First, the output has grown steadily. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September, the output of alumina, electrolytic aluminum and aluminum was 58.84 million tons, 29.15 million tons and 44.78 million tons, respectively, an increase of 7.6%, 7.2% and 10.7% respectively, and an average growth rate of 2.9%, 5.1% and 8.8% in the two years.
Second, aluminum ingot inventories have declined. According to the statistics of industry analysis agencies, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in late September was 820,000 tons, fluctuating within the normal level range, down 34% from the high point of the year.
Third, prices have risen sharply. According to the statistics of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, since the beginning of this year, the price of aluminum has risen sharply, with the average spot price of 18491 yuan / ton from January to September, an increase of 32.5% year-on-year, and the spot price of 23410 yuan / ton on September 13, a new high in the past 15 years.
Fourth, the decline in bauxite and alumina imports narrowed, and aluminum exports increased. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, from January to September, bauxite and alumina (physical volume) imported 81.532 million tons and 2.694 million tons respectively, down 7.2% and 9.4% year-on-year, and the decline was narrowed by 0.8 and 1.5 percentage points compared with January to August; aluminum scrap imports were 636,000 tons, an increase of 0.6% year-on-year; and unwrought aluminum imports were 1.917 million tons, an increase of 12.9% year-on-year. From January to September, aluminum exports were 3.943 million tons, an increase of 16.1% year-on-year.
Since October, aluminum prices have risen first and then fallen, and in the middle of the month, Shanghai aluminum once touched 24,800 yuan / ton, the main reason is that with the approaching of the heating season and the Winter Olympics, the reduction of production suspensions may be further expanded, and the supply of many places in the case of power shortage is tightening; the second is that the price of coal-power linkage superimposed alumina and other cost-side prices has soared, pushing up aluminum prices all the way. However, with the heavy blow of thermal coal regulation, the price of thermal coal futures has fallen continuously, and aluminum varieties with obvious energy attributes have also been implicated and have gone down all the way.
Domestic supply may tighten
After the National Day, Qinghai, Liaoning and other places have been affected by the pressure of power supply, and there have been news of reducing production and production. On October 21, Guizhou Province required electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the province to strictly implement the staggered peak power consumption plan, reduce electricity consumption by more than 20% per day from now on, and withdraw all production capacity within 5 days. Considering that guizhou electrolytic aluminum operating capacity of 1.3 million tons, if it is completely stopped according to the requirements, it will have a greater impact on the industry. With the advent of the heating season and the Winter Olympics, the relevant industries in various places began to regulate production, Yunnan, Guangxi and other places may continue to increase due to the shortage of power supply during the dry period, Shanxi and other places issued relevant industry production restriction measures, it is expected that before the end of the heating season, the supply side will tighten in November.
Overseas supply is constantly disrupted
Affected by the global energy crisis, electricity prices continue to soar, subject to cost pressures, European aluminum plants have begun to reduce production, of which the Netherlands Aldel smelter announced the suspension of production until the beginning of next year, Slovenia's Tallum and Slovakia's Slovalco also reduced production by 50% and 10% respectively, or will affect the fourth quarter of 40,000-50,000 tons of production. With the crisis of lack of coal, gas and electricity, the risk of production cuts by aluminum companies in India, the United States and other places is also rising, and the scale of subsequent overseas production cuts is at risk of expansion.
Alumina prices remain high
According to customs data, in September, China imported 361,400 tons of alumina, an increase of 1.89% year-on-year and a month-on-month decline of 8.31%. In September, exports of alumina were about 0.36 million tons, down 13.26% year-on-year and 40.51% month-on-month. The overseas alumina market continues the previous situation, one is that the Jamalco alumina plant with an annual production capacity of 1 million tons has been shut down due to fire, and the other is that alcoa's Alumina alumina plant in mid-July has reduced production by one-third due to technical problems, affecting an annual production capacity of about 1.2 million tons, and the two alumina plants cannot predict the resumption time in the short term. The impact of the decline in overseas alumina production can also be seen from the month-on-month decline in alumina imports in September, and the disturbance is expected to continue until November.