1.1 Output value scale
From 2012 to 2018, the average output value of China's yellow feather broiler industry was about 90 billion yuan, and in 2019, the output volume of yellow feather broiler chicken in China reached 4.9 billion, the apparent consumption of yellow feather broiler meat was about 6.068 million tons, and the output value of China's yellow feather broiler industry in 2019 was about 121.28 billion yuan.
Figure 1. 2012-2019 broiler industry output value
Source: Brick Agricultural Data Intelligence Terminal
Figure 2. 2012-2019 Yellow Feather Broiler Outflow
Source: Brick Agricultural Data Intelligent Terminal, Poultry Industry Branch of China Animal Husbandry Association
In 2019, due to the impact of the African swine fever epidemic, the scale of pig breeding fell sharply, and broiler breeding increased again. According to the statistics of the Poultry Industry Branch of the China Animal Husbandry Association, 12.2 billion broiler chickens were produced in China in 2019. Among them, there are 4.4 billion white-feathered broilers, 4.9 billion yellow-feathered broilers, and 2.9 billion other broilers (1.8 billion 817 miscellaneous chickens and 1.1 billion layer chickens eliminated).
Figure 3. In 2019, China's broilers came out of the pen structure
Figure 4. The number of yellow feather broilers in China's ancestral and parental generations
China's ancestral and parent generation yellow feather broiler stock since 2017 fell into a low point after opening an upward channel, in 2018 and 2019, the national ancestral chicken stock increased by 3.3% and 14.3% year-on-year, respectively, at the end of 2019 the stock reached 1.43 million sets, a new high since 2014; the parent generation breeder stock increased by 5.2% and 11.6% year-on-year, respectively, and the inventory at the end of 2019 reached 41 million sets, a new high since 2012. In 2020, the national pig inventory is in the process of slow recovery, the demand for poultry meat substitution has been continued, and the output of yellow chicken is expected to increase by more than 15% year-on-year.
1.2 Profit distribution of the industrial chain
The front-end industry of the broiler industry chain includes feed raw material planting, feed processing and organic fertilizer, etc., the middle reaches are the breeding and slaughtering processing links, and the downstream is the terminal consumption link.
Figure 5. Panorama of the broiler industry chain
The large-scale operation of the yellow feather chicken industry started late, and the degree of centralization was relatively low. The degree of marketization and full competition in the yellow feather broiler industry is relatively low, and a large number of free-range farmers have the phenomenon of "high price entry, low price exit", which affects the long-term stability of market supply, resulting in large cyclical fluctuations in the matching of supply and demand in the industry, resulting in large fluctuations in product prices. From 2012 to 2016, the number of large-scale farms with more than 500,000 sets accounted for less than 0.01%, and the industry concentration was low, and it was still in the initial stage of large-scale development.
Yellow feather broiler local chicken breeding resources are abundant, but the lack of unified coordination in the breeding source support, the construction of the breeding system is obviously lagging behind the white feather broiler, and the yellow feather broiler has long been consumed as live chickens, and the breeding profit in the overall industrial chain is higher, followed by breeding profits, the slaughtering and processing of yellow feather broiler chicken is less, but in the past two years, with the development of cold chain transportation and cold fresh preservation technology, some brands of yellow feather chilled chicken have a higher premium.
In recent years, due to the impact of the epidemic, many local markets have closed live poultry market transactions, and the processing links of the yellow feather broiler industry chain have been further extended and developed, but the long-term breeding and slaughtering of yellow feather broiler chickens is mainly based on live chickens, which is difficult to change in a short period of time, and it is necessary to further improve the standards of more standardized breeding and the degree of large-scale breeding.
2.1 Distribution of output in major producing countries
In 2019, the world's main chicken producers are the United States, China, Brazil, the European Union, Russia, etc., with the United States chicken production of 19.8 million tons ranking first, while China surpassed Brazil and the European Union with 13.8 million tons of chicken production.
Figure 6. Global chicken production distribution in 2019 and 2009
2.2 Distribution of output in the main producing provinces
The main poultry production areas in China are Liaoning, Shandong, Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian and Anhui. According to data from the China Animal Husbandry Association, the first place in the broiler area is the Shandong broiler chicken output of 2.21 billion; followed by Guangdong, the number of broiler chickens is 1.48 billion; the third is Fujian, the number of broiler chickens is 1.43 billion.
Figure 7. Distribution of poultry meat production in China in 2018
Yellow feather broiler breeding is widely distributed in most areas of China, and the overall southern breeding volume is large. Guangdong and Guangxi are the first and second provinces in China's yellow feather broiler production, and secondly, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui also have larger yellow feather broiler production and consumption markets, while the northern region has relatively little production and consumption of yellow feather broiler chicken due to consumption habits and other reasons.
2.3 Production distribution of main producing counties
According to the statistics of poultry production in various provinces and cities in 2019, the major broiler breeding counties in China are more distributed in Shandong, Fujian, Guangdong and other places.
Figure 8. The situation of the main poultry meat producing counties in China
2.4 Major enterprises
Stimulated by the large number of poultry meat replacement pork consumption in 2019-2020, the sales volume of listed enterprises in 2020 has increased to varying degrees, and Wen's shares have also become the first enterprise in China to produce more than 1 billion broiler chickens per year. The data shows that the market share of yellow feather broiler chickens of Wen's shares and Lihua shares accounts for about 27%.
