On November 15 last year, after eight years of negotiations, fifteen RCEP members finally completed the signing of the agreement, but the entry into force of this agreement requires at least 6 ASEAN members and 3 non-ASEAN member countries to ratify, and China, as Asia's largest economy, naturally took the lead and took the lead in completing the agreement approval process in March this year, followed by many countries...
According to CCTV News, on November 2, the ASEAN Secretariat of the RCEP custodian issued a notice announcing that six ASEAN member countries, including Thailand, Singapore, Cambodia, Laos, Brunei and Vietnam, as well as four non-ASEAN member countries such as China, Japan, New Zealand and Australia, have completed the approval process of RCEP and reached the threshold for the agreement to enter into force.
It is understood that the remaining four ASEAN member countries, such as Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines and Indonesia, as well as a non-ASEAN member of South Korea, are also speeding up the approval process of their own domestic RCEP. For example, the Philippines and Myanmar are in the final stages of the ratification process; the Malaysian business community is constantly urging its government to complete the approval by the end of this year; and in early October, South Korea also submitted an RCEP approval motion to The National Assembly.
Obviously, no one wants to miss this dividend, after all, the RCEP is the world's largest existing free trade agreement – these 15 member countries have a population of 2.27 billion, a total economic volume of 26 trillion US dollars (about 166 trillion yuan), and a total export value of 5.2 trillion US dollars (about 33 trillion yuan), accounting for about 30% of the global total.
Once the agreement enters into force, the member countries that have completed the approval process will immediately reduce taxes, open markets, reduce barriers, and eventually achieve zero tariffs on more than 90% of the trade in goods in the world's largest economic circle, which is a great thing for businesses and consumers in various countries, and also a shot in the arm for the global economic recovery.
According to a U.S. report, by 2030, the 15 member countries that have joined the RCEP are expected to see a net increase of $519 billion (about 3.3 trillion yuan) in exports and a net increase in national income of $186 billion (about 1.2 trillion yuan).
It can be said that in the context of the global epidemic and economic downturn, the news that the success of the RCEP customs is about to take effect is simply "a long drought and a sweet rain" for major member countries.
In addition, Japan, which loves comparisons, has estimated that the economic effects of the RCEP agreement will push up the total value of the Japanese economy by 2.7%, surpassing the CPTPP (an upgraded version of the TPP) withdrawn by the United States. However, China also wants to join the CPTPP and has formally submitted an application, and China's accession will strengthen the strength of the agreement; South Korea also said that it will actively consider joining the CPTPP.
Interestingly, there are now no U.S. ftAs in the Asia-Pacific region, and some voices point out that it may sometimes be better without U.S. leadership, because without a lot of uncertainty, the FTA will run more smoothly.
So where should the United States, which kicks away the TPP and has no share in the RCEP, go? In the third quarter of this year, the US economy grew by 2% month-on-month, which was less than expected; the latest SURVEY by US media showed that 65% of Americans believe that the current US economy is very bad, and more than 50% of Americans say that the US economy will continue to deteriorate next year.
In addition to the United States, the most complicated mood now is India, which withdrew from the RCEP at the last minute, but the opportunity is missed and will not come. RCEP is just the beginning, and the future will lead member countries to ride the wind and waves, as the saying goes: go alone fast, and go far.
Text | Li Zejun title | Huang Zi Gallium Figure | Lu Wenxiang | Li Yinsu