automotive industry will experience a round of transformation and upgrading, "in 2021, China's auto market will show a slow growth trend, the next five years the auto market will also grow steadily, and car sales are expected to reach 30 million in 2025.".
Professor Zhao Fuquan, dean of the Academy of Automotive Industry and Technology Strategy at Tsinghua University, believes that by 2025, everyone predicts that China's automobile production and sales can reach 30 million, 25 million in 2020, and even 32 million in the next 5 years.
In the "Ask the Top" survey 10 years ago, it was believed that the corresponding sales volume that reached the peak of sales in 2025 was 30 million to 35 million vehicles.
Past five-year plans
Review the sales targets and achievement rates of some car companies in the 13th Five-Year Plan.
According to public media reports and official releases, although most of the central enterprises, local state-owned enterprises or private automobile companies in the 13th Five-Year Plan and 2020 have achieved the revised and relatively satisfactory goals, none of them have completed the small goals released 5 years ago.
For example, as early as 2010, some car companies proposed the goal of producing 2 million vehicles and selling 1.8 million vehicles by 2015;
The actual result is that after 10 years of efforts in the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plans, only a million vehicles have been barely maintained.
Another car company proposed 5 years ago to achieve an annual production and sales target of 2 million vehicles by 2020, entering the top ten global auto companies. As a result, in the past five years, sales in 2018 alone have reached 1.5 million units.
There is a more magnificent person, Evergrande Automobile officially announced the positioning of Evergrande Automobile and three grand goals at its 2020 annual results conference: to build Hengchi into the world's largest and strongest new energy automobile group; by 2025, production and sales of more than 1 million vehicles, 2035 production and sales of more than 5 million vehicles.
Just five months later, on 10 August, Evergrande announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that it was approaching several potential independent third-party investors to discuss the sale of some of the Company's assets, including but not limited to the sale of some of the interests of the Company's listed subsidiaries, China Evergrande New Energy Automobile Group Co., Ltd. and Evergrande Property Group Co., Ltd.
This means that Evergrande, which plans to produce and sell 1 million vehicles a year in 5 years, has not yet sold a car and has begun to sell its business.
From the perspective of car ownership, China has expanded from 0.16 billion in 2000 to more than 292 million in June 2021, surpassing the previous world record of 278 million in the United States and becoming the world's largest car ownership country.
The latest figures are that in July 2021, automobile production and sales totaled 1.863 million units and 1.864 million units, down 4.1% and 7.5% month-on-month, and 15.5% and 11.9% year-on-year, respectively. From January to July, production and sales totaled 14.440 million units, up 17.2% y/y, and sales totaled 14.756 million units, up 19.3% y/y. The increase continued to fall by 7 and 6.3 percentage points from January to June.
According to retail data released by the Association on August 10, the domestic passenger car market reached 1.5 million units in July, down 6.2% year-on-year. Among them, luxury cars reached 200,000 units, down 18% year-on-year, but an increase of 7% compared with July 2019; the joint venture brand was 670,000 units, down 19% year-on-year.
The reminder of the China Automobile Association is that the complex and changeable domestic and foreign situation will also bring uncertainty, especially the risk of chip supply shortage caused by the rebound of the overseas epidemic situation still exists, and the recurrence of the epidemic in local areas of China will also affect supply and demand to a certain extent, coupled with the continuous high price of raw materials to further increase the cost pressure of enterprises, which will also affect the automotive industry. "Combining all aspects of factors, we need to look at the development of the industry cautiously and optimistically."
Scale is the basic element of the automotive industry, but the current market situation has laid many uncertainties for enterprises to choose to expand or steady: after 2017, it has experienced a round of downward exploration, demand has been boosted again after the epidemic, the supply shortage brought by the chip shortage is expected to last for more than a year, and the product switching brought by electrification and intelligence is expected to bring new demand in the next 10 years or even longer.
Under the influence of these complex factors, how do you view the 2025 plan formulated by the car companies in Wenzhong? Welcome to leave a message to discuss.