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国际能源署周五（5月17日）表示，对能源转型至关重要的矿产价格大幅下跌掩盖了投资不足可能很快导致的能源矿产短缺。
在对此类关键原材料市场的第二次年度审查中，国际能源署指出，因供应增加并超过需求，电动汽车、风力涡轮机和太阳能电池板的关键矿产价格回落至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。
虽然价格下跌对消费者来说是个好消息，但总部位于巴黎的国际能源署表示，这阻碍了满足未来需求所需要的投资。随着许多国家试图在未来10年逐步取消燃油汽车的销售，对关键新能源矿产资源的需求将飙升。
负责向发达经济体提供政策建议的国际能源署预计，到2035年，如果世界各国要满足它们计划中的环境保护条件，目前宣布的投资项目将只能满足70%的铜和50%的锂的需求。
因锂价上涨，世界矿业巨头纷纷投资开采导致供过于求，价格大幅下跌
这两种金属是制造电动汽车的关键原材料。
国际能源署执行董事法蒂赫·比罗尔在一份声明中表示：“安全和可持续地获取关键矿产，对于平稳和负担得起的清洁能源转型至关重要。”
他补充说：“世界对太阳能电池板、电动汽车和电池等技术的需求增长很快，但如果没有可靠和不断扩大的关键矿产供应，我们就无法满足这一需求。”
国际能源署预测，随着各国在本世纪中叶实现净零排放的目标，到2040年，关键能源转型所需的矿产总市场规模将增加一倍多，达到7700亿美元。
新能源行业对铜箔的需求大增
它发现，在供应多样化方面只取得了有限的进展，这是一个关键问题，因为最近的新冠疫情大流行扰乱供应链和地缘政治紧张带来了开采风险。
国际能源署呼吁加大回收材料的努力、创新和鼓励人们改变生活方式，以缓解潜在的供应压力。
该署还表示，在2040年以前需要约8000亿美元的矿业投资，才能使全世界将全球变暖限制在比工业化以前的气温高1.5摄氏度的水平。
然而，它警告说，“如果没有大力回收和再利用，新的开采资本需求将需要提高三分之一。”
Energy transition risks critical mineral shortage: IEA. By Isabel Malsang and Nick Perry on AFP, May 17, 2024
The sharp drop in prices for minerals critical to the green energy transition is masking a looming shortage due to inadequate investment, the International Energy Agency said Friday.
In its second annual review of the market for such critical materials, the IEA noted prices for minerals key for electric vehicles, wind turbines and solar panels fell back to pre-pandemic levels as supplies caught up with and surpassed demand.
While the price drops are good news for consumers, the Paris-based agency expressed concern it will deter investment needed to meet demand, which is set to soar as many nations try to phase out sales of new internal combustion engine cars in the next decade.
The IEA, which advises advanced economies on energy policy, calculated that announced projects will be able to meet only 70 percent of copper and 50 percent of lithium requirements in 2035, in a scenario in which countries worldwide meet their national climate goals.
Both metals are key for manufacturing electric vehicles.
"Secure and sustainable access to critical minerals is essential for smooth and affordable clean energy transitions," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement.
"The world's appetite for technologies such as solar panels, electric cars and batteries is growing fast –- but we cannot satisfy it without reliable and expanding supplies of critical minerals," he added.
The IEA forecasts the combined market size of key energy transition minerals is set to more than double to $770 billion by 2040 as countries target net zero emissions by mid-century.
It found only limited progress has been made in diversifying supplies, a key issue given the recent experience with the pandemic snarling supply chains and geopolitical tensions creating risks to access.
The IEA called for stepping up efforts to recycle materials, innovate and encourage behavioural changes in order to ease potential supply strains.
It also said some $800 billion of investment in mining is required by 2040 to put the world on track to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels.
It warned, however, that "without the strong uptake of recycling and reuse, mining capital requirements would need to be one-third higher."