The saliva of private housing enterprises will drip on the table.
Poly will issue 9.8 billion yuan of corporate bonds in one go, China Shipping will issue 5 billion yuan of bonds, and China Merchants Shekou will also issue two credit bonds of 3 billion yuan in one day.
Developers who have been choked by the throat of financing seem to have ushered in a glimmer of light, and the overdue debts of some housing companies have also been extended.
However, it seems that the recent issuance of bonds is still basically dominated by central enterprises and state-owned enterprises.
Screenshot of the announcement released by China Shipping on November 22
Screenshot of poly development's announcement released on November 22
Since October so far (including the above-mentioned bond issuance plans), the total amount of bond issuance and financing plans of Poly-related enterprises has exceeded 18 billion yuan, the total amount of China Shipping is 10 billion yuan, and the total amount of China Merchants Shekou is 6 billion yuan.
For most private developers, only envy remains.
In the past few decades, it has been relatively easy for real estate companies to list in Hong Kong stocks, and once they complete the listing, they can obtain financing in the capital market.
By borrowing new money to pay off old money, developers can avoid debt defaults and hopefully replace high-interest bonds with low-interest bonds, reducing financing costs. But the door to financing has slowly closed since last year.
Debt refinancing has become constrained, sales collection has become more difficult, regulation and price limits have compressed profits, and the three "top-secret weapons" of housing enterprises to take money have gradually lost their original functions and roles, and survival has become more difficult.
If you use a curve chart to describe the financing of housing enterprises this year, it must be a curve chart that goes all the way down.
But recently, it has begun to pick up.
Housing enterprises financing sentient beings
From the recent fluctuations in real estate stocks, it can also be seen that the capital market's judgment on the prospects of real estate financing is still full of uncertainty.
In the past two weeks, the real estate sector has experienced sharp fluctuations in stock prices, and even the stock prices have risen sharply on a certain trading day, and the individual stocks that have harvested the up and down board include China Merchants Shekou, Poly, Gemdale, Sunshine City, Taihe Group, etc.
The good side is that the financing plans of many housing enterprises have made substantial progress, the bosses are willing to pay money, and the debts of some quasi-detonating housing enterprises have been extended.
For example, on November 18, the extension of sunshine city's three dollar bonds was all approved, and sunshine city's public debts due in November have been extended.
But optimism does not change the situation in which there is still great resistance and difficulties in the industry.
In the past two months, people in the industry have begun to "thaw" in the transfer of financing, but some housing enterprises have bluntly said in the "Confession Bureau", "saying that the quota is relaxed, private enterprises do not feel obvious, and state-owned enterprises may be slightly better." ”
There are no more than four channels for financing housing enterprises, bond issuance, allotment of shares, sale of assets and equity and boss money, first of all, bond issuance, and then divided into domestic and overseas bond issuance.
It is said that cai cat statistics in the second half of the year (July-November) housing enterprises completed the issuance of bonds in china. Among the mainstream housing enterprises, there are probably less than 30 housing enterprises that can issue domestic credit bonds, including China Merchants, Poly, China Shipping, Jinmao, Joy City, Zhuhai Huafa, Sino-Ocean Capital, Gemdale, Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, etc.
△The above table data or incomplete Statistics time as of November 22, for reference only (excluding urban investment and urban construction companies)
In addition, there are many characteristics to follow in the financing of the real estate industry in the second half of the year.
The lowest interest rate is C&D Group's 1 billion yuan ultra-short-term financing bonds, with an interest rate of only 2.64%, an average interest rate of about 3.5%, which greatly reduces the cost of financing; the shortest term is only 29 days, less than a month, and the longest term is 9 years.
In addition, local urban investment and urban construction companies have more applications for bond issuance in China; the approval of bond issuance plans is accelerating, and the issuance of bonds can be completed within 5 days as soon as possible.
In terms of foreign bonds, statistics show that from July to October, a total of 90 offshore bonds of Chinese-funded real estate were issued, and the main body of this bond issuance was basically private enterprises, of which the highest interest rate reached 14.2%, which was 205 million US dollars of bonds issued by Xinyuan Real Estate.
The largest overseas equity financing raised during the year is estimated to be 85 million non-cumulative perpetual overseas preferred shares newly issued by China Cinda Asset Management, raising a total of 10.89 billion yuan, which China Cinda said will be used to supplement the company's other Tier 1 capital.
Probably it is really difficult to borrow money, and even many housing enterprise bigwigs have begun to pay their own money to save the company, alleviating the tension of the capital chain, before there is R&F Li Silian, Zhang Li, and then there is Sunac Sun Hongbin interest-free loan of 2.9 billion to the company, Evergrande Xu Jiayin also became a seller of property to raise 7 billion yuan.
