Lin Yifu: Interpreting the "Fourth Pole" again - the roadmap for the construction of the Twin Cities Economic Circle in China's Fourth Pole, Chengdu-Chongqing Region
Finance and economics
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The CPC Central Committee and the State Council recently issued the "Outline of the Planning for the Construction of the Twin Cities Economic Circle in the Chengdu-Chongqing Region" (hereinafter referred to as the "Outline"), marking the official beginning of the national strategy of building a strong and distinctive twin-city economic circle through the three five-year plans. In terms of specific content, the Outline is not only a deepening of the Regional Planning of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone issued in 2011 and the Development Plan for the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration issued in 2016, but also a "new third-line construction" in the new era in a strategic sense. The construction of the third line in the 1960s and 1970s also went through three five-year plans, and the "two bases and one line" in the southwest region, especially in the Chengdu-Chongqing region (the "two bases" are the conventional weapons industrial base centered on Chongqing, the steel industrial base centered on Panzhihua, and the "first line" is to build the trunk line of the Chengkun Railway) is the top priority of the construction of the third line, and by the early stage of reform and opening up, the regional GDP of the Chengdu-Chongqing region exceeded 7% of the country, higher than the current proportion.
According to the goals set in the Outline, by 2035, Chongqing and Chengdu will enter the ranks of modern international cities, the urban system of coordinated development of large, medium, and small cities will be more perfect, infrastructure interconnection will be basically realized, scientific and technological innovation centers with national influence will be basically completed, the advantages of world-class advanced manufacturing clusters will be fully formed, the modern industrial system will mature, the open economic system integrated into the world will be basically completed, the quality of people's lives will be greatly improved, and the ability to support and drive high-quality development in the country will be significantly enhanced. Become an active growth pole and a strong source of power with international influence.
General Secretary Xi Jinping has stressed many times that we must bear in mind two overall situations, one is the strategic overall situation of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and the other is the great changes in the world that have not occurred in a hundred years, which is the basic starting point of our planning work. On August 24 last year, General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over a symposium of experts in the economic and social fields, at which the general secretary stressed that we should look at the new opportunities and challenges in the new development stage with dialectical thinking. It is necessary to make overall plans for the overall situation of the great rejuvenation strategy of the Chinese nation and the great changes in the world that have not occurred in a hundred years, profoundly understand the new characteristics and new requirements brought about by the development and changes of the main contradictions in our society, profoundly understand the new contradictions and new challenges brought about by the complicated international environment, enhance the awareness of opportunities and risks, accurately identify changes, respond scientifically, take the initiative to seek changes, have the courage to open the top of the wind boat, be good at turning crises into opportunities, and strive to achieve higher quality, more efficient, fairer, more sustainable, and more secure development.
Promoting the construction of the twin-city economic circle in the Chengdu-Chongqing region is in line with the objective requirements of China's high-quality economic development, is a major strategic support for promoting coordinated regional development under the new situation, forming a regional economic layout with complementary advantages and high-quality development, and is also a major measure to build a new development pattern with the domestic large cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual cycles promoting each other, which is conducive to forming an important growth pole for high-quality development in the western region and enhancing the population and economic carrying capacity; it is conducive to building a strategic highland for inland opening up and a new base for participating in international competition. It is conducive to absorbing the population of ecological function zones into urban clusters, so that the western region can form a new pattern of key development of advantageous areas and key protection of ecological function areas, protect the ecological environment of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the western region, and enhance spatial governance and protection capabilities. The Chengdu-Chongqing Twin Cities Economic Circle will play a supporting role in promoting the large-scale development of the western region in the new era, play a leading role in jointly building the "Belt and Road", play an exemplary role in promoting the green development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and shoulder a more important mission in the new journey of comprehensively building a modern socialist country.
The Central Committee has proposed from a new and higher starting point in history that from 2020 to the middle of this century, we will comprehensively build a socialist modern power in two steps, and basically realize socialist modernization by 2035. When talking about the 14th Five-Year Plan and the long-term goals for 2035, General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed that it is entirely possible to double the total economic volume or per capita income by 2035. The goal of "doubling in two" is equivalent to recreating another 100 trillion Yuan Chinese economy, which requires an average annual growth rate of 4.73% over the next 15 years. In 2020, the total economic volume of the 7 coastal provinces with the highest level of development led by the Yangtze River Delta, the Greater Bay Area and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Tripolar has accounted for 40.58% of the country, and the current overall level of the coastal area has in fact reached the level of medium-developed countries, and the space for the advantages of the latecomers has been narrowed under the suppression of the "card neck" of developed countries. The realization of the goal affects the overall situation of the first step of the two-step walk.
