Writer / Li Xiaofei Knife, Hua Na Na & Hu Yi Dao
military.com, the semi-official "military news" website of the United States, recently published a long article, mainly an interview with some high-level figures in the US military and political circles, and made some predictions on the possible approach to military operations against Taiwan Chinese mainland that the outside world is most concerned about.
Unlike the traditional belief that "the PLA ends the fight within 24 hours", Jack Reed, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee of the United States Congress, believes that there may not be a Normandy-style landing operation in the Taiwan Strait.
He believes that the PLA is more likely to take so-called "gray zone warfare" in the Taiwan Strait.
So, what is a "gray zone war"? Are these predictions by U.S. politicians reliable?
01
The article published on the "Military News" website on the 13th said that Reid believes that Chinese mainland may not adopt the traditional landing operation method, because the combat mobilization may take several months, which gives "us" time to either take action or prepare for negotiations.
Reid claimed that Chinese mainland could adopt the "gray zone warfare" approach that Russia adopted in the 2014 Crimea incident, starting with tactics below the threshold of traditional warfare, such as certain types of cyber warfare, including "cyber operations, infiltration, rapid projection of power through the air."
In March 2014, Crimea "broke away from Ukraine and entered Russia" through a referendum, and Western countries believed that Russia used means including information warfare, cyber warfare, special forces, etc. to create a crisis and forcibly incorporated Crimea into Russia.
Why do the US media and military and political elites continue to play up the "PLA attack on Taiwan"?
A big reason is that over the past 20 years, U.S. forces have faced mainly terrorist militants, as well as weaker countries such as Libya or Syria, and are not prepared to fight their peers.
Although the Biden administration still adopts a policy of "strategic ambiguity" on the Taiwan Strait issue, and does not say whether it will send troops to aid Taiwan in the event of war in the Taiwan Strait, the US military and political elite is making positive preparations, hoping to deter Chinese mainland and abandon the means of non-peaceful reunification.
Judging from the recent statements thrown out by some US lawmakers, media and think tanks, they generally believe that the PLA is strengthening its drills in this regard, and the battle may start at some inconspicuous moment.
They argue that the PLA's cyber warfare operations could be the first to paralyze some of Taiwan's critical power and information equipment, including vital facilities such as radar. Then, through infiltration and air passage, a part of the personnel were sent to land on the island first.
After that, the PLA may launch different battle plans prepared according to the needs of the battlefield at that time.
To put it bluntly, it means to implement different combat plans according to whether the US military or other countries' armed forces are involved, the degree of resistance of the Taiwan military, and so on. Whether to mainly use long-range precision strike weapons, to carry out "point and hole" strikes, or to use a full-line siege, multi-point flowering method, and so on.
What is common, though, is that the PLA will eventually take a landing operation to seize control.
In October, Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party confirmed in an interview with CNN that a small number of U.S. troops were training Taiwanese troops on the island.
However, the Military News article notes that U.S. Defense Secretary Austin avoided questions about the U.S. military presence in a recent statement, instead talking in general terms about how the U.S. would "find more ways to help Taiwan."
On the other hand, there are also some voices in the United States that the US military is not ready for war. For example, U.S. expert on Taiwan issues Glasley has publicly stated that the U.S. side does not have enough military resources in the region to "protect Taiwan from all-out attacks by the mainland."
Some other senior U.S. military figures believe that Washington's efforts on the island of Taiwan are certainly not enough, but "Taiwan's own defenses also need to be strengthened, especially through arms sales."
Obviously, arms sales are the focus.
Army Secretary Kristen Worms said the DPP government has always preferred to buy "shiny goods" such as fighter jets rather than addressing more pressing needs and making it "less likely" for the PLA to swallow" the island, so "the United States needs Taiwan to invest in mines, anti-ship missiles and coastal defense and really prepare their troops." ”
02
Recently, the Taiwan side has been desperately fighting chicken blood.
Two days ago, Taiwan's "Ministry of National Defense" issued a report in which it carefully analyzed the three steps taken by the PLA to "attack Taiwan" and put forward three "weaknesses" of the PLA.
The three steps include:
Encirclement: The Plaster's fleet assembled in the western Pacific To encircle and blockade the island of Taiwan.
Bombing: The Plaster Will Adopt "Joint Fire Strike," in which the Rocket Force and the Air Force launch missiles to bomb Taiwan's air defense bases, radar stations, and command posts, and the strategic support forces will implement electromagnetic pressure and paralyze the main combat units and key facilities of the Taiwan Army's army, navy, and air force.
Landing on the island: Landing on various beaches, military bases and key fortresses on the main island of Taiwan, striving to make a quick decision and "conquering Taiwan before external forces intervene."
At the same time, the report also calls out the PLA's three major "weaknesses," implying that the people of Taiwan "don't panic."
The "three weaknesses" are:
Insufficient means of transport - it is impossible to send all troops to Taiwan at once, and the risk of multi-echelon landing is high, because the Taiwan military is stuck in ports and airports;
Logistical supplies cannot keep up -- the Taiwan military can "use the advantages of the strait graben and give play to the benefits of joint interception operations, which will lead to the interruption of the communist army's supplies and seriously reduce the combat effectiveness and combat continuity of the landing forces."
