The great changes in the world today that have not been seen in a hundred years are accelerating their evolution, and this great change constitutes the international background for China to embark on a new journey of the second centenary goal and realize the Chinese dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. How to understand and grasp this great change and serve well the strategic overall situation of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is a central task of China's foreign work.
Engels pointed out that the whole theory of the proletarian party comes from the study of political economy. Lenin regarded political economy as the "deepest, most comprehensive, and most detailed proof and application" of Marxism. General Secretary Xi Jinping has repeatedly quoted the above theses, emphasizing the importance of studying and applying Marxist political economy. This paper attempts to use the viewpoints and methods of Marxist political economy to sort out and analyze the evolution process of capitalism in Western countries, and on this basis analyze its impact on China's external environment and corresponding countermeasure choices.
The three stages and main characteristics of the evolution of the Western capitalist system
Western capitalism has been developing for hundreds of years and can be roughly divided into three major stages.
The first is the primitive stage of capitalism, also known as the classical capitalist stage. The main feature of this stage is the primitive accumulation of capital. Internally, the bourgeoisie has driven a large number of peasants from their attachment to land into industrial workers by means of "horse racing" and other means, and has also released a large number of land resources for industrial development. Externally, it is mainly to expand the colonies and plunder resources. Capital divides the factors of production into two categories: capital and labor. At that time, the development of capital such as machines other than land was still in its infancy, and the main factors of production were land and labor. Marx's theory of surplus value unveiled the "secrets" and laws of capitalism. Due to the low level of productivity at that time, the main source of profit of the capitalists was to extract surplus value by extending working hours and reducing wages, and a large number of sweatshops appeared.
After the development of capitalism to a certain stage, oligarchies and monopolies appeared, and barbaric aggression and plunder were carried out to obtain excess profits. At the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century, there was the first wave of globalization since the Great Voyage, and capitalism moved towards the stage of imperialism. The imperialist countries fought over colonies and spheres of influence, and the contradictions and struggles within imperialism sowed the seeds of the First World War. Internal exploitation and external aggression are the stage of primitive capitalism and the stage of barbarism.
The second stage is the entry of capitalism into the stage of reformed social-democratic capitalism. The period began in the late 19th and early 20th centuries and continued until the late 1970s and early 1980s. The main characteristics of this stage are the emergence of social democratic ideological trends, and the capitalist countries have successively established social welfare systems to varying degrees. There are three main motives for capitalist reform: First, revolution within capitalist countries. The barbaric growth of capitalism led to the deepening of contradictions between capitalists and the working class, the emergence of the Paris Commune movement and the endless struggle of the working class. The second is two world wars. Capitalist countries want the people to take part in the war, and when they are cannon fodder of war, they must solve their worries. After the war, they also had to be reintegrated into society in order to maintain social stability. The third is external promotion. The rise of the international communist movement and the emergence of socialist countries have created strong reform pressure on capitalism from the outside.
The third stage is the stage of neoliberal capitalism. Its main symbol is that Margaret Thatcher ruled in the United Kingdom and Reagan in the United States, opening a new period of macroeconomic policy adjustment in the United States and Europe. Supply-side schools, monetarism and other theoretical schools have emerged, and tax cuts, deregulation, and government spending reductions have become the mainstream of policy, and the so-called "Washington Consensus" has been formed. Everyone criticized the policy at that time as "robbing the rich and the poor", that is, trying to cut social welfare spending, while reducing taxes and deregulation.
The Reagan administration implemented a policy of drastically reducing personal and corporate taxes, but because the welfare system was mostly rigid, this laid the groundwork for the subsequent high deficit and high debt problems. An important step in Thatcher's rise to power was to suppress trade unions and break their firm grip on political power in British society at the time. Since then, British trade unions, while still alive, have begun to decline as a political force. During this period, Germany also began to carry out reforms of the social welfare system and the labor market system, and the political ecology began to turn to the right.
Two major events occurred internationally during this period, 10 years apart: the drastic changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and China's accession to the WTO in 2001. The drastic changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, especially the disintegration of the Soviet Union, have strengthened the determination of the Chinese Communists to carry out reform and opening up, and have also accelerated the process of China's reform and opening up. Through its own reform efforts, China has begun to actively, gradually and completely integrate into the world economic system, making full use of the changes in the international economy and achieving development in the process of deep integration into globalization.
