Logistics and mobility services | finally cross the mountain, follow the trend: investment strategy in 2022

Based on the top-down screening of high-quality targets from the two main lines, one is to reach the price inflection point of Tongda Express and pay attention to the timing of SF configuration. The policy upgrade is the biggest variable that breaks the rolled competition in the express delivery industry and promotes the profitability of the Tongda system. After the throes of capacity launch, SF welcomes the payback period, and it is expected that the company's non-net profit will improve significantly in 2022, and if it breaks the free shipping, it is expected to be the icing on the cake. Second, the travel sector such as aviation and airports is strongly repaired in response to fundamentals. The loosening of the international line is expected to buckle the last key link in the recovery of civil aviation, and the rapid rebound of demand that will benefit from the suppression of the aviation will be superimposed on the limited supply, and the net interest rate will reach the cycle high point in the next two years and the reconstruction of prosperity. In the post-epidemic era, airports will remain a must for tax-free operators, and the recovery of international passenger flows will promote the recovery of bargaining power. Our key recommended targets are: SF Holdings, Zhongtong Express, Air China, Shanghai Airport, Spring Airlines.

First, the Tongda express delivery to meet the price inflection point, it is recommended to pay attention to the timing of SF's configuration. Policy upgrading has become the biggest variable in breaking the rolled competition in the express delivery industry, promoting the profitability of the Tongda system, and continuing to recommend the leading Zhongtong and Yuantong of the Tongda system. After the throes of capacity launch, SF Holdings ushered in a period of return, and it is expected that the company's non-net profit will return to the historical center, and if it breaks the free shipping package, it is expected to be the icing on the cake.

Second, travel-related sectors such as aviation and airports are facing strong fundamental repair. If the loosening of the international line is expected to be the last key link in the recovery of civil aviation, aviation will benefit from the rebound in demand and the limited supply, and the net interest rate is expected to reach the cycle high point and reconstruct the prosperity in the next two years. In the post-epidemic era, airports will continue to be a must for duty-free operators, and the recovery of international passenger flow is expected to promote the recovery of airport bargaining power, while high luxury or create a second growth curve for airport traffic realization.

▍One of the express delivery: If you break the free shipping or SF is the most beneficial, the valuation safety margin is high and the production capacity climbs.

After the painful period, SF Holdings ushered in a period of continuous improvement in performance brought about by capacity climbing, and 2021Q4 entered the upward cycle of capacity climbing, regardless of the merger of Kerry Logistics, and in 2022, SF deducted non-net profit or significantly increased to 5 billion to 6 billion yuan. Short-term cost optimization or since 2021Q4 gradually appeared, is expected to achieve non-net profit of 1.4 to 1.5 billion yuan in the same period, the first time in the year year-on-year positive. The "Zhejiang Express Industry Promotion Regulations" proposes to encourage the provision of personalized and differentiated express delivery service choices, and it is expected that C-end customers of personalized and differentiated express delivery services are willing to pay express delivery fee increments, and the service experience is better, more time-sensitive, network stability, and higher terminal network density. The fixed increase issue price is 57.18 yuan / share, the current valuation margin of safety is high, and the target market value of the next year is estimated to be about 460 billion yuan under the partial valuation method.

▍ Express delivery two: competition returns to service experience, policy is expected to be upgraded again, and Tongda leader welcomes the historic restoration of fundamentals.

Policy-driven e-commerce express price war inflection point is clear, express delivery leader to abandon the practice of profit in exchange for short-term market share growth, and strive for effective express delivery increments, since April, the decline in single ticket revenue has narrowed month by month, it is expected that the net profit of 2021H2 will increase by 12% to 15%, Yuantong or increase by more than 20%, and the fundamentals of tongda are strongly certain. It is expected that the further upgrading of the medium-term policy will break through the bottleneck of industry price transmission, and the future service experience may become the most important competitive means for express delivery companies, we assume that the volume of general shipments will increase to 61.4 billion pieces in 2025, and conservatively predict that the net profit per ticket will be 0.25 yuan, then the net profit of 15.4 billion yuan corresponds to the target market value of ~ 460 billion yuan. At the same time, Jitu acquired the express delivery business of Best China, and the first three companies are expected to benefit from the customer overflow volume in the process of Jitu's integration. Continue to recommend the industry's leading advantages of Zhongtong Express and short-term volume growth continue to lead the way, digital continue to promote the YTO Express.

▍ Aviation: No pole Tai Lai, reconstruct prosperity.

