全球央行，即将大逆转？

3月21日，瑞士央行打响降息“第一枪”，市场将其视为“里程碑”式的信号，开始竞相押注其他主要央行将“跟进”降息。

全球央行政策大逆转会就此拉开帷幕吗？

欧美央行会“跟进”降息吗？

2022年，疫情叠加能源供应紧缺带来物价飙升，让全球通胀率在这一年达到了本世纪以来的最高峰。美联储开启了40年来最快的加息周期，其他主要央行也纷纷开启了新一轮加息周期。

在持续紧缩的货币政策作用下，现如今全球“抗通胀”的斗争已经取得了显著成效。最新数据显示，美国、欧元区2月通胀率分别为3.2%和2.6%，大多数发达经济体的通胀率已经达到了2%。

最新美联储利率决议继续“按兵不动”，并维持年内三次降息的预期不变，释放出比市场预期更为鸽派的信号；伴随英国央行最新利率决议表达出的乐观通胀前景，市场加码押注英国央行和欧央行在6月降息的预期。

目前，货币市场对欧央行在6月前降息的预期从周三的近80%升至90%；对英国央行6月降息已经从周三的60%跃升至约80%。截至发稿，Fedwatch工具显示期货市场预计美联储在6月降息的可能性为68.5%。

此外，新兴市场经济体诸如巴西、墨西哥、匈牙利和捷克共和国，均已经开始降息。

麦格理（Macquarie）银行在给客户的一份说明中说：

"各国央行......正在或即将再次放宽政策。”

汇率也是一大驱动因素。瑞郎走软有望缓解其他地区的输入性通胀，加快其他主要央行的降息步伐。

在美国2月份通胀数据好于预期之后，美联储在周三的利率决议中坚持了2024年三次降息的预测，同时大幅上调了经济增长预期。

富达国际（Fidelity International）宏观和战略资产配置全球主管Salman Ahmed将其解释为：

“美联储希望降息，希望有机会启动降息周期，但数据并没有给他们提供这个切入点。”

有观点认为，在仍高于目标的通胀压力下，欧美央行更可能以“最小增量”行动，定期暂停加息。

市场似乎太兴奋了

不过，在接受“全球央行集体转向”的结论前，需要注意瑞士央行降息这一行动本身具有特殊性：

一是瑞士2月通胀率为1.2%，已经达到该国央行2%的通胀目标；

二是瑞郎持续走强，甚至引发了该国对通货紧缩的担忧，成为了央行选择率先开启宽松周期的关键触发点。

而对于尚在高通胀压力下“挣扎”的其它欧美主要央行来说，这两个触发条件均尚未实现。

Ahmed警告称，美联储应等待更长时间才开始放松货币政策，而欧央行和英国央行如果先行一步，将面临货币疲软和通胀加剧的风险。

就全球最大央行美联储而言，降息似乎是更为“进退两难”的决定。

本月早些时候，美联储鲍威尔在国会作证时曾表示，政策制定者将在大选前“低头做好我们的工作”，这进一步加强了市场此前的普遍预期，即：为了不影响11月的总统大选，市场普遍预计美联储“不得不”在此之前完成政策转变。

另一边，美国经济正处在稳健增长的轨道上，联储也在最新利率决议中上调了经济增长前景，从维稳角度考虑，“在通胀顽固时先不变、在经济增长强劲时再降息”的路径似乎更为稳妥。

甚至有观点认为，世界经济正在时刻经历深刻变化，所谓的中性利率（既不刺激也不减缓增长的利率水平）也不乏上调的可能。

欧央行执委Isabel Schnabel本周曾表示：

“我们现在可能正面临这样一个转折点。”

“与气候转型、数字化转型和地缘政治变化相关的结构性挑战所带来的特殊投资需求，可能会对自然利率产生持续的积极影响。”

本文不构成个人投资建议，不代表平台观点，市场有风险，投资需谨慎，请独立判断和决策。

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