全球央行，即将大逆轉？

3月21日，瑞士央行打響降息“第一槍”，市場将其視為“裡程碑”式的信号，開始競相押注其他主要央行将“跟進”降息。

全球央行政策大逆轉會就此拉開帷幕嗎？

歐美央行會“跟進”降息嗎？

2022年，疫情疊加能源供應緊缺帶來物價飙升，讓全球通脹率在這一年達到了本世紀以來的最高峰。美聯儲開啟了40年來最快的加息周期，其他主要央行也紛紛開啟了新一輪加息周期。

在持續緊縮的貨币政策作用下，現如今全球“抗通脹”的鬥争已經取得了顯著成效。最新資料顯示，美國、歐元區2月通脹率分别為3.2%和2.6%，大多數發達經濟體的通脹率已經達到了2%。

最新美聯儲利率決議繼續“按兵不動”，并維持年内三次降息的預期不變，釋放出比市場預期更為鴿派的信号；伴随英國央行最新利率決議表達出的樂觀通脹前景，市場加碼押注英國央行和歐央行在6月降息的預期。

目前，貨币市場對歐央行在6月前降息的預期從周三的近80%升至90%；對英國央行6月降息已經從周三的60%躍升至約80%。截至發稿，Fedwatch工具顯示期貨市場預計美聯儲在6月降息的可能性為68.5%。

此外，新興市場經濟體諸如巴西、墨西哥、匈牙利和捷克共和國，均已經開始降息。

麥格理（Macquarie）銀行在給客戶的一份說明中說：

"各國央行......正在或即将再次放寬政策。”

匯率也是一大驅動因素。瑞郎走軟有望緩解其他地區的輸入性通脹，加快其他主要央行的降息步伐。

在美國2月份通脹資料好于預期之後，美聯儲在周三的利率決議中堅持了2024年三次降息的預測，同時大幅上調了經濟增長預期。

富達國際（Fidelity International）宏觀和戰略資産配置全球主管Salman Ahmed将其解釋為：

“美聯儲希望降息，希望有機會啟動降息周期，但資料并沒有給他們提供這個切入點。”

有觀點認為，在仍高于目标的通脹壓力下，歐美央行更可能以“最小增量”行動，定期暫停加息。

市場似乎太興奮了

不過，在接受“全球央行集體轉向”的結論前，需要注意瑞士央行降息這一行動本身具有特殊性：

一是瑞士2月通脹率為1.2%，已經達到該國央行2%的通脹目标；

二是瑞郎持續走強，甚至引發了該國對通貨緊縮的擔憂，成為了央行選擇率先開啟寬松周期的關鍵觸發點。

而對于尚在高通脹壓力下“掙紮”的其它歐美主要央行來說，這兩個觸發條件均尚未實作。

Ahmed警告稱，美聯儲應等待更長時間才開始放松貨币政策，而歐央行和英國央行如果先行一步，将面臨貨币疲軟和通脹加劇的風險。

就全球最大央行美聯儲而言，降息似乎是更為“進退兩難”的決定。

本月早些時候，美聯儲鮑威爾在國會作證時曾表示，政策制定者将在大選前“低頭做好我們的工作”，這進一步加強了市場此前的普遍預期，即：為了不影響11月的總統大選，市場普遍預計美聯儲“不得不”在此之前完成政策轉變。

另一邊，美國經濟正處在穩健增長的軌道上，聯儲也在最新利率決議中上調了經濟增長前景，從維穩角度考慮，“在通脹頑固時先不變、在經濟增長強勁時再降息”的路徑似乎更為穩妥。

甚至有觀點認為，世界經濟正在時刻經曆深刻變化，所謂的中性利率（既不刺激也不減緩增長的利率水準）也不乏上調的可能。

歐央行執委Isabel Schnabel本周曾表示：

“我們現在可能正面臨這樣一個轉折點。”

“與氣候轉型、數字化轉型和地緣政治變化相關的結構性挑戰所帶來的特殊投資需求，可能會對自然利率産生持續的積極影響。”

本文不構成個人投資建議，不代表平台觀點，市場有風險，投資需謹慎，請獨立判斷和決策。

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