The Paper's reporter Liu Hui
The Moldova gas crisis is back on the waves. Gazprom (GAZ) informed Moldova on November 22 that it would stop supplying gas after 48 hours if it did not pay the gas bill owed. The Moldovan prime minister then requested an emergency appropriation from the parliament to pay off the debt, and hoped that the Russian side would be lenient. Gazprom's latest statement on the 24th said that it agreed to postpone moldova's payment to the 26th.
On October 11, 2021, local time, a staff member was checking the pressure gauge at Gazprom's Oil, Gas and Condensate Gas Field No. 3 Integrated Gas Treatment Station. Visual China figure
Moldova currently has a to pay Gazprom a whopping $73 million (about 466 million yuan), and the two sides have previously signed a 30-year gas supply contract, which was extended for one month after the contract expired at the end of September this year, and raised the gas price from $200/10000 to 7900033 according to market conditions. Negotiations have since stalled over price and debt – some argue that Moldova's new pro-EU government has made Russia decide to say goodbye to "gas philanthropy" and instead seek to charge at the soaring natural gas market price this winter.
Although Moldova announced in October this year that it will start importing natural gas from countries outside Russia, such as Ukraine, Poland, the Netherlands and other places, Moldova, which was once a member of the former Soviet Union, has long been 100% dependent on Russia for natural gas, and once Gazprom is determined to cut off supply, the daily life of people throughout Moldova is bound to be seriously affected.
"I don't know how to live"
At the end of October, the news that Moldova faced Russia's "gas outage threat" dominated the media headlines. On October 22, affected by the shortage of natural gas in Europe and gazprom's demand for higher prices, the Moldovan parliament declared that the country had entered a one-month state of emergency due to the energy crisis in order to urgently allocate funds for additional gas purchases.
When news of the price bottleneck in the O.M. gas negotiations, Nina Khokhlova, an ethnic Russian born in Moldova, fell into anger and anxiety. "The government should have reached an agreement with Russia sooner so that gas prices wouldn't skyrocket," she said in a recent interview with the www.thepaper.cn. ”
On October 28, 2021, local time, a gas station in Moldova. People's Vision Diagram
Gazprom cut its gas supply to Moldova by a third in September after its long-term contract with Moldova ended and required a new contract price to be determined with reference to the market price. The Financial Times (FT) reported on October 27 that Russia also proposed that Moldova adjust its free trade agreement with the European Union and postpone energy market reforms with the European Union in exchange for cheaper natural gas for the country.
As a compromise, according to Reuters news on October 30, Gazprom and moldovan governments signed a new five-year Russian gas supply contract, the new agreement will take effect from November 1. Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister Spinu revealed that Moldova will buy Russian natural gas in November at nearly $450/thousand cubic meters, half of the market price. And the Moldovan government and Gazprom have agreed to audit the debt next year and negotiate a payment schedule.
After signing the 5-year contract, the Russian company said that the two sides have signed a mediation agreement on issues in the field of natural gas, and the conditions for the extension of the agreement are mutually favorable. The Moldovan government said that the calculation method proposed by the Moldovan side will be used in the new contract, and that the debt of Moldovan Gas Company against Gazprom will be audited in 2022, which is expected to be repaid within five years with interest.
Moldova Gas Company People's Vision Diagram
At this point, the outside world thought that moldova's gas crisis had come to an end, until Gazprom once again issued a notice of imminent gas outage, saying: "Gazprom has not yet received the current gas payment from Moldova." The deadline is 48 hours after the notice of termination of supply due to non-payment, which expires today (November 24). ”
A statement released on the website of moldova's parliament on the 24th pointed out that the country's prime minister Natalia Gavrice has sent a request to the parliament to urgently consider the amendment of the 2021 State Budget Law to allocate funds to repay the debt of the gas.
At the request of the Moldovan side, the Russian side agreed to give a grace. "The Moldovan government has made a request to Gazprom not to stop supplying natural gas from today onwards. At the same time, Moldova fully recognizes the legitimacy of Gazprom's operation and pledges to pay the full amount owed on November 26. Gazprom understood that citizens of the Republic of Moldova could be in trouble and agreed to this request as a show of goodwill. Russian gas spokesman Sergei Kupyanov said on the 24th.
"My pension is only 1,000 lei (about 1,447 yuan), and my husband is the same, but prices in Moldova have been rising, medicines and food are expensive," Khokhlova told The Paper, she can't imagine how retirees like her can withstand the rise in heating prices.
Economic disputes are also political issues
Moldova is a landlocked country located in southeastern Europe, bordering countries such as Romania and Ukraine. In recent years, Moldova has made european integration and accession to the European Union a priority diplomatic goal. With the official arrival of "pro-European" President Sandu in 2020 to replace former "pro-Russian" President Dodo, there is friction between Russia and Moldova in exchanges.
On July 9, 2021, local time, a Moldovan parliament building, an EU flag and a Moldovan flag fluttered in the wind. People's Vision Diagram
For Moldovans like Khokhlova, who have lived through the Soviet era, Russia seems more attractive than Europe. "Ever since we left the SOVIET UNION, there have been factories closing and people losing their jobs. Now many highly educated people have to stand in the bazaars to sell goods," she said, a country that sees no hope for young people, "and my daughter moved to Moscow, where her life is wonderful." ”
Khokhlova also said: "Our government wants to be close to Europe and oppose Russia, but Russia has helped Moldova a lot." When the president says bad things about Russia, I regret that it shouldn't be. Sensing the hostility of Moldovan social policy towards the Russians as well as the Russian language, she did not vote for Sandu in 2020, but instead supported Dodon, co-chair of the union of "communists and socialists".
