In Lukou New Town, the "chief airport plate of Nanjing", there is a group of "eleven arhats".
In December 2001, a movie called "Eleven Arhats" was released in the United States. It tells the wonderful story of eleven high-skilled rogues led by Danny, who after careful planning in Las Vegas, "robbed" the casino of the big boss of the love enemy, and only asked for his ex-wife Tess to change his mind.
With a huge superstar lineup, interlocking plots, and superb acting skills, the film was nominated for Best Foreign Film at the 28th César Awards in French Cinema. However, in Uncle Fang's view, Lukou New Town, which now gathers 11 real estate scuffles, is also staging a plot that is very similar to "Eleven Arhats".
Male owner: Lukou 11 projects for sale and for sale
Hostess: A customer who once lined up to grab a house
"May I ask the director, what should be the next step in the plot of this strongest meat grinder in Lukou?"
(i)
Some people say that the biggest keyword in the Nanjing property market this year is "breaking the limit".
From the south of the city to the north of the city, from Xianlin to Jiangbei, and then to Jiangxinzhou Furen Island, the new market has broken through the limit price again and again, constantly refreshing the ceiling record. The "floor price" at the bottom of the Nanjing housing price pyramid has risen a lot compared with last year.
According to the logic of this "peripheral forcing the core", the next round of price increases in Nanjing seems to be coming vigorously again.
So, let's look back at Lukou New City, which has fully stood at the intersection of breaking the limit, what position is it in the just demand camp of Nanjing's great outer ring road (including satellite city)?
Liuhe has 15,000 high-rises (18,000 bungalows), 16,000 Lishui, 17,000 Longtan, and Lukou, which took just over a year to jump to the 19,000-20,000 mark. As a result, many people are sighing: "Lukou house is a bit expensive this year!" ”
Is the house in Lukou expensive? Let's look at the other three representative "competitors" satellite city plate.
1, the development time is earlier, the basic life supporting more mature Banqiao New City, a certain place Wang New Pan wind 29,000 / ㎡. The disadvantage is that there is no subway in the short term to cash in.
2, at present, Qiaolin New Town, which is still in the era of resettlement housing, is about to enter the market for the first commercial housing project jointly developed by 3 housing enterprises. The industry is expected to be "priced at no less than 20,000", and the advantage of the plate is that Metro Line S3 has been put into operation and has a total of five stations.
3, a corner of the security, but also in the noisy Jiangning Riverside, the only king of the pure new disk is Luneng Silicon Valley Mansion (Luneng Silicon Valley Mansion _ Real Estate Details - Nanjing Mobile Phone Sohu Focus Network). The floor price reached 11,077 yuan / ㎡, and the land had not been listed for two years. After Longhu took land across the street from Luneng, the floor price plummeted by more than 6300 overnight. However, the fastest listing time will be next year, and the average price is expected to hit 20,000.
Therefore, the land price "flour" has dropped, and the house price "bread" in Nanjing may not necessarily fall. When you understand this pricing logic, you will suddenly find that The pile of "flour" in Lukou is more than 10,000 yuan, strictly speaking, it is 11,000-13,000/㎡ floor price of high-priced land projects, and the average price of rough after entering the market is only sold to 18,000/㎡ (small high-rise) -21,000/㎡ (multi-storey bungalows), how depressed and helpless it should be!
To be fair, if it were not for the weakening of Lukou's second-hand upside-down dividend in recent years, and the slowdown in the introduction of a large number of foreign populations in the short term, they would have been fiercely selling. In addition, the head of a new batch of plates is still limited, and the sword of Damocles is hanging high. Even if the price limit is "relaxed", it is necessary to consider the market water temperature, and it is necessary to leave a little room for buyers to make profits.
It can be seen that for a long time to come, Lukou will firmly hold the red line of about 20,000 house prices floating up and down. Some high-priced land projects have even made up their minds: appropriately reduce profits for price for volume, compete closely with product strength and cost performance, and only seek "early liquidation and early exit".
"More monks and less porridge", "See who runs fast", "Get out early after selling". This is a real version of Battle Royale.
(ii)
To this day, Uncle Fang has never been able to forget: the "ten thousand yuan disk" era when more than 8,000 people lined up to grab the house in Lukou. Because after that, the just-needed position with an average price of 10,000 yuan in Nanjing basically declared "the fall of the whole line.".