Figure 9. In 2020, the number of broiler breeding enterprises in China will be reported
Source: Brick Agricultural Data Intelligent Terminal, Company Announcement
3.1 Consumption Structure
From 2012 to 2019, the consumption of yellow feather broiler chickens in China fluctuated between 4.9 million tons and 5.8 million tons. In the past two years, China's broiler industry has basically shaken off the impact of the H7N9 influenza epidemic, consumption has stabilized and rebounded, and production and prices have achieved double growth. At the same time, affected by the low supply and demand effect of African swine fever on the domestic pork market, the overall broiler industry maintained a high boom. At present, China's total chicken consumption has become saturated, and end-product innovation may be the main driving factor driving the moderate growth of chicken consumption.
Figure 10. Apparent consumption of domestic yellow feather broilers in 2012-2019
Data source: Brick agricultural data intelligent terminal, apparent consumption = output + import volume - export volume
Figure 11. Consumption mode of yellow feather broiler chicken in China
Data source: Brick Agricultural Data Intelligent Terminal, Industrial Information Network
Unlike white feather broilers who mainly enter fast food consumption and industrial and mining enterprise canteens in the form of white strips or divided products after slaughter, the proportion of yellow feather broilers processing in China is low, and most of them enter the terminal of household consumption through live chicken trading in the live poultry market, in 2014, the consumption of live chicken products in China accounted for about 85%, while the consumption of fresh chicken products accounted for only about 5%, and the consumption of other ways accounted for about 10%.
3.2 Per capita consumption trends and comparisons with major countries
Globally, the regional pattern of chicken meat production and consumption is relatively stable, and most of the chicken meat consumption countries are also large producers, which can basically meet the needs of self-production and self-sales. But Japan is the exception, with about 2.82 million tons of chicken consumption in 2019, but the output is not in the top ten producing countries for chicken meat production, which means that more than a quarter of Japan's chicken meat needs to be imported.
Figure 12. Top 10 countries in global chicken consumption
Source: Zhiyan Consulting
For a long time, China's per capita chicken consumption has been low. In 2012, China's per capita chicken consumption was about 10 kg. The per capita chicken consumption in the United States is about 42 yuan / kg, which is 4 times that of China; the per capita chicken consumption in Russia is 23 kg, which is twice that of China, and China's per capita chicken consumption is at a low level in the world.
Since 2015, China's per capita chicken consumption has increased year by year. In 2019, China's per capita chicken consumption reached 12.01 kg, an increase of 14% over 10.5 kg in 2018. The main reason is that African swine fever has led to a significant reduction in pork production, chicken has filled the gap in pork consumption by about 22-25%, while the impact of the avian influenza epidemic in recent years has been significantly reduced, which has enhanced the willingness of chicken consumption. Although China's per capita chicken consumption increased in 2019, there is still a certain gap compared with developed countries, such as the per capita consumption of the United States of 46 kg, the European Union 22 kg, Japan 40 kg and Taiwan 30 kg, Chinese mainland chicken consumption is still at a low level, chicken consumption has great potential to rise.
In 2021, as pig production capacity continues to recover, poultry consumption substitution will be suppressed, and consumption growth will slow down. Due to the increased risk of external imports of the epidemic, it is expected that poultry meat imports will decrease significantly in 2021, and export volumes will rise slightly.
4.1 Import Situation
The source countries of China's poultry meat imports are mainly Brazil and the United States, accounting for 45.19% and 26.79% respectively. China's imported broilers are mostly white feather broilers, imported chicken products are mainly chicken wings, chicken feet, chicken wings imports account for about 44% of China's total chicken meat imports, chicken feet account for about 32%.
Figure 13. Poultry meat imports in 2020
Data source: Brick Agricultural Data Intelligent Terminal, General Administration of Customs
4.2 Export Situation
70% of China's poultry meat exports flow to Hong Kong, and the exports are mostly white feather broiler segments, and the export volume of yellow feather broilers is small.
Figure 14. Poultry meat exports in 2020
5.1 Price Volatility Analysis
There is a clear cyclical phenomenon in domestic broiler prices, usually a cycle of three years. The current round of chicken cycle began in 2016, and after 2018, the industry's prosperity accelerated. There are two main reasons for the formation of this cycle: First, the supply side is affected by the restriction of the introduction of ancestral chickens. After 2016, there was avian influenza in the United States, which led to customs closures, making the introduction of ancestral chickens in China continue to be sluggish. Second, the price of pork has risen after 2018, which has stimulated the demand for chicken. The two aspects work together to form this round of super chicken cycle.
Figure 15. Yellow-feathered broiler price trend
Source: Xinmu Network
In 2019, the price boom of yellow feather broiler chicken reached a new high, the price of medium-speed yellow feather broiler chicken reached 25 yuan / kg, and the price of yellow feather broiler chicken entered a cyclical downward channel in 2020. In recent years, the price of yellow feather broiler chicken has fluctuated more sharply, and the two obvious falls in 2013 and 2017 were affected by avian influenza, during which the price of poultry products was frustrated across the board. With the gradual reduction of production capacity in the industry, the price of yellow feather broiler chicken was relatively booming in 2018, and after entering the peak season in 2019, it rose rapidly and hit a record high driven by pig prices. Under the impact of the new crown epidemic in 2020, the live poultry market was closed, chicken consumption was impacted, and the industry was greatly expanded in the early stage, and the price cycle of yellow feather broiler chickens declined. In 2021, the price of yellow feather broiler chicken continued to decline unchanged, but due to the high price of a large number of pigs in 1-3 months to promote the substitution consumption of chicken meat, the price of yellow feather broiler chicken rose in stages, but the overall space for growth was limited, and it did not reach the previous high price level in 2019. In the later period, with the recovery of pig production capacity, pig prices fell, and it is expected that the overall price of yellow feather broiler chicken will continue to be weak and downward in 2021.