China has seized the opportunity of this round of globalization and has gradually become the backbone of promoting the in-depth development of globalization. This wave of globalization began in the 1990s and peaked after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. At this time, the world market was already a relatively complete world market, which was globalization in the true sense. At the same time, a new technological revolution has quietly begun. The rise and popularization of information network technology has increasingly profoundly and comprehensively changed the production and lifestyle of human society. Together, these factors ushered in the third climax of globalization.
Materialistic dialectics tells us that things must be reversed. First, the 2008 international financial crisis occurred globally. However, the real, deep-seated, and comprehensive systemic crisis appeared about 10 years later, and economic globalization itself was fundamentally questioned and challenged, and the so-called "anti-globalization", "anti-globalization", "decoupling", "parallel system" and other arguments appeared, and quickly penetrated and spread to the policy level of the world's major developed economies, gradually becoming the new mainstream and political correctness. Why is this happening?
The primary reason is that in the 20 years from 2000 to 2020, the proportion of developed and developing countries in the world economy has undergone earth-shaking changes, rising in the east and falling in the west, rising in the middle and falling in the west. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, this process has accelerated.
From the perspective of developed countries, their economic and social structure has undergone tremendous changes. The main source of the middle class in the United States in the stage of economic expansion is industrial workers, and with the decline of manufacturing and the widening gap between rich and poor, the middle class has gradually shrunk. Inequality in the distribution of wealth in many developed countries is a common phenomenon.
Technological advances have driven changes in the distribution of income and wealth. The world economy has undergone a process of industrial upgrading, from labor-intensive industries to capital-intensive industries. According to traditional classical economics, the factors of production are land, labor, and capital, excluding technical factors. However, the progress of technology has changed the industrial structure, format and growth momentum of Western developed countries, and technology as an independent variable plays an increasingly important role in economic growth. As a result, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the International Labour Organization, the proportion of labour in the primary income distribution is generally declining in developed countries.
Important changes have taken place in the way wealth is created. Contemporary capitalism is shifting from financial capitalism as its most important feature to financial capital and technological elites co-dominating, and those who master technology and can build platforms have become the most rapid group of people to become rich. With the widespread application of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, labor and value creation are increasingly disconnected, growth and employment are increasingly disconnected, and inequalities in wealth distribution will become increasingly serious, which will lead to social differentiation continuing and accelerating development.
The second reason is economic globalization. Trade in goods in the early days of globalization led to the beginning of the global layout of production, which meant that the factors of production were allocated globally and the pricing was no longer determined by one country. Economics believes that prices are determined by margins, and that the development of globalization has gradually equalized the prices of factors of production and commodities, including labor, on a global scale. The stagnation of wage growth in developed countries is directly related to the equalization of prices of factors of production resulting from globalization. In addition, China has broken the monopoly of developed countries in many industries, developed countries no longer have sole pricing power, and the global price level has shown a downward trend. In recent years, developed countries in the West have tried to raise the inflation rate to close but not more than 2% through various macroeconomic policy means, but this has never been possible. An important reason behind this phenomenon is that China's strong manufacturing capabilities have depressed the global price level. This is a reflection of globalization's global extension of industrial chains, supply chains, and value chains, and global industrial transfers to promote global employment and wealth transfers.
In addition, there are two specific interrelated factors that cannot be ignored:
First, the contingent of industrial workers has shrunk. Industrial workers and trade unions have played an important role in Western party politics, but with the transfer of globalized industries, the ranks of manufacturing workers in Western developed countries have shrunk, and the service industry has become a pillar industry. Traditional manufacturing industry is mostly labor-intensive industry, industrial workers work on the assembly line, the organization discipline is strong, and the coverage of trade unions is wide, providing a strong foundation for its political organization and mobilization ability. With the shrinking of the traditional manufacturing industry, the number of industrial workers has decreased, and most of the service industry employees are scattered and the organizational discipline is weak. This means that the political organization ability and political mobilization ability of low-income groups have been greatly weakened, and it is difficult to form and exert a unified force in the political life of the country, and it is difficult to maintain and realize their own rights and interests. And those bourgeois parties and politicians can therefore openly ignore the interests and demands of this group without paying a price.
The second is the metamorphosis of left-wing parties, which Piketty calls "Brahmanization." Today's left-wing parties in the West are no longer the same as those of the past. Taking Europe as an example, the era when the British Labour Party was based on industrial workers as the mass base is no longer over, and most of the political positions in continental European countries have been occupied by the center-right. Once upon a time, the mass base of the Democratic Party in the United States was workers and grassroots people, and the supporters of the Republican Party were big businessmen and big capitalists. Today, this pattern has been upended. The people at the bottom, represented by unemployed middle-aged whites, are the largest and most stable basic plate in the election of Trump and the Republican Party, and the "tall" Wall Street elite has become a supporter of the Democratic Party. The new US President Biden will serve the US middle class, reshape the US middle class, and expand the middle class group as the core policy goals in his campaign and governing platform. The Democratic Party recognizes that the middle class is its mass base and source of power, and if this group continues to weaken and does not have their support, the Democratic Party will not be able to govern effectively and will not be able to maintain its position in future elections.