Therefore, in order to ensure the realization of the first step goal of building a socialist modern power in two steps, it is necessary to seek regions with strong support capacity and development potential as new growth poles with overall driving roles in areas other than coastal areas. Located at the intersection of the "Belt and Road" and the Yangtze River Economic Belt, Chengdu-Chongqing region is the starting point of the new land-sea corridor in the west, with the unique advantages of connecting the southwest and northwest, connecting East Asia with Southeast Asia and South Asia; the region has excellent ecological endowments, rich energy and mineral resources, dense towns and winds, and diverse winds and materials, and is the most densely populated, the strongest industrial foundation, the strongest innovation ability, the broadest market space and the highest degree of openness in western China. On January 3, 2020, General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over the sixth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, and made a major decision and deployment to promote the construction of the twin-city economic circle in the Chengdu-Chongqing region and build an important growth pole for high-quality development, providing fundamental compliance and important guidance for the development of the Chengdu-Chongqing region in the coming period.
The Outline of the National Comprehensive Three-Dimensional Transportation Network Planning Issued by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on February 24 this year has confirmed the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin Cities Economic Circle and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as China's four poles. The "Outline" clearly defines the three major strategic tasks of the Twin Cities Economic Circle in the Chengdu-Chongqing region:
The first major strategic task: to play a supporting role in promoting the large-scale development of the western region in the new era. The Guiding Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Promoting the Large-scale Development of the Western Region in the New Era and Forming a New Pattern issued on May 17, 2020 clearly require that by 2035, the western region will basically achieve socialist modernization, and the basic public services, infrastructure accessibility, and people's living standards will be roughly the same as in the eastern region. The western region accounts for 71 percent of the country's total area and 27 percent of the country's total population; the problem of unbalanced and inadequate development is still conspicuous; the task of consolidating and overcoming poverty is still arduous; the development gap with the eastern region is still relatively large; the tasks of safeguarding national unity, social stability, and national security are still arduous; and they are still the shortcomings and weak links in realizing socialist modernization. In addition to the southwest region, the western region is mainly located west of the "Hu Huanyong Line", the natural background is poor, the ecological environment bearing capacity is weak, and the Chengdu-Chongqing area, which is mainly located east of the "Hu Huanyong Line", has a strong carrying capacity, and the permanent population of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration at the end of 2020 is close to 98 million people, which is equivalent to the total population of other urban agglomerations in the western region. With the Chengdu-Chongqing region's twin-city economic circle in the middle and dominating the four major southwest and northwest urban agglomerations of Qianzhong City Cluster, Central Yunnan City Agglomeration, Guanzhong Urban Agglomeration, and Lanxi Urban Agglomeration with a total population of about 90 million people, it can carry more than half of the population of the western region with an area of less than one-tenth of the western region, and relying on the arteries of Yukun, Chengkun, Chenggui, Yugui, Yuxi, Xicheng, Lanyu, Chenglan, Chengxi, and Sichuan-Tibet, a new pattern of large-scale development of the western region can be formed. This is why the "Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and the Long-term Goals for 2035" includes the construction of the Twin Cities Economic Circle in the Chengdu-Chongqing Region in The First Section of Chapter 9, Chapter 32, "Promoting the Formation of a New Pattern for the Large-scale Development of the Western Region".
