The Surging News reporter Peng Yanqiu
According to the "National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System" monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, this week (December 3, 2021 - December 10, 2021) the "Agricultural Products Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 128.09, down 1.30 points from last week and up 8.15 points from the same period last year.
Pork, lamb, beef, eggs and white chicken, the livestock and poultry products monitored this week, changed between -1.3 and 1.4 percent compared to last week.
Wholesale pork prices rose 0.4% month-on-month (down 39.1% year-on-year) this week, up the eighth consecutive week.
From the perspective of seasonal consumption of pork, the seasonal characteristics of Pig prices in China are more obvious, in addition to some special years due to the epidemic or policies caused by the price trend of the year is more "abnormal", pig price data roughly shows the characteristics of higher and lower fluctuations in the middle, often around November Pig prices began to further rise and reached a high point at the end of the year.
In addition to seasonal impacts, pig price fluctuations are also closely related to the supply side. From the perspective of supply, according to the data of pig product information of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the number of fertile sows in September 2021 was 44.59 million heads, equivalent to 108.8% of the normal ownership, down 2.3% month-on-month and up 16.7% year-on-year; at the end of October, the number of fertile sows was 43.48 million, equivalent to 106% of the normal ownership, down 2.5% month-on-month, up 6.6% year-on-year, still higher than the 41 million heads recommended by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. However, affected by the de-capacity of this year, the supply pressure in the third and fourth quarters has decreased relatively, and at the same time, it has gradually entered the peak season of demand at the end of the year, and the relationship between supply and demand has driven prices to show a certain rebound.
"Although there was a sharp decline in pig prices in the first half of the year, and there has been a certain rebound in the near future, we believe that the pullback in production capacity has just begun, and this round of pig cycle will hover at the bottom for a while." According to the company's own pig feed business, since April, the monthly sales growth rate of front-end materials (that is, sow feed, piglet feed) has fluctuated between plus and minus 5%, reflecting that the total number of sows and piglets has stabilized and has not continued to increase. In terms of the export pig feed business, there was a month-on-month increase of more than 10% in July and August, and only began to decline by 2% in September. It shows that farmers in the market have just begun to enter the rhythm of production reduction, and production capacity has not yet begun to decrease significantly. If the current sow has just begun to reduce production capacity, it is reflected in the decline in the corresponding fat pig output, at least 10 months later, that is, until the second half of next year, it will begin to trend over and return to the upward period of the pig cycle. "New Hope for Feed Leading Enterprises (000876. SZ) relevant person in charge told the surging news reporter.
Zhou Xiaoqiu, chief researcher of Guotai Junan Industrial Service Research Institute, also expressed a similar view, "Due to the 10 to 11-month lag from the reversal of sow production capacity to the reversal of fat pigs, the market expects that fat pigs will not peak until the second quarter of 2022." The market unanimously expects the spot price to bottom out after the Spring Festival, and under the influence of such expectations, the pressure on spot prices will gradually appear after the Spring Festival. Earlier, Zhou Xiaoqiu told the surging news.
The relevant person in charge of the above-mentioned New Hope pointed out that although the general loss of the industry this year is large, after all, the pig price in 2020 is very high, and the operators in the industry who have lasted for many years will generally have better profit accumulation. But for new entrants to the industry, in the past one or two years, more money has been invested, and the production capacity has just been built to catch up with the participants in the downward period and the trough period, and the pressure will be relatively greater. According to the grassroots survey of some securities companies and research institutions, small and medium-sized retail investors have less pressure in this round of pig price trough period, because they may be limited by financial strength in last year's high price period, and there is no excessive additional investment, but simply supplement the sow. The sharp rise in the pig cycle in the past two years is not simply a factor in the price cycle, but superimposed on the impact of the first full-scale outbreak of African swine fever in China. With more than three years of industry-wide experience in preventing and disposing of African swine fever, even if there is another outbreak of non-plague and weak virus epidemic at the beginning of this year, the overall level of prevention of African disease in the industry has been improved, coupled with the fat pig backfraction technology commonly used in the industry in the past two years, at present, it is unlikely that there will be excessive capacity risks like in 2018 and 2019.
Focus on monitoring the prices and changes of livestock and poultry products
Wholesale egg prices continued to fall slightly this week, and since November, egg prices have continued to fall, but increased by 35% year-on-year, and the wholesale price this week is 10.17 yuan / kg.
This week, the aquatic products monitored, grass carp, crucian carp, carp, silver carp, silver carp, large striped fish and yellow croaker, the range of changes was between -1.3 and 3.7% compared with last week.
Focus on monitoring the price of aquatic products and the range of changes
The average price of 19 kinds of vegetables in 286 wholesale markets in 286 production and marketing areas nationwide was 5.12 yuan / kg, down 3.7% from last week and up 37.1% year-on-year.
Among the 19 vegetable prices monitored, the prices of tomatoes, leeks and carrots rose more sharply this week, by 3.4%, 3.2% and 0.2% respectively; the prices of cabbage, cucumbers, spinach, rapeseed and green onions fell significantly from the previous month, with a larger decrease of 9.7%, 9.2%, 8.1%, 7.3% and 7.1% respectively.
Vegetables that rose more sequentially
Vegetables with a large month-on-month decline
The average price of the five fruits monitored this week was 6.54 yuan / kg, down 0.6% from last week and up 11.0% year-on-year.
Focus on monitoring fruit prices and the magnitude of changes
Editor-in-charge: Zheng Jingxin Photo Editor: Shen Ke