What is news? According to the popular words of the journalism teacher, "Dogs bite people is common sense, and 'people bite dogs' is news." Of course, here we are only borrowing from the expression, not the definition of news.
Since the beginning of this year, there have been legends that Honduras, a "country with diplomatic relations with Taiwan" in Central America, will in the future "sever diplomatic relations" with Taiwan and establish diplomatic relations with the mainland. I also talked about this a few days ago. However, the sudden change of events, Honduran President Hernandez made a surprise visit to Taiwan on the 13th of this month.
According to Taiwan's "Central News Agency" reported on the 12th, Taiwan's "Ministry of Foreign Affairs" announced on the same day that Hernandez and his wife arrived in Taiwan for 3 days at the invitation of the Taiwan authorities and accompanied by 11 officials, including Foreign Minister Hong Rosales, and expressed their sincere welcome to this. Hernandez will meet with Tsai Ing-wen on 13 July to congratulate each other on the 80th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations, and will also witness Rosales accepting the "Grand Star Medal" awarded by the Taiwan authorities and visiting the Central American Bank's office in Taiwan.
The Honduran election is approaching, and on November 28, the president's visit to Taiwan cannot but be said to be "man biting a dog".
What everyone is concerned about is whether the "friendship" between Honduras and Taiwan will survive. Is there any possibility of Honduras establishing diplomatic relations with Chinese mainland in the future?
First, the visit of the President of Honduras to Taiwan does not mean that relations between Hongduran and Taiwan are very good. In recent years, Honduras has strobe and Taiwan "broken off diplomatic relations" red lights. For six consecutive years, he has not supported Taiwan's membership in the UNITED Nations system in a public statement to the General Assembly; incumbent President Hernandez has publicly stated that the growing influence of the Chinese mainland in Central America is an opportunity for everyone on the ground. In a televised address in May, he said Honduras or Chinese mainland opened a "business office." These statements have made Taiwan restless.
Second, the current president of Hong May have personal interests and seek taiwan. According to reports, this trip is Hernandez's fourth "visit" to Taiwan, and his three children are also currently working or studying in Taiwan. Before the visit, Hernandez also announced on Twitter that he would go to Taiwan at the invitation of the leader of the Taiwan region, saying that he would personally thank "the Taiwan side for its support to the honduran people", and Hernandez also attached a photo of him and Tsai Ing-wen. Although hernandez's children's work in Taiwan has not seen more detailed reports, it is not difficult for anyone who knows a little about honduras and a little understanding of Taiwan's "golden dollar" diplomatic tradition and style to judge what kind of "work" his children are engaged in. Before Hernandez stepped down, he could obtain Taiwan's commercial "care" for his children under the premise of claiming to consolidate the friendship between Hongtai and Taiwan.
Third, the united States cannot be ruled out. According to Honduran media reports, Hernandez visited the United States on November 10 to report to the US side on the achievements of his administration and "thank the international community for its support for the development of Honduras during his tenure." The report pointed out that after the end of the activities to the United States, Hernandez will go to the Taiwan region. The United States is very unimpressed with Castro Jr., who may be elected president of Honduras, and the United States is also well aware that Castro Jr. may establish diplomatic relations with Chinese mainland after his election, so letting Hernandez visit Taiwan set up obstacles for the new president to develop Sino-Hong kong relations.
Fourth, Tsai Ing-wen is betting on a future return to politics for Elders. According to the Constitution of Honduras, President Hong's term of office is 4 years and he cannot be re-elected. This stipulation made the replacement of the honduran president very frequent, but the various factions in Hong's political structure had limited power and influential figures, so Taiwan envisioned that even if President Hong Xin "broke diplomatic relations" with Taiwan, it was hoped that Hernandez would be able to overturn the situation in the general election four years later, and then he could recount the "friendship" of Hongtai. In fact, Tsai Ing-wen forgot that Hernandez expressed his hope to set up a "business office" in Beijing in May this year. Moreover, the people of Honduras have seen the development and prosperity brought to the Economy of Saudi Arabia by the frequent commercial exchanges between neighboring El Salvador and Chinese mainland after the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries.
Fifth, Hernandez's visit may also be difficult to prevent Honduras from establishing diplomatic relations with Chinese mainland. Honduras, one of the least developed countries in South America, saw its GDP fall by 9 percent last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to its Ministry of Finance. Due to the continued inflation of debt, coupled with the impact of the epidemic on the economy, polls show that honduras residents generally support the Honduran main left opposition party, the Freedom and Reconstruction Party, which describes itself as a "socialist party of the 21st century". The party's leader, Manuel Celaya, said on Sept. 6 that if the party wins the November presidential election, the party will seek to "readjust" the country's debt and establish diplomatic relations with China. Castro, the most competitive presidential candidate today, is Zelaya's wife.
Therefore, no matter how much the Taiwan authorities struggle with "diplomacy," Tsai Ing-wen, the broom star of diplomacy, can only allow more countries to "break diplomatic relations" with them, not to mention that there is more than one case of "breaking diplomatic relations" on the front foot and the back foot in history.