On October 28, 2021, local time, in Chisinau, Moldova, a woman rode a bicycle through the Moldovan government building. People's Vision Diagram
Moldova is one of the poorest countries in Europe, with a population of about 3.5 million, of which at least 40% have chosen to work and live abroad to escape poverty, so the country may have less than 2 million inhabitants in 2021, according to Agence France-Presse. Khokhlova's daughter is one of the immigrants, and she hopes that her young son will leave Moldova and go to Russia or Europe in the near future.
Stanislav Secrieru, a researcher at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), wrote on the occasion of The latest five-year contract between Russia and Moldova that the latest round of gas fighting between Russia and Moldova appears to be over. However, if the relationship between the two countries and their post-Soviet history makes any sense, he predicts, it will be unlikely to be the last energy-related skirmish between Moscow and Chisinau.
"Energy dependence provides Russia with a powerful diplomatic tool, which never hesitates to use it, especially from November to January (the month with high demand for natural gas)." Secreru wrote in the article: "Although the negotiations are considered a purely economic issue, politics is always lurking behind it. In this way, the gas confrontation between Russia and Moldova in 2021 is not an anomaly, but a recurring latest phenomenon. ”
At the end of October, when the Russian-Moroccan gas negotiations reached an impasse, the West began to accuse Russia of politicizing the issue. The United States has come out to accuse Russia of using energy as a geopolitical weapon against Europe, and the European Union has also said it is closely watching the situation, saying it is willing to provide assistance, including cash, to Moldova.
While neighboring Poland and Romania have both offered to support Moldova, Poland actually needs to import Russian energy. Therefore, the gas supply agreement signed by Moldova with countries such as Poland is more symbolic, that is, Moldova intends to change the status quo of complete dependence on Gazprom.
The Kremlin denied allegations of using energy as a weapon, which Russian President Vladimir Putin in turn dismissed as "politically motivated nonsense and groundless delusions." In his analytical article, Sekrirus also said moldova has done too little work in recent decades and has been hampered by poor governance and high-level corruption to untie its energy ties to Russia.
The consequences of Pro-European pro-Moldova?
In November 2020, the Moldovan Central Election Commission released preliminary results showing that after completing 100% of the votes, Sandu received 57.75% of the votes and 42.25% of the votes. Agence France-Presse reported at the time that the election was a close concern for Russia because it hoped the polarist Moldova would remain under its influence at a time of political turmoil in several Kremlin-allied governments.
On December 24, 2020 local time, in Chisinau, Moldova, the inauguration ceremony of the new President, Maya Sandu, was held. Surging image
57.75% vs. 42.25%, and it is most appropriate to describe the opinion of the Moldovan people towards Russia as divided. Khokhlova belongs to the pro-Russian camp. In her opinion, "if there is a normal government, not a government that blames Russia for everything, then everything will be fine." "But there are also plenty of pro-European Moldovans who are suspicious that the country's leaders now support Europe and support closer ties with the EU, and that the gas crisis is the Kremlin's way of expressing opposition."
Sandu defeated Dodon in last year's general election, and his party won another big victory in this year's parliamentary election, laying the foundation for Moldova's pro-European line. Sergei Tofirat, a former energy adviser to moldova's president, said in an interview with the BBC that Moldova held parliamentary elections in 2021 and that pro-Russian parties had lost. Now there is a pro-Western party in power. As a result, Russia has changed its approach to the supply of gas to Morocco.
"The Kremlin wants to punish the Moldovan people for voting against pro-Russian parties. It's pure politics. "Moldova does not want to succumb to Moscow, so it must reject Russian blackmail and now has a chance to get rid of Russian influence in Moldova." ”
When Sandu came to power, while presiding over her first major press conference, she forcefully demanded the withdrawal of Russian troops from the separatist Transnistrian region. Sandu believes that moldova no longer has the risk of civil war, and the time is ripe to replace Russian peacekeepers with civilian observers. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin's press secretary Peskov responded that no matter what measures the new Moldovan leadership intends to take, any negative impact related to the measures, Moscow will consider it carefully and politely reject her request.
The conflict in Transnistria began in 1989, when soviet troops withdrew from Moldova, and most of the region's inhabitants (mainly Russians and Ukrainians) demanded to secede from Moldova in order to join the Russian Federation. In 1992, armed conflict broke out between Moldova and the so-called "Transnistrian Republic", which lasted for several months. After the intervention of Russian peacekeepers, the conflict ceased in the summer of 1992.
Russia has only 1,000 troops in the region, but its influence cannot be underestimated. More than 80 percent of Moldova's electricity comes from a Russian-owned power plant in transnistria, where separatist forces are supported economically, politically and militarily. Coupled with Moldova's almost 100% dependence on Russian gas, it will not be easy to reduce Russia's ability to exert influence on the country.
"Russia's threat to cut off Moldova's gas reflects the diplomatic woes of small countries," the BBC reported in late October, with Moldovan Foreign Minister Popescu acknowledging that it was the worst time for the country's gas crisis, with gas prices higher than ever.
Responsible editor: Zhang Wuwei Photo editor: Shi Jiahui
Proofreader: Yan Zhang