美國暫停加息，對黃金價格和資本市場帶來什麼影響？

美國在2024年3月20日，如市場所料維持不加息的政策。這個對黃金市場和資本市場會帶來什麼影響？很多人比較關心。

首先，美國不加息的事實已經出來，維持到7月份。現在市場普遍解讀是美國一旦降息就意味着美國經濟開始衰退，美國的資本市場開始走弱，這是個基本邏輯。既然是這樣，美國不可能任由降息帶來的資本滑落和經濟滑落。是以較長時間維持不降息是美國的政策，但美國可能會适度的降息，在通脹達到合理範圍時，對市場進行寬松。但是美國現在維持了不降息，它對黃金市場的影響特别大。美加息代表美元升值，美元堅挺，就意味着黃金的價格會下跌，資本市場還會有一些較強勢的狀态。

是以很多人就會據此來看得到今後黃金市場不斷波動的情況。但是有兩個問題必須注意。第一，美國利息處于高位，這是個事實。第二，美國的股市處于高位也是事實。美國長期來看降息是個趨勢，但是美國可能會通過緩慢的降息來消化經濟帶來的沖擊，恐怕要注意到這一點。是以就不可對短期黃金的波動有過多的恐懼。但是按照3~5年來看，黃金是要上漲的。因為美國不斷提高國債，美元必然要貶值，就意味着黃金要升值。

這是一個基本的判斷，我們看市場是怎麼反應的。

李江濤

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