Source: Harbin Daily
According to the latest data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national pork price in the second week of November was 27.18 yuan per kilogram, rising for four consecutive weeks, which is also a significant recovery in pork prices after a continuous sharp decline since the Spring Festival. Has the supply of pork decreased?
National pork prices have rebounded at a low level
It has been up for four consecutive weeks
At a pork store in Beijing's Changping District, sales staff told reporters that pork prices have dropped by more than 40% since the Spring Festival this year to the first week of October, and pork prices hit the lowest point since 2019 in early October. Stimulated by low-priced pork, the demand for cured bacon, products and storage in the market increased significantly after mid-October, and sales increased by 30% compared with the previous month.
Li Miao, a salesman at a pork store in Beijing: Winter is the peak season for the sale of pork, there are more people cured bacon and enemas, and now our daily sales have reached more than one ton, and the price has risen by two to three yuan a pound.
The reporter learned during the interview that this round of pork prices have rebounded at a low level, and consumption pull is the main reason, and the supply of pork has not decreased.
Xin Guochang, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: The slaughter volume of pigs in large-scale slaughtering enterprises nationwide in October has reached 30.23 million heads, an increase of 111% year-on-year, 5.14 million heads more than in September. The price increase in the case of such a large increase in supply indicates that consumption pull has played a major role.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' monitoring of 500 bazaars across the country, the national pork price in the second week of November 2021 was 27.18 yuan per kilogram, up 4 consecutive weeks, an increase of 29%.
Farmers:
Half of the first ten months were made and half lost
△ CCTV Finance "First Time" column video
Pork prices have risen, is it profitable or loss-making for farmers to raise pigs now?
In a large-scale farm in Zhenping County, Nanyang City, Henan Province, pigs are gradually out of the barn, the person in charge said that since the National Day, the price of live pigs has risen for 5 consecutive weeks, the current average price is about 17 yuan per kilogram, the cumulative increase of more than 5 yuan, has been slightly higher than the cost line, back to the profit range.
Wen Yangang, general manager of a pig breeding enterprise in Zhenping County, Nanyang City, Henan Province, explained that although the next two months are the traditional peak consumption season, due to the large scale of increase in breeding and expansion in the first two years, the stage excess of pig production capacity is unlikely to improve in a short period of time, so he also expressed cautious optimism.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from January to October this year, pig breeding was profitable in the first 5 months and lost money in the last 5 months, but the pig price in the first half of the year was higher, and the average profit per pig in the general ledger was 644 yuan, higher than the average profit of about 200 yuan in normal years.
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs:
The first quarter of next year
The breeding sow stock can be adjusted to the appropriate level
Pig prices pick up, farms are back above the breakeven point, will this upward trend continue?
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Monitoring, since March this year, the number of new piglets per month in the national scale pig farm is more than 30 million heads, and continue to grow, these piglets fattening 6 months will grow into fat pigs out of the barn listing, it is expected that the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year the listed fat pigs will increase significantly year-on-year, the market supply of relatively loose fundamentals have not changed.
From the perspective of production capacity, the national stock of fertile sows in October was 43.48 million heads, which was 6% more than the normal number of 41 million heads. Xin Guochang said that since June this year, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, together with relevant departments, has issued intensive production and market warnings, and the number of fertile sows in the country is being reduced in an orderly manner.
Xin Guochang, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: Now that the adjustment has a certain effect, the stock of fertile sows is being adjusted to the normal holding volume in an orderly manner, and it is expected that it may not be adjusted to a suitable level until the first quarter of next year.
Source: CCTV Finance