The second strategic task: to play an exemplary role in promoting the green development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The Yangtze River Basin covers an area of 1.8 million square kilometers, carries about half of the country's population and economy, and is the main national land space for the Chinese nation to recuperate. The high-quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is first of all to do a good job in the ecological protection of the Yangtze River, and the protection of the Yangtze River is first of all the Chengdu-Chongqing region located in the upper reaches. The "Outline" puts the restoration of the ecological environment of the Yangtze River in an overwhelming position, deeply practices the concept that green water and green mountains are golden mountains and silver mountains, adheres to the concept that landscapes, forests, fields, lakes and grasses are a community of life, deeply implements the main functional area strategy, and comprehensively accelerates the construction of ecological civilization. Located in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, the Chengdu-Chongqing region is the main water source of the Yangtze River, which is crucial to maintaining national ecological security, and the surrounding areas of Chengdu-Chongqing are not only relatively fragile in ecology and backward in economic development, but also face the dual pressure of consolidating poverty alleviation and ecological protection. Enhance the carrying capacity of the twin-city economic circle in the Chengdu-Chongqing region, and guide the influx of population in the surrounding ecological functional areas and underdeveloped areas such as the Qinba Mountains, Wuling Mountains, Wumeng Mountains, Tibet-related Prefectures, and Liangshan Mountains in the surrounding areas, which is conducive to ecological environmental protection and consolidating and improving the results of poverty alleviation, and promoting the coordinated development of urban and rural areas. The Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration has shown strong demographic appeal, with nearly 7 million more permanent residents in 2020 than at the end of 2014. However, the total population of the four national key ecological function zones of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, namely the Soil and Water Conservation Ecological Function Zone, the Sichuan-Yunnan Forest and Biodiversity Ecological Function Zone, the Qinba Biodiversity Ecological Function Zone, and the Wuling Mountain Biodiversity and Soil and Water Conservation Ecological Function Zone, has a total population of more than 30 million people, and the population of Liangshan Prefecture, Zhaotong City and Bijie City, which is adjacent to the Twin Cities Economic Circle of the Chengdu-Chongqing Region alone, is also nearly 17 million. Building the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin Cities Economic Circle into China's Fourth Pole can not only absorb a large number of people in ecological function zones, reduce the pressure on the population in ecologically fragile areas, further build ecological barriers in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the western region, but also drive the overall development of surrounding areas and enhance the endogenous power of green development, especially to create a consumer market for the transformation of ecological products.
The third strategic task: to play a leading role in the joint construction of the "Belt and Road". China's current external circulation mainly depends on the 7 coastal provinces with the highest level of development, for example, in 2020, according to the total import and export volume of domestic destinations and source areas, 7 coastal provinces accounted for nearly 70%, in addition to the three provinces and one city in the Yangtze River Delta accounted for a total of 36.63%, the three provinces in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the 7 provinces in the four upstream provinces accounted for less than 8.67%. Obviously, the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt still have huge potential for opening up. At the same time, the external circulation potential of the "Belt and Road" also needs to be tapped, for example, in 2020, China's total import and export volume of goods will be 32.16 trillion yuan, exports will be 17.93 trillion yuan, and imports will be 14.23 trillion yuan; the total import and export volume of countries along the "Belt and Road" will be 9.37 trillion yuan, although it will increase by 1.0% over the previous year, but it accounts for less than 30% of the country, and the exports of which are only 5.43 trillion yuan, accounting for only 30% of the country. Imports are only 3.94 trillion yuan, accounting for only 27.7% of the country. Therefore, General Secretary Xi Jinping stressed at the symposium on comprehensively promoting the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in November 2020 that it is necessary to promote the coordinated development of the upstream, middle and lower reaches, guide the orderly transfer of capital, technology and labor-intensive industries in the downstream areas to the middle and upper reaches, and retain the key links of the industrial chain; it is necessary to coordinate the opening up along the coastal rivers and inland, accelerate the cultivation of more inland open highlands, improve the level of opening up along the border, and accelerate the construction of the "Belt and Road" strategic fulcrum in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Located at the intersection of the "Belt and Road" and the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the Chengdu-Chongqing region is not only the starting point of the new land-sea corridor in the west, but also the main force of the China-Europe express train, and directly adjacent to Southeast Asia and South Asia through the integration of the Great Southwest to Africa. The China-Europe Express (Chengdu-Chongqing) has run more than 3,800 flights, the new land-sea corridor in the west reaches 311 ports in 106 countries (regions), and the New China-Myanmar Corridor and the China-Laos Corridor have also begun trial operation. The construction of the Twin Cities Economic Circle in the Chengdu-Chongqing region as a strategic link between the "Belt and Road" and the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and the creation of an open gateway for the country from south to west, is conducive to accelerating the formation of a new development pattern of double circulation.
As a construction drawing for the construction of China's fourth pole, the "Outline" must firmly grasp the four major points: the integration of Chengdu and Chongqing, the overall advancement, the key breakthroughs, and the leadership of the overall situation.