The impact of changes in the international political and economic pattern on China's external environment
How to view the changes in the world pattern brought about by the evolution of the capitalist system, and what impact these changes have on the external environment of China's development, based on the above combing, we can make such a main judgment.
First, the social contradictions within Western countries are intensifying and difficult to reconcile, the class contradictions that were once covered up have once been prominent, the original social contract has been broken, and society is facing restructuring. The formula of the "American Dream" of working hard, paying taxes in full, and having the opportunity to improve the living environment and change social status is no longer valid. Not only is the "American Dream" of traditional manufacturing workers in the "Rust Belt" of the United States broken, but also the white-collar jobs in the United States are disappearing, which further shakes the foundation of society, causing serious confrontation and tearing in society, and has been further amplified in the epidemic. European countries also face the challenges of insufficient innovation, weakening growth momentum, and migration impacting their social fabric. The emergence of new technologies, new industries and new formats will accelerate the deep deconstruction of American and European societies. Both the United States and Europe need to reconstruct a new social contract to alleviate social contradictions and maintain social stability. In this sense, both the United States and Europe will usher in the "post-neo-liberal capitalism phase", but it remains to be seen whether and how a new equilibrium can be found.
Second, the intensification of contradictions within Western countries inevitably reflects in their foreign strategies. It is foreseeable that for a long time, the foreign policy of Western countries will revolve around shifting contradictions, maintaining dominance, and maintaining competitiveness. These changes have a profound political, economic and social basis and motives, and are by no means the change of one person, one party or one moment or one event.
Third, in this process, the rapidly developing socialist China is regarded by Western countries as the greatest threat to its competitiveness and dominance, and has also become the most convenient scapegoat for its transfer of domestic contradictions, and thus has become its most important object of prevention, containment, and suppression. U.S.-China relations will remain unstable and uncertain for a long time to come, and are likely to be the norm. Sino-US disputes have become a major thread affecting international relations, and the instability of Sino-US relations will also increase the uncertainty of the entire international system.
Fourth, the domestic problems of Western countries have prompted fundamental changes in their foreign economic policies and have had a major impact on the global economic governance system.
The first is the change of direction. The basic policy orientation of international economic governance after World War II in the United States and Europe is to promote trade and investment liberalization, market opening and integration, which is the main driver of economic globalization. This was determined by its absolute competitive advantage and dominance in the world economy at that time and the need to rely on it to open the way for capital expansion. However, marked by Trump's rise to power, the basic policy orientation of the United States and Europe has gradually shifted from market opening to protectionism, and free trade is being replaced by so-called reciprocal and fair trade. It is inevitable that the rules and mechanisms of global economic governance will be reshaped, and it is also inevitable that the rules of international competition and the adjustment and reform of the international economic structure will inevitably occur.
The second is a change in priorities. The importance of science and technology as the primary productive force has been further highlighted, and it has become one of the most important determinants of competition between countries and the evolution of the international pattern. In line with this, the competition, competition and even confrontation around science and technology have become increasingly fierce, and relevant rules and mechanisms have become a new focus of the global economic governance game. Exchanges, cooperation and protection, blockade coexist, intertwined situation is bound to become the new normal, the United States-led Western society to promote a certain degree of "decoupling", in some key technologies "stuck neck" is inevitable.
The third is the change in the pattern. The contradictions and conflicts between the countries of the North and the South in terms of development space are difficult to reconcile, and the struggle around the reform of the World Trade Organization and climate change and other issues will exist for a long time. At the same time, the competition and struggle between different political, economic, and social systems have become increasingly prominent, and the contradictions between the East and the West have taken on the characteristics of the new era. The United States spares no effort to put first and foremost within the Western bloc, but also tries to cobble together a democratic alliance and engage in value diplomacy on a global scale. Whether and how countries with different systems can coexist and win together has become an important challenge facing global governance. The United States and other Western countries have promoted the re-layout of industrial return in the name of industrial chain and supply chain security. In this context, global coordination mechanisms such as the United Nations and the WTO will encounter different degrees of challenges and difficulties. Regional platforms and mechanisms are on the rise, and all kinds of and even exclusive "small circles" are popular.
