In the speculation Chinese mainland when to "reunify" Taiwan by force, Taiwan's "Ministry of National Defense" recently announced its research and judgment, holding that the Platon's Liberation Army will "attack Taiwan by force" in 2025, divided into three stages: First, in the name of exercises, the three armed forces will be assembled on the southeast coast, and the media will publicize it, causing panic within Taiwan. Next, the PLA Navy fleet assembled in the western Pacific, causing a pinch and siege of Taiwan and preventing foreign military intervention. After that, the PLA's rocket force and air force launched missiles to attack Taiwan's air defense positions, radar stations, and command posts, and the PLA will also destroy and paralyze Taiwan's main combat units and key facilities. In the case that the PLA has seized air and sea supremacy, it will launch amphibious landing operations, strive to make a quick decision, and conquer Taiwan before "external forces intervene."
According to Taiwan's judgment and description, as long as the People's Liberation Army prevents "foreign troops from rushing to help," it can completely win Taiwan in a quick battle. This "pessimistic judgment" of the Taiwan military is to remind and plead with the United States not to be stopped by the communist army from providing military support to Taiwan, otherwise "Taiwan will die." Taiwan's fear and anxiety is justified, because the earlier report released by the US Department of Defense is completely different from the judgment of Taiwan's "Department of Defense", and the American judgment is that the People's Liberation Army will "force reunification by force" when the army is founded in 2027, and actions include amphibious landings, seizure of outer islands, long-term air and sea blockades, and attacks on Taiwan's facilities through special forces or hackers, and finally force Taiwan to agree to reunification.
In Taiwan's view, the United States has made such a judgment that it has no intention of sending troops to participate in the war to defend Taiwan at that time, and has no intention of going to war for Taiwan and Chinese mainland. In fact, the Taiwan authorities' worries are correct; although the United States has been fighting fiercely with Taiwan in US-Taiwan relations and in the expansion of taiwan assistance in international space over the past few years, vigorously supporting and selling weapons to support Taiwan in "resisting China by force" and "seeking independence by force," the United States has never made it clear whether the United States will send troops to participate in the war and directly engage in a major confrontation with the mainland at the most critical and critical time.
In fact, of course, the United States has considered this issue, and it is well thought out, and the results of various "US military participation in war" and "sand table operations" are not known how many times they have been formulated and simulated, and the United States must know that the odds of winning are very small and not worth it at all, so it has been playing with "vague strategy."
This article was originally published in Hong Kong's "Oriental Daily", the original title of "Dragon Yin Tiger Roar: Taiwan Anxiety, Old America Is Not In a Hurry".