In recent days, the property market has successively delivered "positive" news, and real estate agents have a scene of frying pans.
A few days ago, "The Paper" published an article "Media: The property market welcomes two major benefits a day, and it is time for the just-needed family to shoot?" the article once again reaffirms the recent shift in the basic attitude of the central bank and the top management towards real estate.
Revisiting together, the big change: 2 messages in 1 day, the house or back to the scene of 7 years ago? Know in advance.
First, after a few months, the central bank once again "opened the floodgates and released water". According to the news published on the central bank's website, starting from December 15, 2021, the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions will be reduced by 0.5 percentage points again. According to calculations, a total of 1.2 trillion yuan of funds were released to the market. Such a large amount, we use "large release of water" to describe it is not exaggerated at all.
Second, an important meeting mentioned the basic tone of real estate in the future, requiring "promoting the construction of affordable housing, supporting reasonable housing demand, and promoting a virtuous circle." According to the analysis of real estate experts, this meeting mainly conveyed three aspects of information: guaranteeing the supply of housing, supporting reasonable housing demand, and promoting a virtuous circle. It can be said that these three aspects are the highlight of the future development of the property market.
Why do many people say: with the arrival of the 2 "new signals" in the property market, the house may return to the scene of 2014? The main reason is that the current housing market background and policies are highly similar to those of 2014.
First, the dismal year of 2014. At the beginning of the year, the previous year's bland market situation continued, with only 49,453 sets of trading in January, and only more than 30,000 sets in February due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday. With the arrival of gold three silver four, many people predicted that there will be a wave of sales boom, but what is disappointing is that the wish has been disappointed, with the tightening of the mortgage policy, the gold three silver four has failed again, and the total transaction is less than 60,000 sets. From June to October in the second half of the year, the trading volume was still within 50,000 sets, and it began to rise in November, reaching 60,000 sets. The transaction volume of 15 key cities in December was 74,043 units.
As you can see from the data above. The housing market 7 years ago, can only use 2 words to describe "cold", the whole year showed a continuous sluggish sales status.
Among the 15 key cities, the transaction volume increased by only 85% year-on-year in Xi'an, the other 14 cities have been frustrated and declined, Nanjing has the largest decline, down 41%, followed by Beijing, Qingdao, Shenzhen, the decline reached 34%, 32% and 30% respectively, the decline in key cities is so much, other second- and third-tier cities are of course no exception, Suzhou, Chengdu, Tianjin and other more than 6 cities fell by 20%-30%, and the decline in Jinan also reached 7%.
Why did the property market perform so badly 7 years ago? In the final analysis, the reason is that the bank's mortgage policy has begun to tighten, on the one hand, the bank has increased the interest rate of the housing loan, on the other hand, it has begun to significantly shrink the proportion and amount of the mortgage, which has led to many people wanting to buy a house, but the mortgage interest rate is high, the loan can not be approved, resulting in the inability to buy a house.
Second, the cold year of 2021. The reason why many people say that 2021 is similar to 2014 is that the real estate in these two years has entered a period of slow sales and growth is extremely weak. From 2020 to 2021, the central bank has increased its weight twice and launched the "3+2" housing market capital restriction strategy, requiring financial institutions to further reduce the loan funding restrictions on real estate developers and individual home buyers, at the same time, mortgage interest rates began to rise rapidly.
This is very similar to 7 years ago.
At the same time, the current situation of property sales is also very close, new houses are difficult to change hands, and the number of second-hand house listings is beginning to increase day by day. According to incomplete statistics, since 2021, the number of second-hand housing listings in more than 12 cities has returned to the high level of 4 years ago, and the number of second-hand housing listings in some cities has reached the high level of 7 years ago. Zhengzhou, Shijiazhuang, Chengdu, Nanjing, Nanchang, Wuhan and other cities have up to 100,000 second-hand housing listings.
Another aspect of the recent market similar to 7 years ago is that with the arrival of the cold period, all aspects of the policy are increasingly relaxed, and even began to build a platform for the housing market and send blood. And then ushered in a wave of rapid rise.
Around 2014, real estate after a long period of "sales stagnation" impact, new housing inventory accumulation, developers have appeared in the capital turnover is not good, and even many housing enterprises due to shortage of funds and bankruptcy; the number of second-hand housing listings is a record high.
In order to solve this problem, a series of positive "bailouts" have officially begun. Typical examples include reducing the down payment ratio, discounting mortgage loan interest rates, and releasing funds from urban demolitions.
With the blessing of the two major measures of the property market to destock + shed reform, since 2015, the real estate has been in the east wind, and the sales price of real estate has also increased day by day.
So, does the "tail-wagging + central bank RRR cut + bank interest rate cut" of the property market at the end of 2021 mean repeating the mistakes of 6-7 years ago, and the housing market will take off again from 2022? The answer given by Wenjun is no. 3 factors to see:
1. "Strictly prevent funds from entering the property market in violation of regulations" This is the basic requirement that has not changed.
Guo Shuqing of the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has repeatedly said that real estate has become the biggest gray rhinoceros affecting the financial industry. Although it seems a bit ridiculous, the meaning expressed is very profound. Guo Shuqing suggested that it is necessary to prevent excessive financialization of real estate and avoid risks in the financial industry due to real estate. From 2020 to 2021, strictly prevent funds from entering the property market in violation of the law, and this string has always been tightened. At the same time, we can clearly see that the funds released by the RRR reduction refer to the real industry and seem to have no connection with the housing market.
2. After international inflation, various countries have begun to raise interest rates.
From 2020 to the first half of 2021, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and other major countries have all begun to cut interest rates + print money stimulus program, the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, South Korea, France without exception, funds rolled in, the housing market more than 89% of the price increase. In order to stop excessive inflation, the world has launched a new wave of interest rate hikes.
In the face of the international wave of "interest rate cuts and interest rate hikes", China's housing market is cold on the one hand, and heat on the other hand, which is the meaning of the topic of housing and not speculation.
3, under the sweep of property taxes, the confidence of buying a house has changed.
Finance Minister Liu Kun has long said that at the end of 2021, the real estate tax or start the pilot, sure enough, this year's real estate tax has officially arrived, and it is expected that the pilot will be fully opened after 5 years. Although the impact of property taxes on just demand is not large, it is a real cost increase for speculators. Without the support of hoarders, in the face of the situation of excess real estate, how to maintain high prices?
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