Recently, the China (Hainan) Reform and Development Research Institute, the Bank of China, China Daily and the China Public Diplomacy Association jointly hosted the 87th International Forum on China's Reform on "Building a New Development Pattern for China and the World". Experts and scholars from relevant ministries and commissions of the state and more than 20 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government), as well as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Cambodia, Malaysia, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Belgium, Switzerland, Norway and other countries and international organizations discussed topics such as the global economic and financial situation, energy crisis, debt crisis, supply chain crisis, and macroeconomic policy adjustment and coordination.
The global economy faces new challenges, but there are also favorable conditions
The global economy is recovering, but facing challenges such as energy, supply chains, inflation and so on. Zhu Guangyao, former vice minister of finance, pointed out that global economic growth still faces major challenges, including public health crises, climate change crises and energy crises. Shen Jianguang, vice president of JD Group and chief economist of JD Digital Technology, pointed out that the main danger of global economic finance is inflation. Higher inflation in the United States is likely to be medium- to long-term rather than short-term. Cao Yuanzheng, chairman of BOCI Research, pointed out that the energy crisis coupled with the impact of the epidemic may bring greater risks to economic growth. Former World Trade Organization Director-General Lamy pointed out that in the short term, the epidemic and supply chain bottlenecks have led to a contraction in international trade volumes; in the medium and long term, supply chain disorders, protectionism, differences in digital economy supervision, and geopolitics will affect the international trade pattern. Hao Fuman, director of the Institute of East Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore, believes that global economic growth may reach 5.7% this year, but this growth is uneven, and only one developing country can reach such a level.
Global economic growth faces medium- and long-term challenges. Li Yang, chairman of the National Finance and Development Laboratory and member of the Faculty of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the future development of the global economy, including China's economy, depends on the response and treatment of four factors: the epidemic, double carbon, debt and housing market. Chen Wenling, chief economist of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, believes that the current world economy is facing challenges brought about by eight major changes: mankind is facing life-threatening health problems; the uncertainty, imbalance and instability of the world economy have increased sharply; inflation risks and deflation risks have alternated; debt and financial risks have been increasing; the risk of supply chain disconnection; financial risks and financial system restructuring; the world economy is facing extreme climate risk challenges; and energy risks caused by human factors.
Global financial development is facing new challenges. Chen Weidong, president of the Bank of China Research Institute, believes that the development of global asset management has promoted changes in the structure of the global financial market: it has changed the pattern of financial institutions, promoted the short-term flow of capital and changed the risk structure of the global financial market. Particular attention needs to be paid to the possible impact of capital inflows in the form of asset managers. Blair, a senior economist and deputy director of the globalization think tank, believes that the future risks mainly lie in the stability of the economies of the United States and Europe. The United States experienced a financial crisis in 2008, and through another round of stimulus policies, it is possible that some form of financial crisis will break out. E Zhihuan, chief economist of BOCHK, pointed out that the epidemic has brought three major impacts on the traditional banking industry, changing the environment of the traditional banking industry, amplifying the risks of commercial banks, and bringing about changes in the behavior of a large number of customers of banks, and the banking industry needs to rethink its own development path.
Make full use of the favorable conditions in economic growth. Fan Gang, president of the China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute, pointed out that while seeing risks and challenges, it is also necessary to look for positive factors and make good use of them to promote medium- and long-term development. For example, the proportion of government debt is still very low, long-term bonds are small, and there are few bonds issued abroad, which are all favorable conditions for China's economic growth to be fully utilized. Sai Yaddin, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in South China, believes that although there are still trade frictions between China and the United States, Sino-US trade has achieved rapid growth, and it is expected that the scale of Sino-US trade will further rise. According to the survey, 71% of amCHAM South China members moved their business to China last year; more than 40% expect to increase their investment in China in the next five years.
Respond to economic and financial challenges with a high level of openness
Actively embrace the world rather than passively defend. Zhang Ping, deputy director of the National Finance and Development Laboratory and a second-level researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the pattern of global finance has not changed much. China should increase its share of SDRs, reform domestic currency issuance, coordinate fiscal policy with monetary policy, and provide more safe assets such as treasury bonds; and align domestic innovation with improving labor factor remuneration, that is, achieve efficiency improvements by improving human capital. Wang Wei, executive vice president of the Hong Kong Institute of International Finance, suggested that china's economic growth in the future will depend on a higher level and higher level of reform and opening up, including science and technology and financial fields, which will help strengthen, deepen and expand integration with the world.
Promote the internationalization of local currency and resolve international financial risks. Zhou Chengjun, director of the Institute of Finance of Chinese Min bank, pointed out that the internationalization of the local currency is a unique and important feature of China's opening up, transformation and becoming a large economy. In the case of the internationalization of the local currency and the gradual emergence of the instrument of balance of payments, even if there is an imbalance in the balance of payments, it is not necessary to adjust through the international currency, but through the local currency. In this process, the central bank has a relatively strong control and management ability over the issuance of local currency, which can greatly reduce the dependence on major international currencies and the external vulnerabilities that may arise from it, and correspondingly improve the ability to respond to external shocks.
Construct an institutional system of external circulation. Xiao Geng, president of the Hong Kong Institute of International Finance and director of the Institute of Policy and Practice of the Institute of Advanced Finance at the University of Chinese, Hong Kong, Shenzhen, suggested that the most important thing in the external circulation system is the monetary system, one is to enhance the competitiveness of the combination of domestic and foreign circulation, and the other is to enhance the affinity. It is proposed to build a unified external circulation system based on Hong Kong, including the Hainan Free Trade Port and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. Lin Juzheng, deputy inspector of the Shenzhen Municipal Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau, suggested giving play to a greater role in Hong Kong, exploring the priority of RMB denomination in Hong Kong's stock, bond, asset management and wealth management markets, encouraging the mainland government and enterprises to issue RMB-denominated municipal bonds and corporate bonds in Hong Kong, exploring the gradual promotion of RMB pricing in the fields of people's livelihood finance and foreign trade, and increasing the application of digital RMB in Hong Kong and even the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. (Social Science Newspaper Rong Media "Thought Workshop" produced the full text of the Social Science Newspaper and the official website)