Fighting on multiple fronts at the same time -- not only to prevent the Intervention of the United States and Japan, but also to be on alert in india, Vietnam, the Spratly Islands and other areas, making it difficult to concentrate on "attacking Taiwan."
In addition to the official report, the voice of self-courage on the island has not been interrupted.
For example, on December 6, Taiwan's "former army commander" Hu Zhenpu put forward the so-called "balance of terror." He said on a program that if the People's Liberation Army launches a "plan to seize the island" against Taiping Island, "there are also defensive weapons on the island at present... I guess it's not that easy. ”
He then added that the Taiwan military has a "plan to defend Xinjiang," saying, "If you hit me on Taiping Island, I can also hit you on Yongxing Island, and there is a balance of terror against each other... We are confident that we can cope with this crisis. ”
These are typical bluffs.
"If we really talk about recovering Taiwan, we have a wide variety of ways and plans," Fu Qianxian, an air force expert, told The Supplementary Knife, "how to fight is actually likely to exceed all the predictions of Taiwan and the United States." ”
Fu Said: At those military bases in Taiwan, our missiles, rockets, and drones are enough to destroy them, and there is no need for personnel to land and operate, "In terms of unmanned equipment, our advantage is the world's leading."
He told him that in the early stage of the attack, our unmanned equipment can allow the PLA to seize air and sea supremacy in a very short period of time.
In addition, in response to the statement that "there are not enough ships", Fu Qianwei said that after occupying ports or seizing relevant control, our helicopters, transport aircraft and dual-use ships are one of the means of use, in fact, in addition to the relevant warships, other ships can also be requisitioned in wartime.
He said: The PLA has been conducting uninterrupted drills over the years, and these exercises are all based on actual combat as the standard.
"Now we can go to all sides of Taiwan Island, and even from which direction to attack, they are difficult to predict."
Of course, these people who gave Taiwan chicken blood are not unaware of these situations, on the contrary, they are very clear in their hearts.
They know very well that this strength alone cannot resist the Plaster Army, and it is precisely for this reason that the "Taiwan independence" elements have repeatedly exaggerated it in the hope of further setting off the atmosphere of hostility to the mainland on the island, and at the same time they are telling it to American fathers -- come and help me.
In fact, on the day of reunification, it is likely that the fastest runners will be the group of people who are clamoring the most today.
03
A few days ago, Qiu Guozheng, head of Taiwan's defense department, once again issued a warning on the tense situation in the Taiwan Strait, claiming that the situation in the Taiwan Strait has been very severe recently, and that "moreover, there are hostile situations in all directions of Taiwan's north, central, south, and east, so if war breaks out, Taiwan will be a battlefield everywhere."
In early October this year, Qiu Guozheng said that the current cross-strait situation was the "most severe moment" in his 40 years since he joined the army. He believes that "the People's Liberation Army already has the ability to commit Crimes against Taiwan, but the cost it needs to pay is relatively high." By 2025, the PLA's operational costs will be even lower and it will have the ability to attack Taiwan in an all-round way.
Qiu Guozheng claimed that "taiwan's defense operations will face major challenges at that time."
While the United States and Taiwan are making noise, our People's Liberation Army is training step by step.
Recently, the first amphibious assault ship of the People's Liberation Army Type 075, the Hainan, conducted a drill in the South China Sea together with the Type 071 integrated landing ship Kunlun Mountain, which attracted a lot of attention from the outside world.
It is reported that as a "year-end examination", the first amphibious assault ship of the Type 075, the "Hainan", has rehearsed projects such as multidimensional landings by sea, land and air. Theoretically, the Type 075 amphibious assault ship with a displacement of more than 30,000 tons provided the PLA with the first ship with a truly multi-dimensional and three-dimensional landing capability.
According to previous reports, the hangar of the "Hainan" can accommodate more than 30 helicopters in total, such as the Wuzhi-10, Zhi-8, Zhi-9 anti-submarine, Z-18, and Z-20; the docking cabin can accommodate 35 amphibious assault vehicles or 10 main battle tanks, 20 infantry fighting vehicles, 2 to 4 air cushion landing craft, which can carry more than 1200 troops; the straight-through deck has 6 shipboard helicopter take-off and landing points, and can also take off and land unmanned aerial vehicles.
Powerful capabilities can provide better support for large-scale landings and offensive operations. Because of this, some people in the bay "took a seat" and believed that the Type 075 ship would pose a great threat to the Taiwan military. So, those green frogs were a little flustered.
This is also the first time that the "Hainan" has participated in the "year-end examination" comprehensive exercise since it was officially commissioned in April this year.
The Type 075 amphibious assault ship has been known as a "weapon to attack Taiwan" since its exposure, and since the start of construction in 2018, the PLA Navy has launched three ships, in addition to the first "Hainan" has been listed in the southern theater of the PLA on April 23 this year, the second is rumored to be about to enlist, and the third will be conducted in the near future for sea trials.
Therefore, no matter how many predictions and simulations the United States and Taiwan make, no matter what collusion there is between them, "resisting reunification with force and a dead end" has never been an empty phrase.
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