Recently, a new variant of South Africa that is more contagious and evasive than the Delta strain (omicron) has emerged, which may bring a new outbreak storm.
The trend of normalization of the new crown virus is more obvious, and coexistence is currently the consensus view.
At present, in addition to strictly controlling the risk of importation, the current domestic strict prevention of the new crown vaccine is another point that is more effective vaccine. Mrna vaccine is more effective than inactivated vaccine, the effect against mutant viruses is also better than inactivated vaccine, and the technical route of mrna vaccine is more promising than that of inactivated vaccine, which is one of the directions of high-tech biotechnology in the future.
And China's future vaccine third shot to use different technical routes (as shown in the figure below), in the context of the current new crown virus non-stop mutation and foreign new crown epidemic, vaccination of MALNA vaccine is the inevitable result of the future, then in the current international situation, will we use foreign MNA vaccine? Will foreign countries give it to us? The answer, of course, is impossible! So what to do? Make your own!
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Watson Bio's MNA vaccine is the only vaccine in China that has entered the phase III clinical stage, as shown in the following figure:
When the CCTV official media said with certainty that "different technical routes are launched to strengthen immunity", the use of the Watson MNA vaccine is basically certain.
Watson will be the third company in the world to launch the MNA vaccine, and the huge domestic market coupled with breaking the monopoly of foreign vaccines will increase exponentially in the next few years.
So does the current stock price reflect this expectation?
The data is as shown in the figure above, with reference to the growth characteristics of two related foreign companies, if Watson only according to the new crown vaccine to increase the income for gross estimates, coupled with the characteristics of high research and development investment of technology companies, 21 years of free cash flow gross estimate and adjustment to 350 million, the future free cash flow compound growth rate is expected to be 40%, calculated 119 yuan per share, a 30% discount of about 84 yuan
The above gross estimate does not include other products under development, in fact, it is still undervalued, the valuation of technology companies is not easy to determine, here is a simplified gross estimate.
Long take a year or two, 40 to 50 yuan or so is a good opening range.