Positive benefits such as covid-19 treatment drugs and increased vaccination rates continue to accumulate, and it is expected that the control of international lines in 2022Q2 may be loosened. Q2 civil aviation demand phased repair to verify the strong resilience of internal demand, look forward to the mass production of therapeutic drugs to bring about a structural inflection point of prevention and treatment combination, 2021Q4 or the eve of the dawn of civil aviation demand. In 2020, the net growth of the domestic airline fleet is only 85, hitting a historical low since 2003, and it is expected that the net growth of the fleet size in 2022 may still be around 80 to 90 aircraft, and the low introduction of industry aircraft may continue until 2023, and the tightening logic of civil aviation supply is determined. Review history After the 2008 financial crisis, civil aviation demand rebounded strongly, if the therapeutic drugs and vaccination rates form an effective defense line for the combination of prevention and treatment, the rapid recovery of suppressed demand in the next two years superimposed on the low introduction of aircraft for 4 to 5 consecutive years or promote the net profit margin of the three major airlines to recover to a high point of 5% to 8% cycle, and the market value under the high beta or more than 1 times the space, the reconstruction of prosperity is approaching. Air China, which is ahead of the three major airlines in terms of triple bottom building, capacity utilization rate and performance flexibility, is strongly concerned about the approaching layout time. At the same time, we continue to recommend Spring Airlines, which is expanding against the trend of the epidemic and is more growing and deterministic.

▍ Airports: Tax-free value returns, opening up a second growth curve.

The monopoly position of hub airports as the main exit ports of the core economic circle is difficult to shake, and the tax-free dividends have been postponed rather than disappeared under the influence of the epidemic, and the airport channels in the post-epidemic era are still a must for duty-free operators. Positive benefits such as covid-19 treatment drugs and increased vaccination rates continue to accumulate, and it is expected that the control of international lines in 2022Q2 may be loosened, and the recovery of international passenger flow will promote the recovery of bargaining power at airports. Taking Shanghai Airport as an example, it is estimated that the company's international passenger traffic in 2021-2025 will be 1.75 million, 26.29 million, 46.37 million, 50.08 million and 53.08 million respectively, corresponding to 520 million, 4.4 billion, 5.7 billion, 6.9 billion and 7.5 billion yuan of tax-free income. The airport has chosen to be deeply bound with duty-free operators, and is expected to achieve 50 billion yuan of duty-free sales in 2025, which is expected to become the largest duty-free channel in the region to solve the diversion risk and provide a basis for the next round of negotiations to obtain a premium. Compared with the representative commercial real estate in the region, the luxury rental effect is much higher than that of ordinary taxable commercials, and it is expected to create the second growth curve of airport traffic realization in the future. Continue to recommend Shanghai Airport, which has a high proportion of international passengers and more flexible tax-free operations, as well as Baiyun Airport, which continues to open up production capacity space and is expected to meet high growth in commercial consumption.

▍Risk Factors:

Macroeconomic growth fell short of expectations; international oil prices climbed sharply; the renminbi depreciated rapidly; the express delivery price war was less than expected; airport tax exemption negotiations were lower than expected; and the global epidemic was less than expected.

▍Investment Strategy:

Top-down screening cycle fundamentals accelerate repair and price inflection point certainty of high-quality targets.

First, the Tongda express delivery to meet the price inflection point, it is recommended to pay attention to the timing of SF's configuration. The policy upgrade is the biggest variable that breaks the rolled competition in the express delivery industry and promotes the profitability of the Tongda system. After the end of the throes of production capacity launch, SF Holdings ushered in a period of return, and it is expected that the deduction of non-net profit will return to the historical center, and if the free shipping is broken, it is expected to be the icing on the cake.

Second, travel-related sectors such as aviation and airports are facing strong fundamental repair. The loosening of the international line is expected to be the last key link in the recovery of civil aviation, and airlines will benefit from the rebound in demand and the limited supply, and it is expected that the net profit margin will reach the cycle high point in the next two years and reconstruct the prosperity. In the post-epidemic era, airports will continue to be a must for duty-free operators, and the recovery of international passenger flow is expected to promote the recovery of bargaining power at airports.

According to the criteria of performance growth and valuation, the listed companies are screened and transported, combined with the industry leader, certain monopoly advantages, steady growth, performance certainty and other criteria, the annual key recommended targets are: SF Holdings, Zhongtong Express, Air China, Shanghai Airport, Spring Airlines.

This article originated from the Financial Circle Network