【Introduction】In China, the annual pork consumption reached about 55 million tons, by the 2018 non-plague into China, coinciding with the domestic pig cycle into the downward range, the market pig production capacity fell sharply, last year's average annual pork production also fell to 41.13 million tons, pork production capacity is obviously insufficient, domestic pig prices are also hovering at a high level, the market pork price is also generally sideways 25 ~ 35 yuan / kg!
At the beginning of this year, pork prices are still sideways high, the market pork price before the Spring Festival is also hovering at 28 ~ 35 yuan / kg, the high level of pork prices sideways, but also limits the enthusiasm of pork consumption in the peak season, the market pork demand is obviously less predicted, however, due to the Spring Festival downstream market pork vendors to increase the price sentiment, pork prices are not obvious!
With the decline in domestic pig prices, the market pork prices frequently bottomed out, into October, the domestic north and south regions, pork prices generally fell into the "single digits", in Hunan and Henan and other places, many supermarket activity prices, pork even dropped to 5 ~ 6 yuan / jin, and in the northeast and north China, rural bazaars, pork prices also fell to about 7 yuan / kg! In the author's hometown, Shandong Lu southwest region, the end of the National Day holiday, the price of pork in the rural market fell to 8 yuan / kg, by the price of pork fell below the level of the normal year, superimposed, the domestic temperature has been lower, the market pork "compensatory" consumption is prominent, in North China and northeast China, many consumers take advantage of the pork cheap, filled with a lot of sausages! For example, in the author's hometown, neighbors, in recent days are in the sausage, some villagers at one time to fill more than 40 pounds of pork, villagers sighed "pork is cheap, eat more, or the price will increase!" ”
Indeed, in many villagers filled the sausage not long ago, these days, the price of pork "rose to the sky", the market rose in many places up to 3 ~ 4 yuan / catty! For example, in the author's hometown, before the pork was cheap 7 to 8 yuan / catty, and the price of pork generally rose to 10.9 yuan / catty in the past two days, the meat price increased significantly, is pork 30 yuan going to make a comeback?
According to industry analysts, this round of pork prices rose sharply, the root cause is that the domestic market pork prices oversold rebound, on October 6, the domestic pig price fell to 10.29 yuan / kg, and the current pig price rose to 13.75 yuan / kg, pig prices rose by 33.6% in stages, in just a few days, the gross pig 1 kg rose by 3.46 yuan, the pig price rose to the sky, is bound to aggravate the increase in domestic pork prices!
From the Beijing Xinfadi wholesale market to understand, on October 5, the wholesale market, the fat white strip pig transaction price fell to 5.25 yuan / jin, supported by the continuous rise in pig prices, as of October 18, the wholesale market white strip pig price rose to 8.75 yuan / kg, in just half a month, the price of white strip pig rose by 3.5 yuan / kg!
The sharp rise in pork prices has also made consumers worry that pork 30 yuan / catty will make a comeback! However, I personally believe that although the recent rebound in pork prices is obvious, pork 30 yuan / kg has long become history, and perhaps the next 3 to 5 years will not appear!
On the one hand, due to the excessive decline in market pig prices, the market has entered the repair stage, with the arrival of the pork consumption season, superposition, the temperature in the domestic north and south regions has fallen, the risk of pig farm disease has weakened, the mood of farmers to rise is high, the pig supply has been reduced and the number of pigs has increased, therefore, pig prices are expected to rise, which will also promote the domestic market pork prices to continue to rebound!
On the other hand, the pig price increase space is limited, and the pork price increase has a "ceiling"! Entering the 4th quarter, boosted by pork compensatory consumption, pig price shock strengthened, the average price of the barn or will rise to 16 ~ 17 yuan / kg, pig breeding gradually "from loss to profit", pig prices continue to climb the basis weakened, by the fourth quarter of the inventory of frozen meat concentrated out of the warehouse, superimposed, pig inertia out of the barn increased, pig price rise space is insufficient, and for the domestic market pork prices, pork prices climbed to 15 yuan / kg, the market has reached a stage of "ceiling", therefore, pork prices will not rush up 30 yuan / kg!
Pork prices "rose to the sky", more places rose 3 to 4 yuan, 30 yuan pork to make a comeback? What do you think about this? The above is the author's personal opinion!