First of all, the "Outline" draws a new development pattern of Chengdu and Chongqing according to the "circle" and will accelerate the integration of Chengdu and Chongqing. To build China's fourth pole, the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin Cities Economic Circle must play a greater strategic role in the large-scale development of the western region in the new era, the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the construction of the "Belt and Road", and shoulder a greater mission in the new journey of national socialist modernization. At present, the population size and economic volume of the twin-city economic circle in the Chengdu-Chongqing region are less than 7% of the country, which is not as good as the status of the whole country in the early days of reform and opening up, and the per capita regional GDP is not as high as the national average, and the total economic volume of the main city of Chongqing and Chengdu accounts for more than 50% of the entire region, with a total of more than 3 trillion yuan, and the combination can be comparable to the north, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. Therefore, the core task of the "Outline of the Planning for the Construction of the Twin Cities Economic Circle in the Chengdu-Chongqing Region" is to completely curb the problem of the independent development of Chengdu and Chongqing, promote the Chengdu-Chongqing integration in an all-round way, comprehensively radiate the driving area, and build the fourth pole of China. Therefore, the basic idea of the "Outline" is that we put forward in last year's report, according to the "circle" to plan the integration and development of the "air singing" into "two dragon play pearls", to build a new pattern of development of the twin-city economic circle: first of all, to comprehensively enhance the development level of the two dragons of the two cities, secondly to cultivate a modern metropolitan circle around the main city of Chongqing and the two dragons of Chengdu, and then to promote the development of the Chongqing and Chengdu metropolitan areas, the integrated development of the northeast and northeast Sichuan regions, the integrated development of the southern Sichuan and western Chongqing regions, and the radiation drive the development of the two provinces and cities of Sichuan and Chongqing. Over the past year since the central government proposed to promote the construction of the twin-city economic circle in the Chengdu-Chongqing region, Sichuan-Chongqing has established a multi-level cooperation mechanism, signed a total of 252 cooperation agreements, implemented 67 major cooperation projects, and 206 matters have been realized in the Sichuan-Chongqing General Office, with a total of more than 3.91 million pieces, and an average of 15,000 cases per day since its launch, and the development concept, mechanism and content of the integration of Chengdu and Chongqing have gradually deepened and solidified.
Secondly, the Outline clarifies that the eight key cooperation construction contents will promote the economic circle as a whole. To build China's fourth pole, we must respect objective laws, give play to comparative advantages, and build the twin-city economic circle in the Chengdu-Chongqing region into an important economic center with national influence, a scientific and technological innovation center, a new highland for reform and opening up, and a livable place for high-quality life. The Outline clarifies the specific contents of key cooperation from eight aspects, such as jointly building a modern infrastructure network, coordinating the construction of a modern industrial system, jointly building a scientific and technological innovation center with national influence, building an international consumption destination with Bashu characteristics, jointly building an ecological barrier in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, jointly building an inland reform and opening up highland, jointly promoting the integration of urban and rural development, and strengthening the co-construction and sharing of public services. The Chengdu-Chongqing region is deep inland in the west, and due to the weak infrastructure, the transaction costs of economic activities are too high, and the market radius is relatively short, resulting in a large number of industries and technologies with potential comparative advantages that cannot form a competitive advantage, and it is also a key bottleneck hindering the opening up of the inland. Therefore, the "Outline" puts the joint construction of a modern infrastructure network in the first place, especially adhering to the principle of transportation first, such as building an international aviation gateway hub, jointly building a twin-city economic circle on the track, improving the highway system of the twin-city economic circle and promoting the construction of a shipping hub in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the construction of the twin-city economic circle in the Chengdu-Chongqing area should accelerate the integration of urban and rural development and strengthen the co-construction and sharing of public services, and improve the urbanization level and energy level of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration as a whole. At present, the urbanization rate of Chengdu and Chongqing is not as low as the national average, and there are still nearly 40 million rural permanent residents, especially in Sichuan, except for Chengdu, the urbanization rate of 14 cities in the economic circle is only about 50%. This is also the practical consideration of the Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-term Goals for the Year 2035, which places the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin Cities Economic Circle in Article 31 of Part VIII,"Promoting a New Type of Urbanization with People as the Core", and the reason why the National Development and Reform Commission relies on the inter-ministerial joint meeting on urbanization work and urban-rural integration development instead of the central government to set up a leading group.
