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國際能源署周五（5月17日）表示，對能源轉型至關重要的礦産價格大幅下跌掩蓋了投資不足可能很快導緻的能源礦産短缺。
在對此類關鍵原材料市場的第二次年度審查中，國際能源署指出，因供應增加并超過需求，電動汽車、風力渦輪機和太陽能電池闆的關鍵礦産價格回落至新冠疫情爆發前的水準。
雖然價格下跌對消費者來說是個好消息，但總部位于巴黎的國際能源署表示，這阻礙了滿足未來需求所需要的投資。随着許多國家試圖在未來10年逐漸取消燃油汽車的銷售，對關鍵新能源礦産資源的需求将飙升。
負責向發達經濟體提供政策建議的國際能源署預計，到2035年，如果世界各國要滿足它們計劃中的環境保護條件，目前宣布的投資項目将隻能滿足70%的銅和50%的锂的需求。
因锂價上漲，世界礦業巨頭紛紛投資開采導緻供過于求，價格大幅下跌
這兩種金屬是制造電動汽車的關鍵原材料。
國際能源署執行董事法蒂赫·比羅爾在一份聲明中表示：“安全和可持續地擷取關鍵礦産，對于平穩和負擔得起的清潔能源轉型至關重要。”
他補充說：“世界對太陽能電池闆、電動汽車和電池等技術的需求增長很快，但如果沒有可靠和不斷擴大的關鍵礦産供應，我們就無法滿足這一需求。”
國際能源署預測，随着各國在本世紀中葉實作淨零排放的目标，到2040年，關鍵能源轉型所需的礦産總市場規模将增加一倍多，達到7700億美元。
新能源行業對銅箔的需求大增
它發現，在供應多樣化方面隻取得了有限的進展，這是一個關鍵問題，因為最近的新冠疫情大流行擾亂供應鍊和地緣政治緊張帶來了開采風險。
國際能源署呼籲加大回收材料的努力、創新和鼓勵人們改變生活方式，以緩解潛在的供應壓力。
該署還表示，在2040年以前需要約8000億美元的礦業投資，才能使全世界将全球變暖限制在比工業化以前的氣溫高1.5攝氏度的水準。
然而，它警告說，“如果沒有大力回收和再利用，新的開采資本需求将需要提高三分之一。”
Energy transition risks critical mineral shortage: IEA. By Isabel Malsang and Nick Perry on AFP, May 17, 2024
The sharp drop in prices for minerals critical to the green energy transition is masking a looming shortage due to inadequate investment, the International Energy Agency said Friday.
In its second annual review of the market for such critical materials, the IEA noted prices for minerals key for electric vehicles, wind turbines and solar panels fell back to pre-pandemic levels as supplies caught up with and surpassed demand.
While the price drops are good news for consumers, the Paris-based agency expressed concern it will deter investment needed to meet demand, which is set to soar as many nations try to phase out sales of new internal combustion engine cars in the next decade.
The IEA, which advises advanced economies on energy policy, calculated that announced projects will be able to meet only 70 percent of copper and 50 percent of lithium requirements in 2035, in a scenario in which countries worldwide meet their national climate goals.
Both metals are key for manufacturing electric vehicles.
"Secure and sustainable access to critical minerals is essential for smooth and affordable clean energy transitions," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement.
"The world's appetite for technologies such as solar panels, electric cars and batteries is growing fast –- but we cannot satisfy it without reliable and expanding supplies of critical minerals," he added.
The IEA forecasts the combined market size of key energy transition minerals is set to more than double to $770 billion by 2040 as countries target net zero emissions by mid-century.
It found only limited progress has been made in diversifying supplies, a key issue given the recent experience with the pandemic snarling supply chains and geopolitical tensions creating risks to access.
The IEA called for stepping up efforts to recycle materials, innovate and encourage behavioural changes in order to ease potential supply strains.
It also said some $800 billion of investment in mining is required by 2040 to put the world on track to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels.
It warned, however, that "without the strong uptake of recycling and reuse, mining capital requirements would need to be one-third higher."