Eggs are almost 1 yuan / one, when will the price of "high-fever" eggs come down

China Business Daily (reporter Ma Jiawen / photo) This year's egg prices are "not light" in the off-season, and even reached the highest level of prices in the same period in the past three years. Relevant data show that the current egg price has increased by 27.21% from the lowest point of 3.46 yuan / catty in the year. China Business Daily reporter visited the Beijing market and found that since November, the average price of eggs on the retail end has been almost "1 yuan a piece". Industry analysts said that until the end of this month, the price of eggs may continue to maintain a "break 5" trend.

The price of eggs on the retail side is almost "1 yuan a piece".

Eggs are almost 1 yuan a piece

The upward trend in egg prices this year was somewhat unexpected. According to the data released by commodity analysis agency Zhuo Chuang Information, this year's egg prices reached an annual high of 5.32 yuan / catty on January 18, up 45.75% year-on-year; the second high was 5.17 yuan / catty on October 27, up 55.72% year-on-year. Even if the price of eggs reached the lowest point of the year at 3.46 yuan / catty on March 3 this year, it was up 27.21% from the same period last year and at the highest level in the same period in the past three years. Zhuo Chuang information analyst Wang Xiaoyue told the China Business Daily reporter that on December 3, the average appearance price of eggs in the country was about 4.7 yuan / catty. Although the consumer demand for eggs from November to early December is not too strong, egg prices are still at a normally high level compared to previous years.

China Business Daily reporters visited a number of farmers' markets and supermarkets in Xicheng District and Chaoyang District of Beijing and found that since November, the retail price of eggs has almost reached "1 yuan a piece". Ms. Sui, a citizen, told reporters that on December 3, she spent 10 yuan to buy 10 eggs, while a week ago she spent 12 yuan to buy 10 eggs, "Now eating tomatoes and scrambled eggs feels 'luxury'."

Merchants in a farmers' market in Xicheng District, Beijing, told reporters that the purchase price of eggs has recently been higher than before, and in December, the price of eggs has dropped somewhat compared with before. The merchant heard from the dealer that the supply of eggs in many chicken farms was insufficient, the arrival of the distributor was delayed, and in order to ensure the supply, the dealer also needed to temporarily borrow eggs from other chicken farms.

Wang Xiaoyue told the China Business Daily reporter that from a comprehensive analysis, the higher price of eggs is affected by the low stock of laying hens and the higher cost of raising chickens. As of November, the national stock of laying hens was about 1.172 billion, a year-on-year decline of 6.06%; the feed cost of a single kilogram of eggs was 3.4 yuan, an increase of 3.59% year-on-year.

Insufficient supply superimposes higher feed costs

Currently, the supply of eggs is relatively low. According to Zhuo Chuang information data, in April last year, the number of laying hens in the country reached a high value of 1.37 billion in recent years, and then the overall stock showed a decreasing trend for 18 consecutive months; in October this year, the number of laying hens fell to 1.169 billion, a decrease of 14.67% from the high value in April last year.

"This year, the proportion of reserve laying hens is only about 14%, indicating that the overall confidence of the breeding end is insufficient, and the new production capacity of laying hens in the short term in the future may be very limited." From November to December, the growth rate of laying hens slowed down, and the number of laying hens is expected to decrease slightly in January next year. Therefore, the supply of eggs before the Spring Festival may remain tight. Wang Xiaoyue said.

In addition, the high cost of feed has caused abandonment at the breeding end, or exacerbated the tight supply trend of eggs. According to Zhuo Chuang information data, in November this year, the feed cost of a kilogram of eggs was 3.4 yuan, an increase of 3.59% year-on-year. In the feed, the average monthly price of corn was 2647.95 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.48% year-on-year; the average monthly price of soybean meal (43% protein) was 3416.25 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.74% year-on-year.

Mr. Lian, an egg farmer in Heze, Shandong Province, told China Business Daily that the rise in egg prices could not offset the pressure caused by rising operating costs, and it was not until August this year that the loss of chicken farms improved. "Farmers in the layer industry know that the price of eggs is high during this time, but the cost of feed is also high. The sharp rise and fall in egg prices has worried us, and we hope that the whole market can remain at a stable level. Mr. Lian said.

When will the egg market cool down

Industry insiders believe that egg prices may be difficult to go down before the end of this year. "From December 10 to 15, egg prices may also rise." Wang Xiaoyue said that from the supply side, the number of laying hens in December may remain low. From the demand side, there are relatively many holidays in December, and the promotion activities of major platforms may gradually open. Comprehensive supply and demand relationship, without considering the unexpected factors, it is expected that the domestic egg price will fluctuate upward in December, and the average price in the main production areas will be 4.85-5.2 yuan / catty. In the later period, with the improvement of domestic sales in northern production areas, the price of eggs in some areas may rise to 5.3-5.5 yuan / catty.

Sun Nengji, an egg analyst at the agricultural products division of Shanghai Ganglian E-commerce Co., Ltd., said that from the demand side, the market demand in December is expected to be significantly better than that in November. In December, there are "double 12" e-commerce shopping festivals and Christmas and New Year's Day, on the one hand, it can stimulate online and offline terminal consumption, and the pace of intermediate traders purchasing eggs will also accelerate; on the other hand, the Spring Festival in 2022 is slightly earlier than in previous years, and the production stocking and demand for eggs by noodle food enterprises will also be launched, and market demand will increase. Egg prices are expected to rise in mid-to-late December.

The agricultural product analysis team of Everbright Futures believes that the elimination of layer chickens after the Spring Festival will become an uncertain factor affecting the supply of eggs, and the market needs to pay attention to the impact of layer reduction on egg supply in the future. After the Spring Festival, egg demand will enter the seasonal demand off-season, the demand will most likely decline, and egg prices may show signs of cooling.