Recently, in the grain market, in addition to rice, the prices of corn, wheat, and soybeans have performed well, and there has been a pattern of steady rise, especially wheat and soybeans, and the price of grain has risen, and farmers who have not sold grain can earn more. But the market has come here, the market has an early warning, there is a risk of falling back. So what is the current market situation? Can the market still rise in the future? Let's share it with you one by one:
After the harvest of corn autumn grain in 2020, the performance in August and September was not ideal, the national average price has been hovering around 1.35 yuan, even in Shandong has dropped below 1.40 yuan, after entering October, the price has stabilized, and there has been a shock upward, and the market average rose by about 150-200 yuan per ton.
As of November 9, due to the impact of rain and snow weather in the past two days, the door-to-door traffic volume of corn enterprises in Shandong has dropped significantly, and has dropped to about 90 units, resulting in 17 enterprises in Shandong raising their purchase prices, and the average purchase price of enterprises in Shandong is 2866 yuan / ton, up 26.33 yuan from yesterday. In addition to Shandong, 4 enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and one region rose, and 6 enterprises in North China and other regions rose, and the overall corn rally was like a rainbow.
Among them, the top companies are: Zoucheng Xilai rose 3.0 points, the execution price of 1.50 yuan / jin; Hoshi Fufeng rose 3.0 points, 1.35 yuan / jin; Seven Star Lemon rose 2.0 points, 1.495 yuan / jin; Binzhou Jinhui rose 2.0 points, 1.42 yuan / jin; Leling Zhonggu rose 2.0 points, 1.410 yuan / jin; Ningjin Yufeng rose 2.0 points, 1.450 yuan / jin; Longjiang Fufeng rose 2.0 points, 1.170 yuan / jin. For specific quotations, please refer to the attached table:
At present, the trend of the corn market is more in line with the previous market analysis, but I personally believe that the corn rising market space has been very limited, and there is a risk of falling back in late November. Mainly because:
First, after this round of snowfall, the amount of corn will increase, and it is the usual method for processing companies to lower the purchase price.
Second, the current corn price has risen by more than 100 yuan per ton compared with the previous low price, which has reached the psychological price of some farmers, and the amount of corn will increase.
Third, after entering December, the processing enterprises, the financial sector's year-end final accounts, as well as farmers' year-end consumption increase and other factors, there will be a narrowing of tight acquisition of enterprise funds, the expansion of farmers' capital demand and increase the selling pressure, between one reduction and one increase, the risk of corn price decline increases.
Regarding the wheat market, the rise exceeded market expectations, and continued to create highs, on November 8, the purchase price of wheat in Shaanxi Wutory and Jinshahe Flour Mills jumped to 1.48 yuan / catty, and the price of wheat in North China basically entered the era of 1.4 yuan. On November 9, a number of enterprises in the market raised the purchase price of wheat, Qingdao Wutory (White Wheat) purchase price rose by 1 point, the execution price was 1.41 yuan / jin; Liaocheng Huatong Noodle Industry rose by 2 points, 1.43 yuan / jin; Hebei Jinsha Henan hehe company rose 2.5 points, 1.44 yuan / jin; JinshaHe Shahe company rose 2.5 points, 1.44 yuan / jin; jinmalang Longyao company rose 1 point, 1.41 yuan / jin.
The main reasons for the increase in wheat prices are:
First, at present, there are fewer grass-roots wheat grain sources, and since the beginning of the year, the effect of destocking has been remarkable, and the market is generally optimistic about the future market, resulting in rising prices.
Second, recently affected by the rush of flour by residents in some areas, the price of flour has risen, which has pulled the price of wheat.
Third, it has entered the traditional flour consumption season, and many enterprises are preparing for the big consumption market of the New Year's Day spring festival, increasing raw material reserves, and not hesitate to raise prices to buy. It is understood that on November 8, the grain collection and storage company of Qingjian County, Yulin City, Shaanxi Province, plans to purchase 1,000 tons of wheat from county-level reserves (2021 domestic second-class), with a transaction price of 3,140 yuan / ton, which is equivalent to 1.507 yuan / jin, which can be described as a "sky-high price".
At present, the price of wheat has been at a stage of high, and the price of corn to form a certain price inversion situation, in the feed this piece of consumption will be partially withdrawn, corn or will return to feed enterprises, so the future rise in the space has been limited, personally believe that the current is a good time to sell, can choose the price to sell, the bag for safety.
The soybean market continues to rise, and the mainstream price of commodity soybeans has broken through the 3.0 yuan mark. It is understood that on November 9, Heilongjiang Keshan soybean raw grain sold to 2.95 yuan / jin, sieved soybeans 3.05 yuan / jin; Jiamusi gross grain price of 2.9 yuan / jin, outgoing loading price of 3.05 yuan / jin; Hubei Tianmen gross grain price of 3.25 yuan / jin, loading price of 3.45-3.50 yuan / jin. Due to the rise in soybean prices, the recent price of soy products has also appeared to rise, Heilongjiang Suileng local tofu is last week or 4 yuan / block, yesterday has risen to 5 yuan a piece, according to the boss, now coal prices rise, soybean prices rise, can only rise a little.
At present, the price of soybeans is also relatively high, and the risk is increasing. Soybean prices rose, first, because corn prices were high last year, squeezing out part of the soybean area. Second, China's soybean imports are large, greatly affected by the international impact, due to the United States, Brazil and other major soybean producing countries soybean production reduction, soybean prices rose, the domestic soybean prices constitute support.
However, according to the latest news, the United States, Argentina and other countries soybean prices have recently fallen, in the United States Bay, the average spot quotation of soybeans in the United States No. 1 soybeans is $12.4775 per pu ($458.5 per ton), down 15.625 cents / pu from the previous trading day. The FoB spot quote for Upper River Soybeans, offered by Argentina's Ministry of Agriculture, was $523 (including 33% export tax), down $7 from the previous session. Coupled with the current high price of soybeans, the probability of a recent decline in soybean prices is large.
Dear friends, the current corn price has returned to 1.5 yuan for many companies, the mainstream price in Shandong has returned to 1.43 yuan / catty, and the amount of snow after the snow and other factors, the market from late November to January is not optimistic. Wheat and soybean prices have hit new highs, the space for growth has been very limited, the risk is increasing, and it is difficult for the future market to continue to rise.
What do you think? Can food prices continue to rise? Comments are welcome for your information. (Text/Sannong Guangxun)