At the beginning of this year, that is, on January 11, the old pan Cuiping City announced the end of "daylight". More than 700 houses attracted 8,180 groups of customers to sign up, and the winning rate was only 8.7%. At this point, the average price of "Lao Lukou Bottom Reading" has been forever fixed at 12218 yuan / ㎡, and the 30% down payment is only 320,000 yuan. This is also the last "king explosion" in Recent Years.
By the way, there is also a Lukou 10,000 yuan disk, the airport construction and development of the Blue Sky Star Harbor (Blue Sky Star Harbor _ Real Estate Details - Nanjing Mobile Phone Sohu Focus Network). The average price sold to 17,000 yuan / ㎡, in fact, can not be regarded as a "ten thousand yuan disk" in the strict sense. At present, it is also in the closing stage, and the total price of the final listing is about 2.10-2.26 million.
Then, it is the turn of the main force of Lukou New House, that is, the protagonist of this article, Tiantuan, to play: Lukou's "Eleven Arhats". They are:
1, Evergrande Linxi County (Evergrande Linxi County_ Real Estate Details - Nanjing Mobile Phone Sohu Focus Network), has entered the market at the end of October. At present, small high-rise and bungalows are for sale, with units of 113 square meters and 121 square meters. Among them, the average sales price of small high-rise is 18500 yuan / ㎡, and the average price of bungalow sales is 21500 yuan / ㎡.
2, Red Bean Xiangjiang Huating, has entered the market in early November. At present, bungalows and small high-rise buildings for sale, rough delivery, the unit type is about 79 ㎡, 85 ㎡, 110 ㎡, the sales price is 19198-21856 yuan / ㎡.
3, red beans Xiangjiang Huafu, to enter the market. 30 residential buildings are planned. On March 31, 2017, after 67 rounds of bidding, it was won by Hongdou Real Estate with a total price of 1.56 billion yuan, with a floor price of 12846 yuan / ㎡, which needs to be sold in existing houses.
4, Zhonghai Yunlu Mansion, is expected to enter the market as soon as the end of this year. It is proposed to build 9 to 11 storey small high-rise rough products, a total of more than 600 sets. The unit type is 80㎡ two-bedroom (2+1), 96㎡ three-bedroom (3+1), 118㎡ four-bedroom. "You might push all the buildings at once."
5, Hechang Greenland Xinyue Bay, only 3 low-density residential buildings, unit type 83-107 ㎡. Among them, Building 1 is 10-11 floors, and Building 2 and 3 is 7 floors. On March 31, 2017, the floor price was 12459 yuan / ㎡. Existing house for sale.
6, Blue Sky Huirong Garden, 18 small high-rise buildings under construction, with a total construction scale of about 120,000 square meters. Note: The floor price of the land obtained by the project in 2015 was only 4777 yuan / ㎡.
7, Zhongjun Rongxin Yongjingtai, is expected to open the first residential products in December, the latest wind price of 21,000-22,000 / ㎡. The overall area section covers 88㎡, 108㎡, 129㎡.
8, Yunxi JingYuan, to create 23 small high-rise buildings, is expected to have more than 1,000 sets of goods. The fastest will be in December to enter the market, the apartment area section of about 85-122 square meters, hardcover delivery.
9, Ruyi County, to build 11 10-storey small high-rise buildings, an area of 78 square meters, 90 square meters, 108 square meters. It is expected to enter the market as soon as December and belongs to the central area of Lukou New Town (Ruyi Lake Plate).
10, Zhongjun Hejing Baijing Bay, apartment area of about 85-108 square meters, is expected to open for the first time in December. It belongs to the central area of Lukou New Town (Ruyi Lake Plate).
11, Aoyuan Jinji Tianju is still living, is expected to open seven buildings in December, a total of 512 units, the apartment area of 85-118 square meters. It belongs to the central area of Lukou New Town (the easternmost point of the Ruyi Lake Plate).
Through the above combing, it is not difficult for us to find that many new disks in Lukou are just needed for "flattery", and the starting apartment type is getting smaller and smaller. For example, this one made 85 square meters, and the competitors next door made 80 square meters, or even 78 square meters, in order to minimize the total price threshold. However, it should be noted that the existing 11 new projects for sale and for sale in Lukou (whether in the central area or not) are expected to maintain an overall average price pace of 19,000-21,000/㎡ . This is also the tone of plate pricing that will continue into the first half of 2020.
However, we must also clearly see a fact: the second-hand houses in the Lukou plate have not changed much in the past two years. At present, the average transaction price is only about 16,000-18,000 /㎡. Among them, the two second-hand head communities of China Merchants Evian County and Landsea Youth Block have an average listing price between 19,000-21,000 /㎡ . This means that when the new plate army has risen to the threshold of about 20,000, the former upside-down stimulus of Lukou's second-hand house has "almost completely disappeared".
