Cotton Network Comments| The Curtain On Xinjiang's Acquisitions Falls These situations deserve deep consideration

China Cotton Network Special News: The annual Xinjiang seed cotton acquisition curtain slowly fell, cotton farmers' money bags finally bulged, in the context of this year's sharp rise in cotton prices, there have been some new changes in the Xinjiang cotton market, which is impressive.

Cotton farmers have fought a beautiful turnaround battle

How good the farmers' cotton planting income this year is, the official gave an authoritative answer. On November 10, the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region held a special cotton press conference in Urumqi to introduce the development of Xinjiang's cotton industry, and this year's cotton output in Xinjiang is expected to reach about 5.2 million tons, affected by the high price of the cotton market, the average net income of cotton per mu exceeds 1500 yuan. The average net income per mu reached 1500 yuan, which is also a very high year in the entire history of cotton cultivation in China. Xinjiang is sparsely populated, many farmers have a cotton planting area of more than 100 mu, and a small number of large households have a cotton planting area of thousands of mu of land. If the yield of cotton in Xinjiang is 5.2 million tons, the net income of cotton farmers in Xinjiang has reached 7.8 billion yuan.

It is understood that Xinjiang is rich in cash crop resources, tomatoes, peppers, sugar beets, dates, apples and other planting areas are wide, but in terms of income, cotton is worthy of envy of other varieties. A local cotton farmer in Aksu said: "This year's seed cotton purchase price reached more than 10.5 yuan / kg, the price reached the psychological expectations, and I am very satisfied with this year's income."

Scarce cotton is finally favored

"Things are more precious than rare, and affection is more kind because of old age." In previous years, the price of seed cotton was also 6-7 yuan / kg, and this year the price rose to 10-11 yuan / kg, an increase of more than 60%. In the context of the obvious rise in cotton prices, the phenomenon of waste has been well contained, which is the power of the market.

The cotton harvesting work in northern Xinjiang is close to the end, many cotton fields have begun to pick twice, and when the price was low in previous years, most cotton farmers gave up the second picking work, only because they could not meet the cost of picking, and the value and significance of the second harvest could not be reflected. This year is different, most cotton farmers plan to harvest two, driven by high prices, the economic value of the second harvest has been well reflected.

Friends who have been to Xinjiang must be very clear about whether the cotton field has experienced secondary mining operations, after all, the intuitive performance is still relatively obvious. In the face of nature's gifts, sometimes human beings are too generous and should be cherished, after all, this is the result of hard work.

Significantly improved machine yield Hand-picked cotton is rapidly reduced

The wheels of the times roll in and do not change by the will of man. In the past two years, the proportion of machine mining in Xinjiang has risen faster than imagined. Five years ago, professionals were still discussing how to increase the proportion of machine production in Xinjiang, listing many difficult conditions, such as the small plot of land in southern Xinjiang, which is not conducive to large-scale mechanized operations, and of course, there are many other restrictions. Looking back now, northern Xinjiang has already achieved 100% machine mining, and the proportion of machine mining in southern Xinjiang has reached more than 60%, which is related to land circulation and epidemic in recent years, and land concentration and personnel flow restrictions have forced cotton farmers to choose machine mining.

In addition, the price attraction, Xinjiang artificial flower picking cost in 2.2 yuan / kg, machine mining cost in 0.6 yuan / kg, the difference between the two 1.6 yuan / kg, the actual machine cotton and hand pick cotton delivery price difference is also within 1.0 yuan / kg. Moreover, the water content of machine cotton picking is large, and the same cotton area has more advantages in picking weight. Under the condition of obvious comprehensive advantages, cotton farmers are also more willing to accept machine mining. The once mighty flower pickers' train has become a picture in historical memory.

Instead of processing cotton, ginning companies sold cotton

In the impression, the ginning enterprises gave up the main business of cotton processing, but instead started the business of selling seed cotton. This year's purchase period cotton price jumped to more than 22,000 yuan / ton, even if there is a slight correction in the middle, the amplitude is very limited, continue to run at a high level, and the current price of cotton is also at a historical high. Under such circumstances, the acquisition of processed cotton by ginning enterprises is like being involved in a very risky gamble, and a little carelessness may face huge losses.

Under such risks, ginning companies with vast cotton-growing land have begun to sell seed cotton, and this year there are many such phenomena. In order to compete for resources, some ginning enterprises in Xinjiang have long begun to lay out land resources to plant their own cotton, so that they can well control the quality and price of seed cotton, and improve the processing quality and final income of lint cotton. This year, the income from planting cotton on the land is considerable, calculated on the scale of 10,000 mu of land, the income from cotton planting alone has reached 15 million yuan. According to the author's understanding, the scale of enterprise land parcels is very large, as little as tens of thousands of mu, more than hundreds of thousands of mu, or even millions of mu, even if the own gin factory does not buy cotton, the income from planting cotton alone can also cover the operating costs of the ginning plant. Furthermore, the sale of seed cotton is a definite gain, while processed lint cotton faces great risks in its sale. The two rights are more important than each other, and after the comparison, the gin factory has actually made a wiser choice.

The current basis of cotton is at an all-time high

This year, the average cost of cotton in Xinjiang should be about 23,000 yuan / ton, and now the futures price is 21,500 yuan / ton, the difference between the two is 2,000 yuan / ton, and the disk needs to give hedging profits a large increase. At present, the state's position of regulating the cotton market is firm, from July this year to the current stage, the total number of auction transactions in the rotation plus the release has been more than 1 million tons, and the future market will adjust the number of releases at any time according to the price situation, which undoubtedly forms a strong pressure on the disk. Cotton prices will still carry the weight forward in the future.

As the world's most important central bank, the Federal Reserve has said that it has reduced the scale of bond purchases, which means that monetary policy has peaked, and it is difficult for cotton prices to continue to hit new highs in the process of gradually closing the water. If Zheng Cotton Plate noodles do not give hedging profits, the risk of cotton purchased at high prices by enterprises is huge. Without risk hedging, it means losing the initiative and cutting the meat on the board. Compared with cotton farmers, one is heaven on earth and one is in the underground abyss.

At the end of the article, the author still continues to prompt the risk, proud can not forget, this year it is the turn of the majority of cotton farmer friends to turn over, the next year do not know who will be the turn. Don't be depressed when you are pessimistic, plan ahead when you are happy, and do a good job of warning in good times, in order to sail for a long time in the market wind and waves.