The Golden State Warriors beat the New York Knicks 105-96 on the road, and Stephen Curry scored 22 points on 5-of-14 three-point range. As a result, Curry surpassed Ray Allen in 2,977 career three-pointers and rose to the first place in history. ESPN data expert Kevin Pelton wrote an article predicting how many three-pointers Curry will eventually shoot in his career.
Curry predicted nearly 4,500 career three-pointers:
Curry is not showing any signs of recession at the moment, with the 33-year-old averaging career-highs in three-point shooting (5.4) and three-pointers (13.4) per game this season. Curry should build a bigger advantage after surpassing Ray Allen, who peaked at around 30 with three-pointers from Allen and Reggie Miller, but Curry kept climbing on three-pointers after he was 30.
In the last two seasons, Curry's average of three-point shots per game and the number of three-point shots per game are even more exaggerated than in their peak seasons. In the 2020-21 season, Curry shot 337 three-pointers in just 63 games. Ray Allen actually reached the end of his career when he broke the Miller record, but now Curry is still the absolute core of the Warriors.
Predicting curry's biggest variable in the total number of three-pointers is his health, and if it weren't for the 2019-2020 season with only 5 games due to injury, Curry could have become the league's all-time three-point king a year ago.
Another key factor is how long Curry wants to play, and if Curry is willing to back down to role players, he can save energy and continue his three-point performance, just as Ray Allen can play until he is 39 and Reggie Miller can play until he is 40. If Curry stays healthy, he can easily hit until he's 40.
Conservatively speaking, Curry can play five more seasons before retiring at the age of 39 in 2027, during which he can play 80 percent of the Warriors. In this case, Curry could also shoot 1450 three-pointers, including the remaining 201 this season, in terms of Perton's SCHOENE prediction system, which would be 50 percent more than Ray Allen's total three-pointers (2977). Of course, when Curry retired, Ray Allen's second place in history was not guaranteed.
Curry's Challenger:
Curry's biggest challenger is James Harden, who (2509 three-pointers) is not too far behind Curry. Harden has two advantages, the first is 17 months younger than Curry, and the second is attendance, not missing too many games due to injury. Harden currently hits more 2509 three-pointers than Curry in his age group (2495 three-pointers). Harden is likely to overtake Reggie Miller during the All-Star period, and surpassing Ray Allen is also a matter of sooner or later.
That doesn't mean Harden will eventually catch up with Curry, who has slowed down since joining the Brooklyn Nets, who have averaged just 2.6 three-pointers on the field during that time. In addition, the persistence of Harden's health is unlikely to last long, as he is now affected by hamstring injuries.
If harden had been predicted to be 39 years old and play 85 percent of the game, he would still have 800 fewer career three-point shots than Curry.
After Curry and Harden, the Trail Blazers' Lillard is third among active players, and the 31-year-old Coach Lee has already ranked tenth in history for three points. Lillard's challenge is that he is older than Curry and Harden, and that his three-point shooting percentage has slipped this season and lacks stability. Lillard is likely to finish his career with the third-highest total of three-pointers in history.
Among the younger generation of players, Trae Young and Doncic are excellent in three-pointers, Trae Young is known as Curry's successor, Young hit 2.5 three-pointers on the three-point court in the first four years of his career, and Doncic averaged 2.7 three-pointers per game in the first four seasons, but they are all in a three-point era, which is conducive to projection. More young players are improving their three-point ability today, with Edwards shooting 171 three-pointers in his rookie season alone last year, and "three-goal" Lamelo Ball shooting nearly 40 percent from three-point range this season.
It's a three-point shooting era, but as long as Curry can stay fit, he has a chance to raise the threshold high enough.