In the past January, egg prices out of a wave of vigorous roller coaster market, the first half of the month egg prices soared, the average price of eggs in the main production areas from 4 yuan / kg quickly exceeded 5 yuan / kg, the highest reached 5.3 yuan / kg, half a month of cumulative increase of more than 30%. The highest price of eggs in the terminal market generally exceeded 6 yuan a catty, and some areas even exceeded 7 yuan / catty at one time, and the rapid rise in short-term egg prices caused heated discussions, which also attracted the attention of relevant departments. In the second half of January, egg prices fell rapidly, and there was even a 5-cent drop in a day in some areas, and by the end of January, egg prices fell back to 4 yuan / catty, and the crazy rally in the first half of the month had all been erased.
Taking the wholesale price of eggs in the Great Ocean Road wholesale market in Beijing as an example, the price was 7.78 yuan / kg in early January, the highest price reached 11.15 yuan / kg on January 15, an increase of 43.3%, and by January 31, the egg price fell back to 7.7 yuan / kg, and the egg has returned to the 3 yuan era.
Data source: The Ministry of Commerce focuses on monitoring 100 large-scale agricultural product wholesale markets across the country
Entering February, egg prices are still continuing to fall, on February 2, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas of the country has fallen back to 3.66 yuan / catty, the price of eggs in the production area has broken 4, and the local has been lower than 3.5 yuan / catty, and the egg price in the week before the Spring Festival last year is almost the same.
Looking back at the previous crazy rise in egg prices, mainly driven by public health events, the epidemic situation in some of the main egg-producing areas in Hebei and other parts of the north has led to the obstruction of egg external adjustment in the production areas, short-term supply tightening, and based on the uncertainty of the future market, traders, food companies, supermarkets, e-commerce platforms and consumers' demand for hoarding goods has risen, which has further led to a shortage of egg supply and pushed up the price of eggs. But since then, with the control of the epidemic, logistics have resumed, and egg stocks in the production area have been released rapidly, how the price of eggs has risen, how it has fallen, and it may fall further.
The egg price returned to the 3 yuan era, which also shows that the supply of eggs at this stage is still abundant. Although the production capacity of the layer hen industry in 2020 has been more obviously dematerialized, the egg hen inventory is still relatively high, and the recent strong rise in this wave has also changed the market's view of the future market, and the industry's motivation to continue to reduce production capacity has weakened.
According to the data recently released by the Bureau of Statistics, in 2020, the national poultry production will grow steadily, and the output of poultry meat and eggs will reach a new high. Among them, the output of poultry eggs was 34.68 million tons, an increase of 4.8% over the previous year; the output of poultry meat was 23.61 million tons, an increase of 5.5% over the previous year. At the end of 2020, the national poultry inventory was 6.78 billion, an increase of 260 million over the end of the previous year, an increase of 4.0%. Pork production in 2020 was 41.13 million tons, down 3.3% from the previous year and 23.9% from 2018.
Compared with pork production, China's poultry egg production has increased significantly in recent years, especially in the past 5 years. Judging from the situation in previous years, most of China's poultry egg production is about 55%-60% of pork production, but in 2019 and 2020, due to the sharp decline in pork production and the accelerated growth of poultry egg production, poultry egg production has reached 77.8% and 84.3% of pork production.
In the first half of 2020, egg prices continued to be sluggish, mainly affected by production capacity pressure, in 2021, with the recovery of pork production, pork prices fell, the substitution effect weakened, poultry eggs, poultry meat production capacity relatively overcapacity pressure or continue to highlight, egg price trends will continue to be under pressure, it is not easy to rise, 5, 6 yuan a pound of egg prices short-term or difficult to reproduce, but the risk of egg prices breaking 3 after the holiday still exists.