Maintain strategic determination and grasp the strategic initiative
Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China's external environment is generally relatively certain. The world economy has experienced a relatively rapid and long period of expansion driven by a variety of factors, the international economic governance has generally maintained the direction of openness and integration, and although China's relations with major developed countries have gone through ups and downs, they have generally maintained the momentum of forward development. Through reform and opening up, we have continuously and deeply integrated into the world economy, made full use of the opportunities brought by economic globalization, and achieved sustained and rapid development. However, from the current point of view, these favorable conditions have changed to varying degrees, and these changes also constitute an important part of the world's major changes that have not occurred in a hundred years.
General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that in the coming period, we will face more headwinds and headwinds in the external environment, and we must be prepared to deal with a series of new risks and challenges. In the face of new risks, challenges and major changes, we must coordinate the unprecedented major changes in the world in a hundred years and the overall situation of the great rejuvenation strategy of the Chinese nation, base ourselves on the new development stage, implement the new development concept, build a new development pattern, hold high the banner of the community with a shared future for mankind, deeply participate in and actively lead the reform of global economic governance and regional economic cooperation, develop friendly and cooperative relations with all parties on the basis of equality and mutual benefit, and create a favorable external environment for China to achieve the second centenary goal and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
First, firmly maintain concentration and unshakable confidence. We must fully understand the risks and challenges brought about by changes in the external environment, especially the encirclement and suppression of the Western society led by the United States, fully understand its long-term, complex and arduous nature, and fully understand our own shortcomings. We must see china's huge advantages in institutional concepts, comprehensive strength, industry and market, see the obvious improvement of China's international discourse power, influence and shaping power, see the objective reality that china occupies the moral commanding heights in the world, and has received more help, and insists on taking its own road well, doing its own things well, not deviating from it and not slackening its strength.
Second, firmly hold high the banner of building a community with a shared future for mankind. Clarifying and thoroughly explaining to the international community the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind is not only an objective description of the closely linked interests of all countries and a common destiny, but also a powerful weapon to cope with common challenges, especially global challenges, but also the highest embodiment of multilateralism and the common goal pursued by the international community. This concept advocates concretization, territorialization, action, and indexing, and fully releases its great vitality.
Third, firmly grasp the new development stage, implement the new development concept, and build a new development pattern without wavering. Changes in the external environment require us to make necessary adjustments to the development model and path. While maintaining and expanding opening up, we should step up the construction of a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual cycles promoting each other. Coordinate the two major issues of development and security, make up for the shortcomings in key areas, key links and key elements as soon as possible, and enhance the autonomy, safety, stability and sustainability of development. Take the road of high-quality development, and rely on this to participate in and lead international economic cooperation at a higher level.
Fourth, we should unswervingly build international rules, mechanisms and an orderly environment conducive to China's development. Adhere to actively participating in and leading the reform of global economic governance and actively building a favorable regional cooperation pattern in China, and strive to complement and complement each other. Adhere to the principle of unifying responsibilities, rights and obligations, while adhering to the positioning of developing countries, flexibly handle the specific treatment issues in different fields, different mechanisms and different stages from the perspective of dynamics and development, and always maintain the initiative to ensure our development space and maximize our overall and fundamental interests. Great importance is attached to the evolution of rules in the fields of science and technology, climate change and other fields, and increase the guarantee of personnel, funds and mechanisms.
Fifth, firmly build the "Belt and Road" with high quality and unswervingly. The Belt and Road Initiative is a key move to practice the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind, build a new, more balanced and more dynamic international economic cycle system, and improve global economic governance, which has aroused great positive repercussions internationally. The joint construction of the "Belt and Road" will provide a solid guarantee and strong impetus for the construction of a new development pattern, and the development of the new development pattern will also provide a stronger impetus, more space and a better path for the joint construction of the "Belt and Road".
Sixth, we should unswervingly unify the spirit of struggle with the art of struggle. In terms of fundamental, core interests, and major concerns, we should carry forward the spirit of struggle and seek cooperation through struggle; when necessary, we should dare to show our swords and strike a decisive punch, so as to avoid a hundred punches. At the same time, we should pay attention to strategy, strive to combine the firmness of principles with the flexibility of strategy, grasp the timeliness and effectiveness, and always focus on the main contradictions. Tell the Chinese story well in an amiable, respectable and credible way, and strive for the broadest understanding, recognition and support in the world.
(Author: Wang Xiaolong, Director General, Department of International Economic Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Source: Learning Times, October 29, 2021)