Li Daokui: At present, the world economy is facing a "black swan" and three "gray rhinos"

The 19th Annual Conference of Caijing was held on the 27th, and Li Daokui, dean of the Institute of Chinese Economic Thought and Practice of Tsinghua University, believed that the world economy now has a "black swan" and three "gray rhinoceros".

Li Daokui, Dean of the Institute of Chinese Economic Thought and Practice at Tsinghua University, courtesy of the organizers

Li Daokui said that a "black swan" is the epidemic, the epidemic is really difficult to predict, the virus is constantly mutating, "it is likely that we will face the biggest economic downturn or recession in the world since World War II", this is the black swan, do not dare to take it lightly.

For the three "gray rhinos", Li Daokui introduced, the first is the debt recession. In this response to the epidemic, fiscal policy countries have used a lot, and the level of the entire national debt worldwide has risen by 18% relative to GDP, although this figure is not high, but it is based on the original. So whether the epidemic will continue or end, so much debt will always be a problem later.

The second is the re-layout of the industrial chain. After the epidemic eases, developed countries will definitely find ways to make some industrial chains "move back", which will definitely cause production costs to rise for the global economy, and many countries will be negatively impacted.

The third is low carbon. What is the essence of low carbon? Because the new technology to replace traditional energy is not yet mature, including energy storage technology is not mature, it will definitely bring about an increase in costs.

So, how should China respond? In this regard, Li Daokui believes that first of all, we attach great importance to the epidemic situation and attach great importance to economic work in the next few years. Specifically, we must find ways to deal with the problems left over from the old growth model in the past, while creating new growth points in accordance with the new development concept, changing the growth mode, and implementing the new growth and new development concept.

"The new growth point is nothing more than two, the first growth point is China's 1 billion people who have not yet entered the middle-income population, these 1 billion people are the hope of the new growth point now, if you can spend 15 years to turn 400 million of the 1 billion people into middle-income people, then the middle-income population will double, economic growth is very dynamic, and the pattern of double circulation will really be formed." At the same time, Li Daokui stressed that the key is to mobilize the enthusiasm of economic entities, in addition to entrepreneurs, the government is also.

Li Daokui also said that the second thing is to cultivate a new market, that is, a low-carbon market, so that the market can play a role. At the meeting, Li Daokui mentioned the "carbon tax", that is, the tax is levied at the production end of coal and crude oil. Li Daokui explained, "After the tax is collected, steelmaking will definitely increase in cost and will be transferred to the price of steel. After the price of steel went up, the price of second-hand steel and scrap steel immediately went up. Steel mills are willing to use scrap steel to make steel, its cost is low, and it does not have to reduce coal emissions. After the scrap comes, the cost of steel will fall, and the output of steel will not be affected, or even rise, which is the decisive role played by the market. ”

Li Daokui finally concluded that the current international situation cannot be taken lightly, we must be vigilant against one "black swan" and three "gray rhinos," and we must return to the new development concept in China, conscientiously study the resolutions of the Sixth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee, and find ways to mobilize the enthusiasm of local governments. Li Daokui suggested, "My idea is to first turn local debt into national debt, and then establish new fiscal discipline for local governments and mobilize enthusiasm." At the same time, the market approach, the carbon tax approach instead of the carbon trading method, let the market play a decisive role."

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

Editor/Fan Hongwei