At present, the new crown pneumonia epidemic is still fluctuating in the world, and the upward pressure on commodity prices is being transmitted, will there be major fluctuations in the world food market? Global food prices have risen by more than 40% this year, what is the trend of China's food security? The reporter learned from the interview that at present, China's grain supply is fully guaranteed, and grain prices have generally maintained a stable operation. Experts believe that China needs to make overall use of the two domestic and international markets and two kinds of resources, strive to prevent the imported impact of the international market, and firmly grasp the initiative in food security.
Grain production and imports increased in tandem
This year, China's grain output and import volume have shown a good situation of "increasing in tandem," and grain supply has been fully guaranteed. Grain production is expected to increase throughout the year, to achieve the target of more than 1.3 trillion kilograms of stable production and production set at the beginning of the year; grain imports have recorded growth, according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, the import volume from January to October was 137.956 million tons, an increase of 23% year-on-year, and the annual import volume is expected to exceed last year. "The large amount of grain imports is of positive significance to ensuring the stable supply of grain in China." Tu Shengwei, director of the Rural Economy Research Office of the Institute of Industrial Economics and Technological Economics of the National Development and Reform Commission, said.
"Structural shortages of food are the main reason for the increase in food imports." Zhong Yu, director of the Industrial Economics Research Office of the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said. This year, the release of pig production capacity has been accelerated, feed demand is strong, and most of the imported grain is used as feed. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first three quarters, 491.93 million pigs were out of the barn, an increase of 35.9% year-on-year; at the end of the third quarter, the pig inventory was 437.64 million heads, an increase of 18.2% year-on-year. Also is to replenish corn stocks. In 2020, China's corn stock consumption ratio is 50.8%, ensuring sufficient inventory and effectively stabilizing market expectations.
Amid a slow global economic recovery, global food prices have continued to climb this year. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the global cereal price index averaged 137.1 points in October, the highest level since April 2013. "At present, the domestic and foreign grain markets are deeply integrated, the price linkage is strong, and the impact of rising global grain prices on the domestic market cannot be ignored." Tu Shengwei said.
Different grain varieties in China have different degrees of dependence on foreign countries and are affected by the international market to different degrees. From January to October this year, grain import structure, soybean imports of 79.08 million tons, accounting for 57.32% of the total imports; corn sorghum barley imports of 44.35 million tons, accounting for 32% of the total imports; wheat and rice imports of 11.98 million tons, accounting for 8.7% of the total imports. Soybean imports still dominate, with grain imports popping up. Soybeans are highly dependent on imports, corn and wheat are subject to import quota management, import tariffs within the quota are low, and additional import tariffs are higher, which effectively protects the domestic market. Barley and sorghum are not protected by tariffs, but account for a relatively small proportion of total grain imports and have little impact on the domestic market.
Maintain the stability of the global grain trade chain
Although the global food industry chain supply chain has suffered a serious impact from the epidemic this year, the volume of trade has increased unabated.
Tu Shengwei believes that under the food security panic caused by the epidemic, countries have generally increased the scale of reserves, and some grain importing countries have actively encouraged imports, which has promoted the increase in global grain trade. At present, global grain stocks continue to increase, and the inventory-to-consumption ratio is stable at more than 30%, far higher than the international food security warning line of 17% to 18%.
"The epidemic has led to an imbalance between global food supply and demand, although global food production has increased this year, but the demand has increased even more, and the relationship between supply and demand has shown a stable and tightening trend." Zhong Yu said. Fao of the United Nations (FAO) estimates global cereal production at 2.793 billion tonnes in 2021/22, an increase of around 21 million tonnes from the previous year, and global demand for cereals at 2.812 billion tonnes, an increase of 49 million tonnes from the previous year.
As a responsible grain importer, China has always adhered to the all-round opening up policy, and the scale of grain imports has maintained steady growth.
Zhong Yu believes that this has stimulated the production capacity of major grain exporters such as the United States and Brazil, and maintained the stability of the global grain trade chain. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, China has not imposed restrictions on the import and export of grain, maintaining the global trade order.
Although this year has increased, global food trade has been limited. Zhong Yu believes that China should make more effective use of the international market, make up for the domestic surplus through imports, and solve the problem of structural shortage of domestic grain, but it is also necessary to fully consider the world's grain supply capacity, maintain the relative stability of import scale, and avoid sudden large-scale imports affecting food security. To this end, China should release a clear import signal or a reasonable and stable import demand expectation to the world every year, so that grain exporting countries can expand production or increase export supply in advance according to the trend, and even encourage grain exporting countries to increase investment in grain production and technological innovation. At the same time, it is also necessary to pay close attention to the supply situation and price trend of the international grain market, strengthen the monitoring of trade risks, natural risks, and factor supply risks, appropriately import when international prices are low and supply is abundant, and effectively improve import efficiency.
Grasp the initiative in grain imports
In the context of the ongoing epidemic and the increasingly complex international economic and trade environment, China's grain imports are facing severe challenges, and firmly grasping the stability and initiative of grain imports is of great significance to ensuring food security.
Zhong Yu believes that to grasp the stability and initiative of grain imports, we must first speed up the cultivation of our own multinational grain merchants. On the one hand, grain enterprises should deepen cooperation with large grain merchants to ensure the stability of grain imports; on the other hand, they should rely on the framework of multilateral agreements such as the "Belt and Road" initiative and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement to develop more trading partners, fully participate in the construction, restructuring and management of the global food industry chain, value chain, supply chain, and supply chain, and rank among the first echelons of multinational grain merchants as soon as possible.
At the same time, it is necessary to actively explore trade channels, focus on diversifying grain imports, reduce trade concentration, and resist potential trade risks such as flight blockages and export restrictions. In the face of the normalization and trend of grain imports in the future, China should promote the standardization, transparency and proceduralization of grain export restriction measures under the framework of the WTO and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, and promote the improvement of export restriction measures. It is necessary to accelerate the construction of free trade zones and actively build a global commodity trading center in China.
To enhance China's global grain trade discourse power and pricing power, the key is to base ourselves on the country and practice "internal strength." Tu Shengwei believes that China must unremittingly grasp grain production, enhance grain reserve capacity, ensure "basic self-sufficiency in grain and absolute security of rations," and firmly grasp the initiative in food security, so as to grasp the stability and initiative of imports and resist the risk of imported inflation brought about by rising international grain prices.
Column Editor-in-Chief: Gu Wanquan Text Editor: Dong Siyun Title Image Source: Xinhua News Agency Photo Editor: Cao Liyuan
Source: Author: Economic Daily Liu Hui