The suppression named 3700

Ge Hui practice number S0880619040017

Since the beginning of this year, the three major indexes have stumbled along the way, falling from the high point of the New Year before, and seeing that 2021 is coming to an end, these three have slowly touched the high point of the beginning of the year. So, what has been the year?

At the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index returned to 3700 points, when everyone expected it, the signs of the bull market began to appear, and the god-making movement in the whole market was popular, but all the fund managers who were a little famous, the first new fund was like a god. But this never expected that the year was not over, and then the "dusk of the gods", the supervision was deliberately scattered, and all the gods lying together in the "Jiuchi Medicinal Forest" were all over.

Subsequently, the stage high of the Shanghai Composite Index stopped at 3731.69, under the wheel of style rotation, the cycle industry took over the heavy responsibility of pulling the market in July, "carbon neutral" policy support, with steel, nonferrous metals, coal as the core of the cycle industry once again drove the market to 3700 points approaching, with the fourth quarter of the energy consumption dual control policy menacing, in mid-September, the cycle failed to respond to everyone's expectations, resulting in the suppression of 3700 points has not been broken.

Fortunately, the amplitude of the adjustment of this round of index is not deep, and the later things do not need to be said more, we all know that the new energy has once again taken over the baton handed by the old predecessors of the cycle, but the general posture of this baton is not right, just one month, the new energy has eaten a forced pocket at the high point of the early stage, and handed over the relay in the hand again.

This round of index back to 3700, securities companies and infrastructure these two sectors can be described as indispensable, with the Central Economic Work Conference held in advance, for next year's economy for forward-looking deployment, it can be said that this round of securities companies and infrastructure dance together is obviously the spring restless early performance.

Why brokers and infrastructure? At the Central Economic Work Conference, it was proposed that the registration system will be fully implemented next year, and at present, China's capital market registration system has been tried for a long time on the science and technology innovation board and the ChiNext board, and at present, the effect is stable.

Under the registration system, it is equivalent to handing over the pricing power of new shares to securities companies, and the requirements for investors are also on a higher level, for the new, the future income is afraid that it will be very different from before, from yesterday's BeiGene listing on the break can be seen that the market's concerns about new stocks have existed, and under the future full registration system, the probability of the break of new shares will become the norm.

Of course, we should also see the good side, from the reports of listed securities companies in recent years, the scale of the sponsorship business of the head securities companies is also more and more concentrated to the head, and the experience advantages of the issuance business will also attract more coveted by those who are ready to register and list.

In addition, the Central Economic Work Conference requires moderately advanced infrastructure investment, and it must be seen that China's economic development is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and expected weakening, and the external environment is becoming more complex and severe and uncertain. In order to cope with the next economic downturn, infrastructure is needed to pull the internal cycle open.

The construction index fell by as much as 17 percent in the past three months, and corporate valuations and institutional allocations hit new lows in recent years. At present, the policy is beginning to be clearer and more active, and the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference require that infrastructure investment be moderately advanced next year.

On the one hand, active fiscal and monetary policies will promote the recovery of infrastructure investment, the share of leading companies will increase beyond the industry growth, and the decline in raw material prices will increase profitability. Then there will be an increase in economic and employment pressure in the first half of next year, and there is still a possibility of further RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in the follow-up of the policy.

Therefore, whether the current 3700 points can be broken, securities companies and infrastructure are the key directions that are more worthy of everyone's attention at the micro level, and these two directions are important drivers. Without breaking, these two directions can also become important supports. As for who will pick up the baton next, it doesn't matter for now.

Disclaimer: The market is risky and investments need to be cautious. The content of this information is for reference only, does not constitute an opinion on the trading of the securities described, should not be used as the only reference factor for investment decisions, investors need to make investment decisions independently and independently bear investment risks.

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