專家又讓老百姓花錢了……

1

在最近的一檔節目中，央視名嘴白岩松在鏡頭裡緊鎖眉頭、憂心忡忡、一臉真誠的問專家：

老百姓有錢但是他也不敢花，不願意花，您怎麼看待讓人願意花錢？

圖檔來源：網絡

不得不說，還得是人家白老師會問問題。

我想起了之前王朔對他的一個評價：一個有着莫名優越感的肉喇叭，還總愛緊鎖眉頭，扮演社會良心。

關于刺激消費，我在之前的文章《經濟學家吳曉求：不要再刺激内需了》中聊過，今天請允許我再唠叨兩句。

這個問題問的實在可笑，前提和問題本身就很荒謬。

老百姓敢不敢花錢的大前提是得有錢。

下面這張圖是申萬對于疫情後我們居民工資、财産淨收入、轉移淨收入、和經營性收入的一個推算。

圖檔來源：申萬宏源宏觀

還有一個資料，根據北師大中國收入配置設定研究院2021年發表的調查資料，大陸月收入2000元以下的人口約為9.64億。

就這經濟狀況，你能說老百姓有錢嗎？

扣除吃喝拉撒這些基本生活開支，還有醫療、教育、養老等後顧之憂。

如果這些都不談，就談怎麼讓老百姓花錢，這跟耍流氓有差別嗎？

2

有人說，我們有130萬億的居民存款呢！

這個就不得不聊一下，占總人口比重隻有0.33%，财富占比67%，人均财富6300多萬，人數大概460萬的富裕階層了。

這部分人的消費是往上的，往外的，他們本就不存在消費不足的問題，在他們身上還能再榨出花嗎？

現實是：富人的消費狀況是“飽和”的，窮人的消費是“透支”的。

不是說不能刺激消費，但刺激它不是常态，頻繁刺激可能不僅解決不了眼前問題，時間長了，都能搞出一堆後遺症來。

刺激就好比做手術前打麻藥，你幹打麻藥不做手術，時間久了，不僅麻藥沒用了，你的神經末梢可能也被打傻了。

内需消費要想起來，得讓這9億人的錢包鼓起來，這才是我們消費的基本盤和增量。

消費是收入的函數，更全面的表述應該是，消費是收入、收入預期和财富存量的函數。

如果你一方面承認“消費是收入的函數”，另一方面又希望通過增加消費拉動經濟增長，邏輯上是否是通的呢？

要增加居民消費需求就必須首先增加居民收入。

收入提高了，财富增值了，有了完善的社會保障，老百姓花錢這事真不用費盡心機去刺激。

3

經濟學家林毅夫在一段采訪中說：

投資拉動的經濟增長不可持續，要改成消費拉動的經濟增長。

我覺得提出這個看法的人呢，不是不懂經濟就是故意誤導中國。 

如果沒有勞動生産力水準提高帶來的家庭收入的增長，消費增長不可持續，如果收入不增長而消費增長，開始消費靠儲蓄，儲蓄用光後變成家庭的負債，積累到一定程度後，可能變成家庭破産。

在網上林教授的觀點也引來了一衆所謂的經濟學家和專家的批評。

他們的邏輯似乎也沒太大毛病：我們生産的終極目标是消費，當百姓消費增加時，會刺激市場需求，推動企業擴大生産，創造更多就業崗位，進而促進整個國民經濟的發展。

經濟增長的目的是不斷提高老百姓的消費能力和生活水準，但這是經濟增長的目标，而非手段或經濟邏輯。

尤其是當下很多家庭資産負債表受損的情況下，拉動消費刺激經濟可能适得其反。

發消費券，甚至是發錢我不反對，但僅僅是通過這種刺激消費是不行的，它不是主要手段,不能解決根本問題，源頭上還是要提高群眾的收入和購買力。

投資—消費是一個循環系統，但現在這個循環不暢了，或者壞了，堵了，怎麼辦？

需要有一個原始支點來打破它，讓它逐漸走上良性的循環，投資仍然是當下解決問題的原始終點。

我之前說過，居民70%的财富被鎖死在房子上，資産負債表受損嚴重，企業不願意借錢擴産，這個時候中央是最應該下場打破負循環的。

4

有人說，該修的路都修了，該蓋的房子都蓋的差不多了，該架的橋也都架了，投資過剩了。

政府投資基礎設施是公共産品，投資于公共産品一般既無商業回報，也難以産生現金流。

就拿近期大火特火的東北旅遊熱，冰雪世界那可是幾天為哈爾濱帶來了潑天的财富啊!

大陸廣義基礎設施投資遠遠沒有飽和，特别是在醫療、養老、教育、科研、地下管廊和資訊等新基建領域，中國的基礎設施存量遠遠落後于發達國家，在某些方面甚至不如一些開發中國家。

不少學者反對加大基礎設施投資力度，擔心搞“面子”工程、“豆腐渣”工程，浪費資源，甚至滋長腐敗。

這些擔心不無道理，但這是如何把關進行投資，而不是應不應該投的問題。

消費和投資互相促進的良性循環應該是這樣的：

廣義基礎設施投資增長——各類投資增長——收入增長——消費增長——收入增長——投資、消費增長——收入增長。

這個循環中,收入增長是起點,當下情況财政擴張廣義基礎設施投資是原始支撐點。

隻有這樣，找到消費和投資良性循環的起點，啟動投資、消費和經濟增長之間的良性互動才有可能。

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