There are always things in life that we can't predict before they happen.
I don't know what the future has to do with this black swan? In the previous understanding, all the swans in the world were white. So people thought that swans were white and wrote them into textbooks as common sense.
With the advent of the era of the unbanned encyclopedia. People found that the swans on the Australian continent were actually black. Thanks to the discovery of black swans, the common sense of swans in the past has been subverted.
In this way, the first-hand knowledge of this matter is basically from observation, just like the black swan, and just one appearance is enough to subvert the conclusions reached by millions of observations at that time.
This shows that our understanding of the world is seriously limited and one-sided, and there are major flaws in the way we perceive the world.
We can think back to our own lives. What about the work you're doing and the acquaintance of friends that you're expecting?
Shaoguan - Night in Beijiang
If black swan events represent those uncertain things that are unknown, what do we need to do? How do you get rid of this natural mindset and make predictions about what will happen in the future?
When we look back at history, there are many things that unfold in unexpected ways, and no one can predict the cause of a black swan event; there is much uncertainty and contingency in its formation and development.
First, let's talk about why we always ignore black swan events. Taleb found that humans tend to over-interpret what has already happened. Always thinking about finding a reason.
Timid little raccoon
For this reason, we think we have a deeper understanding of past events, and even think that those things are more predictable—this is called narrative fallacy.
The history of mankind itself is propelled by a series of uncertain and unpredictable things—things that are black swans.
For example, when the First World War broke out, it was generally believed that this was just a contradiction between several countries and would not implicate other countries too much. By the time World War II broke out, the French were still confident about the future, believing that the war would last a few years at most. And we all know that World War I and World War II lasted a long time and involved many countries; this seemed very incredible at the time.
But now when we look back at these histories. The outbreak of World War I and World War II is inevitable. Because there are already countless signs foreshadowing us in advance, this is the typical narrative fallacy.
Beijing-Shanghai Pusu Line - Wuxi Passenger Section
And it is precisely under the inducement of this narrative fallacy that we ignore the occurrence of black swan events. This is why the author fools us not to blindly believe in the success of successful people.
Here, it is not against learning to imitate successful people. Rather, it is not possible to enshrine him as an authoritative treasure of life; the reason is that these success stories, often recorded by people recalling the past, may well have missed some of the rationalizations that were unpredictable at the time. Through their formulation, it is difficult to see the real and complete process of experience.
In life, we are also prone to make a mistake, that is, once we identify an idea in our minds, we will unconsciously look for what can be correct. My own ideas are the correct examples, and those examples that can refute my ideas are always automatically ignored.
In this way, we are prone to falling into blind self-confidence. For example, I was traveling with friends, and the return flight was delayed, leaving me waiting at the airport for five hours. I might be thinking, it would be nice to book an earlier flight, if you check the delay rate of this flight in advance.
Green farming – plump pea pods
In fact, we should see more of the inevitable part of the event, and there is really no need to impose an explanation for this kind of inevitable random event. For example, when you're doing a stressful graduation defense, you can't know or predict whether you'll pass. So restless. However, knowing that the defense has passed, they tend to think that their efforts are doomed to everything, that everything is predictable and explainable.
I think this probably explains why I went through a major exam; looking back at everything, I think that exam is not worth mentioning easily. Of course, this is on the premise of taking the exam well.
Imagine a white, chubby turkey that is fed every day. He lived a comfortable life without worrying about no one to feed him tomorrow; until thanksgiving eve, the turkey did not think of the hand that fed him every day, and the hand that would eventually break its neck. For turkeys, not feeding on Thanksgiving Eve is a black swan event. It can't really predict future fate by observing the amount of food it feeds each day. With each feeding, does his sense of security rise by one point?
However, the greatest danger comes when her sense of security is at its peak, and we can draw an analogy to the experience we gain from real life. Knowledge has been at work in the past, but suddenly fails at some point where the future is unpredictable.
Knife mantis
Therefore, we must not have excessive confidence in our knowledge. Because the uncertainty of the world may come to me at any time, what is terrible is not the known unknown, but the unknown that makes people tremble.
The known unknown can be solved by summarizing our previous experience; but the unknown makes us have no concept at all. Risk drops sharply, and because we are unprepared, we can suffer exponential destruction in an environment that we think we can control.
You might say that since black swan events are difficult to predict, they must be low probability events. Yes, if we look at a certain black swan event alone, the probability is indeed very small, but if we consider the probability of a certain type of black swan event from the overall perspective, it is very large. Take terrorist attacks, for example. Although most people would not expect that the World Trade Center would one day be hit by a plane, because the odds of this matter are too low, but since the 1970s and 1980s, due to the imbalance of the world's political economy, coupled with religious and other factors, terrorism has been on the rise. Terrorist attacks are also on the rise, for example in 1992. A total of 5,081 terrorist attacks have occurred worldwide. In terms of probability, even if there is no 911 event, there may be 912 and 913. Instead of hijacking an airplane, hitting a building or crashing into a subway explosion, there is a situation that makes us underestimate the probability of a black swan event.
In statistical terms, it is called selective bias, which means that in statistical analysis, the selected sample may not be random enough to represent the overall situation and lead to wrong conclusions.
Peony flowers
Let's take an example. Most gamblers think that their luck will always be particularly good at first, and then it will gradually deteriorate, and even some statistical studies support this conclusion. But is that really the case? We might as well think about it from another angle, if you started gambling and always lost, would you continue to gamble? It is likely that he will immediately stop and leave.