You know, the huge first-hand and second-hand upside down is one of the key points that leveraged the purchasing power of Lukou investment in that year. Especially in the context of the reality of "oversupply" of the local self-occupied guest group, the grand situation of thousands of people queuing up at Lukou is really gone?
In other words, how do the eleven arhats "grab back" more customers? Let them turn their eyes back to Lukou?
(iii)
After waiting for nearly 2 years, the Lukou "Eleven Arhats" large army with an inventory of nearly one million square meters was finally ready to ship.
To tell the truth, although Evergrande and Hongdou have been listed first, they are more general in color.
Next, there are Also Zhonghai, Hechang Greenland, China SCE Rongxin, China SCE Hejing, Sanxun, Jinji Aoyuan, Kaisa Hongyang and other plots have appeared one after another, and more than 2,000 units are expected to be listed.
Such a large inventory is a bit of a "long-distance" satellite city plate. To tell the truth, this kind of close hand-to-hand combat + high-priced blowout listing is very rare in the history of Jiangning property market. "It can almost be called a tragic meat grinder."
No wonder, some insiders joked that the Lukou market may be dried into a scorched earth, which can be called the most terrifying real estate sector in Nanjing in recent years. At the same time, we call on the developers of Lukou to quickly crowdfund a famous school!
However, if you look at it from the perspective of the long-term digestion of "time for space", first-line brand housing enterprises like Evergrande still have regional head advantages. If after the end of the strong sales period, continue to carpet actively grab customers, squeeze the sales space of competitive products, I believe that in the next sales period can also be completed in small steps to complete digestion.
As for the Lukou G23 plot won by the central enterprise Zhonghai for 730 million yuan in 2017, which is today's Yunlu Mansion. The floor price is 11199 yuan / ㎡, and it is required to sell existing houses. Previously, it was reported that the overall value of the project was about 1.4 billion. It is said that the first opening is expected to launch all of the more than 600 units at one time, and it will end after opening. Therefore, the customer storage period has been extended repeatedly, and the latest release of the market entry node is scheduled to be before the end of the year. ”
If the news is true, then it means that the Zhonghai Yunlu Mansion may become the most powerful stream in the battle of the Lukou Meat Grinder. After all, 80-118 square meters of high gift area + slim apartment design has a lot of attraction for young customers who pay attention to appearance and room rate.
Compared with the old land kings who were required to sell existing houses, Lukou also had a "high turnover disk" that had been very rapid after taking the land. For example, Yunxi JingYuan, the project is the G12 plot sold in April this year, the floor price is 11535 yuan / ㎡, reaching the maximum price. Initially joined hands with Yuzhou to take the land, and later introduced Kaisa Trading, the product is said to follow the modern Chinese style. "As soon as December first open".
According to FangShu's statistics: In the "Eleven Luohans" in Lukou, there are 6 high-priced plots with flour prices of more than 10,000 yuan, 2 plots with 9,000 flour plots, and 1 plot with 8,000 flour plots and 1 parcel with 7,000 plots of flour. Among them, there are three projects with floor slabs below 10,000 yuan per square meter located around Ruyi Lake in the central area, "due to factors such as limited recognition of the location, it is also the most likely to trigger a fierce price war."
A more critical point, and even a little "terrifying" fact, is that the centralized entry of "Eleven Luohan" today seems to be just a prelude to a new round of shipments in Lukou. Because, Lukou Airport New City will have a large amount of reserve land waiting for listing in the future, and the later stage will be like a blowout land supply of "bamboo tube pouring beans". It is very likely to develop into the "20,000+" just needed town with the largest inventory in Jiangning District in 5 years.
According to the published "Nanjing Lukou New Town Central Area (NJNBh020) Control Detailed Plan", the reserve of Class II residential land is "expected to exceed 100". According to the land supply plan, of the 26 plots of land to be sold in Nanjing before the end of this year, 5 residential plots are located in Lukou. Among them, the G104 plot and the G105 plot located in the central area of Ruyi Lake in Lukou and close to the Xiangyu North Road subway station have both been listed.
Shipment, customer grabbing. Re-ship, re-grab customers. There is no doubt that this will be a protracted and epic battle.
"You can guess the beginning, but you may not guess the end." Eleven arhats, becoming eighteen arhats, is just around the corner.