The development of the industry has encountered obstacles, the company has fallen into a crisis, and the boss cannot stay out of the matter.
Financing blood transfusion is ineffective, and it is difficult to top itself
The past decade has been the era of financial dividends for real estate, and whoever can borrow more money can expand rapidly and increase market share.
However, in the past year or so, the rules of real estate have been completely rewritten. Housing enterprises ushered in changes, a large reason is caused by the great changes in the financing environment. The development model of "high turnover" and high leverage has failed, and the real estate industry has bid farewell to the era of scale and wild leverage.
No more leverage can be added, which means that housing enterprises should go back to the payment as much as possible, sell houses to realize cash, and reduce the proportion of inventory, so as to reduce debt.
Compared with 2019 and 2020, this year is the year when housing enterprises are really "tight on money". Following the three red lines, the new regulations on real estate loans have set two red lines for banks, followed by the inclusion of commercial bills in the "three red lines" supervision, trust tightening, and rating downgrades.
It is said that cai cat has counted the funds in place by housing enterprises in the past 10 months and found three major trends.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, since the beginning of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of housing enterprises in place has gradually slowed down, and there is still a growth rate of 50% from January to February at the beginning of the year, but in October, the cumulative growth rate of housing enterprises in place is only 8.8% year-on-year.
Looking closely, the source of funds in place for housing enterprises has gradually shifted from "foreign capital" and "domestic loans" to "self-financing" and "deposits and advance receipts", the proportion of foreign debt is declining, and domestic credit debt remains at a certain level.
In the first ten months of this year, the total amount of funds in place for housing enterprises was about 16 trillion yuan, of which the cumulative utilization of foreign capital was only 7.2 billion yuan, accounting for 0.045%, and the year-on-year decline was -35.4%; domestic loans totaled about 2 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.47%, down 10% year-on-year.
In addition, the main sources of funds in place for housing enterprises are "self-financing", "deposit and advance receipt" and "personal mortgage loans", which accounted for 32.57%, 38.4% and 16.51% in the first Ten Months of this year, respectively, with positive growth year-on-year, with an increase of 5.1%, 21% and 9.7%.
It can be seen that this year has achieved certain results in grasping the capital and debt structure of housing enterprises.
In order to reduce the increase of foreign capital and domestic loans by housing enterprises without relying on leverage, reduce the scale of borrowing of foreign capital by housing enterprises, so that they can obtain time for development through self-hematopoiesis (payment collection) and mortgage loans and advance receipts.
Speaking of data, in October, the domestic loans of housing enterprises were about 137.8 billion yuan, and the "self-financing" and "deposit and advance receipts" were 540.5 billion yuan and 535.1 billion yuan respectively, reaching the lowest value of the year, and the year-on-year growth rate of a single month fell more seriously, and domestic loans fell by nearly 30% year-on-year.
This means that the financial pressure of housing enterprises by October this year is greater, and the capital chain is more tense.
Loans are not released, the performance of selling houses is poor, and housing enterprises are desperate. In the second half of the year, there were more housing companies with broken capital chains, such as Fantasia, Xinli, contemporary real estate and so on.
This is a positive sign.
Personal mortgage loans are bank loans for home buyers to sell houses, and finally allocated by banks to developers, which is the situation where the funds in place for housing enterprises come from personal mortgage loans.
In the single month of January to April this year, the year-on-year growth rate of personal mortgage loans was decreasing month by month, the monthly growth rate of personal mortgage loans in June and September was negative, and the speed of bank lending slowed down until the first time in October this year, which showed that banks had accelerated lending.
Bank lending has accelerated, which is conducive to alleviating the pressure on housing enterprises to develop funds.
On Friday, a spokesman for the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission mentioned that "the demand for reasonable loans for real estate has been met." In addition, a spokesman for the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said that more than 90% of personal housing loans were used to support the first home, and loans to the housing rental market increased by more than 60% year-on-year.
However, in general, in the first 10 months, the year-on-year growth rate of funds in place for real estate development enterprises was generally slowing down steadily, of which the year-on-year growth rate of foreign capital utilization was below 0%, which has been a negative growth.
The end of the year is approaching, the "grain" supply of housing enterprises in the winter will be made up, said cai cat through various information channels to learn that there have been some cities of the bank to carry out action, speed up the approval of housing enterprises development loans, the end of November development loan balance is expected to achieve positive growth.
But it is worth noting that this does not mean flood irrigation.
When "housing is not speculated", "insisting on not using real estate as a means to stimulate the economy in the short term", "three stability", "implementing a good real estate financial prudential management system", etc. have become constraints, the real estate industry is transitioning from a barbaric era to a rational era.
The same goes for financing.
Recently, the money has indeed loosened up a bit, but for most housing companies, the most difficult time may not have passed.