On the contrary, if you start to taste the sweetness, it is estimated that you will go in the gamble, so the sample that gamblers can see is one-sided, so it is also wrong to summarize the law of mobile phone deterioration. When you see the bright and beautiful stars on the stage, you think that as long as you are admitted to art schools and become stars, you can gain fame and fortune. In fact, because you don't see them next to the same art school, the same talented people, but in the bar singing on the street, struggling.
When you see people around you who have graduated from elementary school but can make a lot of money, you begin to doubt yourself. Doubt that you have worked hard to get into college, and no one has graduated from primary school, and when you doubt yourself, you lament the uselessness of reading. As everyone knows, that is, falling into the trap of survivor bias, because you don't know that there are more than 80% of people in China who are below college; even if the success rate of high education is greater than that of those with low education, there will also be many people with low education and success, and they just happen to be seen by you.
Human beings make history, but history is written by survivors, which makes history the hardest hit area of survivor bias. History, for its part, has always presented us with a well-organized, causal evolutionary process. The inexplicable randomness is overshadowed by survivor bias.
Changde. Hunan Preschool Teachers College
In the same way, the worse the impact of the black swan event, the easier it is to be ignored by future generations. You should have heard the saying that history is written by the victors. For those who survived the risks, in retrospect, they tend to be genuinely confident in their abilities; forgetting how dangerous the actual situation was at the time.
After understanding why it is easy to underestimate the probability of a black swan event, let's take a look at the last part. How to deal with black swan events?
To deal with black swan events, we must first learn to question, do not be carried away by the so-called authoritative information, and always remain calm. The reality is exactly that. Don't rush to attribution, don't trust the conclusions of others; in the face of explaining the world, everyone is truly equal, and all have the right to give their own understanding to the unknown world.
We cannot delegate this right to experts. This blinds the eyes that see the nature of the world; having more information doesn't mean we know more about the uncertain, and you don't guarantee that you'll be able to make better predictions.
See the micro-knowledge
In addition to remaining skeptical, Taleb believes that in the social ecology of frequent black swan events, it is also very important to establish the awareness of black swans. We must constantly revise our thinking and inherent classifications, have considerable sensitivity and risk awareness of changes in things, and do not predict for the sake of prediction; we must regard the position itself as a predicted result, so as to ensure that we are fully prepared when extreme events come; and we should stop thinking of black swans as isolated cases.
To focus on randomness and uncertainty events, to understand their causes and effects, over time, experience more things, gradually you will become an expert in randomness and uncertainty, when others are focused on the East, so that you still have the consciousness to observe the West.
In Mr. Gu Long's novel, there is a man named Lao Bo, who digs a hole under the bed, and can sink into the underground river by moving, and Lao Bo's arranges a boat in the river, and a person stays there for many years, and later, this elaborate escape passage really saves Lao Bo's life; this pre-arranged mechanism is enough to trigger once. Lao Bo is undoubtedly a person with a strong sense of dealing with black swan events.
To deal with the black swan event, everything must be brave in layman's terms to leave room and backhand, for example, if you are an investor, then you have to learn from Buffett, maintain a reasonable position, have a dissatisfied position, and always keep a part of the cash reserve. Similarly, if you are just an ordinary office worker, if you do not care about the professional skills improvement, career planning, and when you get home, you will lie on the sofa and brush your mobile phone, in fact, if it is only like this, the last thing you can get is a mediocre life.
That is, we have to choose to stay away from such a boring and hopeless life, because you don't know what kind of harm such a comfort zone you rely on will give you and when.
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The novel coronavirus of 2020 is a typical black swan event. Before the incident, no one expected such a severe outbreak to occur. After the incident, it not only affected the economy of China and even the world. It has even affected the lives of 1 billion people around the world. Although scientists are trying to find the source of the outbreak, there is still no definite conclusion.
Whether it's an unpredictable low probability event or a predictable approximate human event. Having a certain sense of crisis and taking corresponding preventive measures is an effective measure to deal with an uncertain future. Born in sorrow, died in comfort.
At the end of the day, let's sum it up. The lack of a global view, combined with selective bias, leads us to underestimate the probability of black swan events. Make me turn a blind eye to him. If you want to deal with black swan events, establishing the awareness of black swans is the first. Stop thinking of black swan events as special cases, and focus on a world of randomness and uncertainty to understand their causes and effects.
We've all been working on finding certainty to let that guide our lives. Through the black swan, we find that uncertainty is the thing that should be most worthy of our attention and study.
No one can anticipate the invention of an object; or realize how much uncertainty and contingency are involved in the cause, shape, and development of an event. Therefore, I cannot help but say that some things are the result of extreme events caused by whim, which have leveraged the current state and structural layout and led to major changes.
This article is not telling us about agnosticism, but allowing us to form and possess black swan thinking and ideas, which is the greatest wealth. With the black swan mentality, we will not be self-righteous, but careful.
The world is becoming more and more entropyy- and uncertainty is a fundamental feature of our time. In such an uncertain environment, how to prevent various risks is a problem that everyone must think carefully about and face.
Black swans are unpredictable and unpredictable, and we need to be mentally prepared to deal with black swans and face the existence of black swans. And to respond positively and effectively when it comes, to continuously enrich their cognitive system through a lot of reading. It is even more necessary to adhere to independent thinking, avoid conformity in thinking, and learn to intercept valuable knowledge from the complicated information. Falsification is often the best way to get close to the truth, deliberately practicing reverse thinking, switching perspectives to look at tasks that seem very difficult or even impossible to complete at work; maybe you and I can find relatively perfect solutions in life!