Moreover, the key to the success of China's fourth pole construction lies in the focus on breaking through the real economy. The actual status of the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin Cities Economic Circle as China's fourth pole ultimately needs to be determined by economic strength, not policy documents. The Chengdu-Chongqing Twin Cities Economic Circle has great potential for development, and its population size is 1.2 times that of Germany in 2020, but the regional GDP is only a quarter of Germany's, which means that the per capita GDP of the Chengdu-Chongqing region is only one-fifth of Germany's. Germany, as the world's fourth largest economy and the largest economy in Europe, looks out of reach, but in fact, by 2035, if the average annual growth rate of regional GDP reaches 8%, the Chengdu-Chongqing twin-city economic circle can match Germany's current level, considering that it can also absorb a large number of population inflows from the surrounding areas, this goal is not difficult to achieve, on this basis, by the middle of this century, when the second centenary goal is achieved, it will be able to surpass Germany in the same period. We also pointed out in last year's report that if we follow the two bottom-up and top-down development ideas of "taking advantage of the situation" and "playing the pipa backwards," the government and the market, the central and local governments, and the internal and external efforts will certainly be able to realize the historical mission entrusted by the central authorities, and it is absolutely an ideal that can be achieved by building the chengdu-Chongqing area twin-city economic circle into China's fourth development pole. Industry and science and technology are the key to enriching the strength of the economic circle of the two cities, the "Outline" not only according to the comparative advantages of the Chengdu-Chongqing region from lemons, squeezed vegetables, pigs to Sichuan cuisine, hot pot, liquor, bowl tea to automobiles, equipment, materials, new energy and vigorously develop the digital economy and greater efforts to undertake industrial transfer and other industries to do a comprehensive guidance, to accelerate the formation of a world-class industrial cluster, but also according to the innovation chain industrial chain coordination needs "backwards pipa" layout to build a Chongqing comprehensive scientific center and the implementation of the Chengdu-Chongqing science and technology innovation comprehensive plan It is necessary to speed up the formation of a nationwide scientific and technological innovation center. As the fourth pole, it is necessary to strengthen the connection with other three poles, borrow chickens and eggs, borrow ladders to go upstairs, and borrow ships to go to sea, forming a powerful synergy of double circulation. The Outline also makes clear arrangements for major strategies such as the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta, especially the docking of science and technology and industry, and the docking of elements and ports.
Finally, China's fourth pole should not wait for the time to wait, only to strengthen the support and driving ability to lead the overall situation. Although the planning scope of the Outline of the Planning for the Construction of the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin-City Economic Circle is the same as that of the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration Development Plan, it is even smaller than the planning scope of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone Regional Plan, which may confuse all walks of life about the connotation and extension of the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin Cities Economic Circle and the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration. Although the construction of the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin Cities Economic Circle spatially relies on the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration, it is not a reproduction of the development plan of the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration, nor is it a major national regional strategy such as the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta. Promote coordinated regional development", and the "Outline of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and the Long-term Goals for 2035" only includes it in Chapter 9, Chapter 32, Section 1,"Promoting the Formation of a New Pattern for the Large-scale Development of the Western Region" instead of Chapter 31 "In-depth Implementation of Major Regional Strategies". This is not to weaken the strategic position of the twin-city economic circle in the Chengdu-Chongqing region in the overall situation of national development, but to speed up the pace of construction and rapidly upgrade the development level without waiting for the time, so as to shoulder a more important mission in the new journey of comprehensively building a modern socialist country. After the construction of the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin Cities Economic Circle after one or two five-year plans, the next more important historical mission is to lead the integrated development of the three provinces and one city in the southwest (Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan). If by 2035, driven by the leadership of the chengdu-Chongqing area twin-city economic circle, the integrated development of the three provinces and one city in the southwest can reach the level of integrated development of the three provinces and one city in the Yangtze River Delta, even if the population size remains unchanged, the new economic volume alone will exceed 10 trillion yuan, and other conditions will contribute one-tenth of the force to the goal of "two doubling", which will play a decisive role in the basic realization of modernization in the country by 2035. Only in this way can we live up to the expectations of the central government and the people of the whole country for China's fourth pole, and become a veritable active growth pole and a strong source of power with international influence.
[Lin Yifu: Member of chang'an Avenue Reading Club, Dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics, Peking University]
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Editor-in-charge: Cai Muzhen; Preliminary Review: Cheng Ziqian; Review: Li Yufan
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